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I’m less worried about the police doing this than I am rogue nation, groups, and individuals. It’s only a matter of time until Hamas launches an armed, low flyi

I’m less worried about the police doing this than I am rogue nation, groups, and individuals. It’s only a matter of time until Hamas launches an armed, low flying, autonomous drone swarm in the heart of Tel Aviv. The book “Kill Decision” by Daniel Suarez convinced me that we have less to fear from government and more to fear from private actors when it comes to lethal drones. Actually, I’m really surprised it hasn’t happened already given the low cost.

virtuabhi 5y ago
Terrorist organizations have started drone attacks - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-airport-attack-from-nia-taking-over-the-case-to-israeli-anti-drone-systems-10-points-11624945922576.html https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-airport-attack-fro...
throwawayswede 5y ago
Israel uses "AI" controlled drones with no human contact to terrorize people in Gaza. Palestinians absolutely already manufacturer and deploy simple drones against Israeli military targets. Israeli terrorist army force (in a euphemistic doublespeak manner called defense force) does way more damage against civilians while Palestinians resist against an occupier.
pmoriarty 5y ago
"I'm less worried about the police doing this than I am rogue nation, groups, and individuals." Governments have killed exponentially more of their own people throughout history in genocides, pogroms, civil wars, starvations, and so on than have ever been killed by rogue nations, non-government groups or individuals.
bilbo0s 5y ago
I always thought targeted assassination will be the primary use of autonomous weapons. And since I don't really see any obvious means of authoritative attribution, I'm not really sure how you would stop it? I think it will be ultra popular. Not only with cartels looking to rid themselves of annoyances in Mexico. Also with people looking to remove any mayor they don't like, or any police chief they don't like, or, more commonly, any boss they don't like, or even any neighbor they don't like. Most people in society would be almost a free target. Combine that with the fact that most people would have access to this tech and I could see tit-for-tat killings going on all over the place. I'm really interested in seeing what law enforcement and military thinkers are working on to solve this problem. It really will be fascinating to watch this space, because I could see it getting out of hand on a time scale shorter than we'd at first anticipate.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
  I remember listening to a guy on Business Radio, who was operating in this space. His business model was basically making sure that drones can't be easily disabled, jammed and so on along with the other side of the coin where 'bad guy' ( I so hate that phrase ) drones are contained quickly. That was two years ago. I assume this is part of the reason some drone regulations were implemented.
SubiculumCode 5y ago
YOU may not be, but if I, or my loved ones lived in a high-patrol area known for police brutality, I certainly would be worried.
Retric 5y ago
Drones should be much easier to intercept than rocket / artillery shell attacks which have become significantly less effective. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome
- mdorazio 5y ago
  This is not clear at all. Rockets and artillery shells follow high trajectory, extremely predictable ballistic paths. If your radar is good enough to accurately spot the rocket or shell against the entirely blank backdrop of sky, you can shoot it down. Drones, on the other hand, can fly low to the ground and move in unpredictable ways if needed so that 1) radar can't find them easily, and 2) even if it does, your counter weaponry will probably have trouble doing much. A lot of anti-drone weapons today are based on the idea of disrupting drone-to-controller comms to force them to return or land, but if you setup your drone on a one-way trip with zero need to communicate to a controller, your countering options get limited pretty quickly.
  - Retric 5y ago
    Off the shelf drones are so slow they don’t need to be predicted. Signal jamming is the default because it’s safe, cheap, and effective. However at Phalanx CIWS is more than happy to shoot down a drone, but using one for anti drone work presents some inherent risks as it’s quite possibly going to target sea birds by mistake. Anyway, if you’re thinking about a custom built drone which follows pre programmed flight paths to a preset target, congratulations that’s a cruse missile. Various versions have traded off speed to follow the terrain more closely, but speed is considered more useful than extremely low speeds.
  - c_o_n_v_e_x 5y ago
    Jamming GNSS is the next obvious choice. Low noise gyros and accelerometers needed for inertial guidance/dead reckoning over long distances are expensive. Now something that could fly via visual guidance like a Skydio is interesting... Counter with giant spotlights or laser dazzlers to blind the onboard cameras?
csilverman 5y ago
Hamas is already doing this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/05/14/hamas-throws-kamikaze-drones-into-attacks-on-israel-claims-hit-on-chemical-plant/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/05/14/hamas-... I'm only surprised we're not seeing more of this from domestic terrorist groups. Anyone with minimal technical skill could probably order a hobbyist drone, attach something nasty, and figure out how to remotely detonate it with a phone. Also, I suspect that arguing cops shouldn't be able to use armed robots for extreme situations like hostage standoffs—when they already use robots for bomb disposal and reconnaissance, to say nothing of long-standing measures like deploying snipers on rooftops—is going to be a tough case to make. Might have more success trying to limit the situations where they can use armed robots—say, a hostage situation or ongoing terror attack, rather than shadowing a protest.
- magicsmoke 5y ago
  Using drones wasn't going to dramatically increase the damage someone like the Boston Marathon bomber did or decrease his chances of getting caught. Would be domestic terrorists are deterred by the fact that they are domestic and will eventually be arrested given the dragnet of internet and CCTV surveillance we all live under, not because they can't somehow fly a bomb into a stadium instead of leaving a pressure cooker backpack. Drone availability is way down on the list of things a normal person would consider before deciding to pick up domestic terrorism. Top of that list is probably whether they can win a shootout with the police force when a dozen swat vans inevitably show up at their address.
- rootsudo 5y ago
  "I'm only surprised we're not seeing more of this from domestic terrorist groups. Anyone with minimal technical skill could probably order a hobbyist drone, attach something nasty, and figure out how to remotely detonate it with a phone." Me too, it is not high tech at all, basic in doing a remote circuit and they now even have "farming" drones which you can replace the main chemical with whatever you'd want... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn7Q4oIrP3I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn7Q4oIrP3I
- hjek 5y ago
  > Hamas is already doing this And the IDF too: https://www.thedailybeast.com/israel-is-sending-robots-with-machine-guns-to-the-gaza-border https://www.thedailybeast.com/israel-is-sending-robots-with-...
TroisM 5y ago
I like this example, the Slaughterbots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw

virtuabhi 5y ago

Terrorist organizations have started drone attacks - https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-airport-attack-from-nia-taking-over-the-case-to-israeli-anti-drone-systems-10-points-11624945922576.html https://www.livemint.com/news/india/jammu-airport-attack-fro...

throwawayswede 5y ago

Israel uses "AI" controlled drones with no human contact to terrorize people in Gaza. Palestinians absolutely already manufacturer and deploy simple drones against Israeli military targets. Israeli terrorist army force (in a euphemistic doublespeak manner called defense force) does way more damage against civilians while Palestinians resist against an occupier.

pmoriarty 5y ago

"I'm less worried about the police doing this than I am rogue nation, groups, and individuals." Governments have killed exponentially more of their own people throughout history in genocides, pogroms, civil wars, starvations, and so on than have ever been killed by rogue nations, non-government groups or individuals.

bilbo0s 5y ago

I always thought targeted assassination will be the primary use of autonomous weapons. And since I don't really see any obvious means of authoritative attribution, I'm not really sure how you would stop it? I think it will be ultra popular. Not only with cartels looking to rid themselves of annoyances in Mexico. Also with people looking to remove any mayor they don't like, or any police chief they don't like, or, more commonly, any boss they don't like, or even any neighbor they don't like. Most people in society would be almost a free target. Combine that with the fact that most people would have access to this tech and I could see tit-for-tat killings going on all over the place. I'm really interested in seeing what law enforcement and military thinkers are working on to solve this problem. It really will be fascinating to watch this space, because I could see it getting out of hand on a time scale shorter than we'd at first anticipate.

A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
I remember listening to a guy on Business Radio, who was operating in this space. His business model was basically making sure that drones can't be easily disabled, jammed and so on along with the other side of the coin where 'bad guy' ( I so hate that phrase ) drones are contained quickly. That was two years ago. I assume this is part of the reason some drone regulations were implemented.

SubiculumCode 5y ago

YOU may not be, but if I, or my loved ones lived in a high-patrol area known for police brutality, I certainly would be worried.

Retric 5y ago

Drones should be much easier to intercept than rocket / artillery shell attacks which have become significantly less effective. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

mdorazio 5y ago
This is not clear at all. Rockets and artillery shells follow high trajectory, extremely predictable ballistic paths. If your radar is good enough to accurately spot the rocket or shell against the entirely blank backdrop of sky, you can shoot it down. Drones, on the other hand, can fly low to the ground and move in unpredictable ways if needed so that 1) radar can't find them easily, and 2) even if it does, your counter weaponry will probably have trouble doing much. A lot of anti-drone weapons today are based on the idea of disrupting drone-to-controller comms to force them to return or land, but if you setup your drone on a one-way trip with zero need to communicate to a controller, your countering options get limited pretty quickly.
- Retric 5y ago
  Off the shelf drones are so slow they don’t need to be predicted. Signal jamming is the default because it’s safe, cheap, and effective. However at Phalanx CIWS is more than happy to shoot down a drone, but using one for anti drone work presents some inherent risks as it’s quite possibly going to target sea birds by mistake. Anyway, if you’re thinking about a custom built drone which follows pre programmed flight paths to a preset target, congratulations that’s a cruse missile. Various versions have traded off speed to follow the terrain more closely, but speed is considered more useful than extremely low speeds.
- c_o_n_v_e_x 5y ago
  Jamming GNSS is the next obvious choice. Low noise gyros and accelerometers needed for inertial guidance/dead reckoning over long distances are expensive. Now something that could fly via visual guidance like a Skydio is interesting... Counter with giant spotlights or laser dazzlers to blind the onboard cameras?

csilverman 5y ago

Hamas is already doing this: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/05/14/hamas-throws-kamikaze-drones-into-attacks-on-israel-claims-hit-on-chemical-plant/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidhambling/2021/05/14/hamas-... I'm only surprised we're not seeing more of this from domestic terrorist groups. Anyone with minimal technical skill could probably order a hobbyist drone, attach something nasty, and figure out how to remotely detonate it with a phone. Also, I suspect that arguing cops shouldn't be able to use armed robots for extreme situations like hostage standoffs—when they already use robots for bomb disposal and reconnaissance, to say nothing of long-standing measures like deploying snipers on rooftops—is going to be a tough case to make. Might have more success trying to limit the situations where they can use armed robots—say, a hostage situation or ongoing terror attack, rather than shadowing a protest.

magicsmoke 5y ago
Using drones wasn't going to dramatically increase the damage someone like the Boston Marathon bomber did or decrease his chances of getting caught. Would be domestic terrorists are deterred by the fact that they are domestic and will eventually be arrested given the dragnet of internet and CCTV surveillance we all live under, not because they can't somehow fly a bomb into a stadium instead of leaving a pressure cooker backpack. Drone availability is way down on the list of things a normal person would consider before deciding to pick up domestic terrorism. Top of that list is probably whether they can win a shootout with the police force when a dozen swat vans inevitably show up at their address.
rootsudo 5y ago
"I'm only surprised we're not seeing more of this from domestic terrorist groups. Anyone with minimal technical skill could probably order a hobbyist drone, attach something nasty, and figure out how to remotely detonate it with a phone." Me too, it is not high tech at all, basic in doing a remote circuit and they now even have "farming" drones which you can replace the main chemical with whatever you'd want... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn7Q4oIrP3I https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dn7Q4oIrP3I
hjek 5y ago
> Hamas is already doing this And the IDF too: https://www.thedailybeast.com/israel-is-sending-robots-with-machine-guns-to-the-gaza-border https://www.thedailybeast.com/israel-is-sending-robots-with-...

TroisM 5y ago

I like this example, the Slaughterbots: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HipTO_7mUOw