4 ms·
Ergodicity is relevant here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity_economics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity_economics At the risk of oversimpl
by jl2718 5y ago
Ergodicity is relevant here: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity_economics https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergodicity_economics
At the risk of oversimplification, non-ergodicity means that you have to be stupid to get rich. A simple way to see that is gamblers ruin. If you start with $1 and 20 pulls on a slot machine that pays out double with 51% probability, only a complete moron could become a millionaire, but of course they would point to the 51% showing how they outsmarted everybody else.
What would a smart person do? They would determine a utility function for money, definitely sub linear, and bet the amount that would maximize their high probability minimum return. Most likely, that would be zero.
Life is like that. You only get so many pulls on the lever.