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I am a halfer. 1/2 1/2 / \ | Mon Tue Mon 1/2 1/2 1 T T H I think I have identified the thirder problem. They are assuming that it

by Raphael 18y ago

I am a halfer. 1/2 1/2 / \ | Mon Tue Mon 1/2 1/2 1 T T H I think I have identified the thirder problem. They are assuming that it's Monday: Mon Tue 3/4 1/4 / \ | 2/3 1/3 T | | H T

GavinB 18y ago
Your first diagram makes it look like something is split between Monday and Tuesday, when it's not split at all. You get both of those "tails" interviews, in sequence. So you get asked two times for the answer when it is tails, and only once when it is heads. Try doing the experiment several times and see how well you do picking heads every time you "wake up." There's no need to have memory alteration if you set your strategy beforehand. You'll only be right 1/3 of the time if you bet on heads.
- Raphael 18y ago
  There is a split. Given tails, it is either Monday or Tuesday.
  - GavinB 18y ago
    I think you may be misreading the question. Given tails, you are asked both Monday AND Tuesday. That's why it gets tricky--you have to double down if it's tails.
    - deleted 18y ago
      [deleted]