Hmmm, looking around for a bit I assume you are talking about this study here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowship

Hmmm, looking around for a bit I assume you are talking about this study here https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... which notes the 2.2 million as a worst case scenario where nothing is done to stop the pandemic, which is obviously not what happened. Although I would agree that the government should be taking into account his previous forecasting when determining the accuracy and significance of his model.