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IMO there is a lot of misattribution happening where any anomalous weather event is immediately blamed on climate change when it could just be a rare event. Aft
by throwawaysea 5y ago
IMO there is a lot of misattribution happening where any anomalous weather event is immediately blamed on climate change when it could just be a rare event. After all we had record breaking events before climate change. I saw this flawed attribution from virtually every newspaper headline claiming the recent Pacific Northwest heat wave was caused by climate change despite there being no evidence to establish such strong causality and no continuous pattern of such events (Seattle last had triple digit temperatures in 2009). The same attribution issue also happens with wildfires even though the main reasons wildfires are worse in modern times, at least in the western US, is due to how forests have been logged, regrown, regulated, and managed (see https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_hessburg_why_wildfires_have_gotten_worse_and_what_we_can_do_about_it/up-next https://www.ted.com/talks/paul_hessburg_why_wildfires_have_g...).
Leaving that aside, warming (as a planet wide average) is happening and will have big impacts. It won’t be a threat to the species however - that is it won’t be an existential threat. So whether we get ahead of it is a somewhat subjective question. If we experience millions of deaths but most of humanity is fine, will we consider ourselves to be ahead of it? We probably don’t need to go to extremes to mitigate the worst of future climate change impacts. There is a lot of focus on personal transportation for example, resulting in bans on petrol cars that don’t make sense to me. If we instead more widely adopt nuclear power, and also hold populations within some limits, we can probably avoid a lot of the impact while continuing to retain a modern standard of living.
- amanaplanacanal 5y agoClimate change increases the frequency of these rare events, but you can't attribute any individual event specifically to climate change. I'm not sure we have the proper language to talk about causation in these kinds of scenarios.
- 7952 5y agoIn a complex system like the atmosphere anything and everything can have an effect. But some categories of input can have a greater magnitude of effect than others. In one year volcanism may have a massive effect and then have little effect for decades. In recent years humans have had a high magnitude of effect. Based on that you could attribute some responsibility to humans for any and all weather events like this.