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Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am curr

by vldmrs 5y ago

Could anyone point me to studies/research on how different parts of the world will be affected by climate change ? I would like to know how the place I am currently living at will be different now vs 10-30 years from today.

js8 5y ago
The IPCC report is a good start: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ The AR6 version is supposed to come out next year.
- cagenut 5y ago
  AR5 is great, SR15 is more recent: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ I particularly find skipping to the graphics page and looking for maps useful for answering peoples geography related questions. One thing to keep in mind is that report was overall meant to illustrate the difference between a 1.5 and a 2C outcome, but at this point 1.5C is toast and 2C would be an optimistic outcome so you can just skip to the 2C graphs for your estimating purposes.
  - miltondts 5y ago
    Given CO2 emitted today doesn't have an immediate impact, 2C appears impossible at this point: https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-2649767807.html https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-26... This is just for the CO2 already in the atmosphere. Add to that at least 10 more years of emissions that continue to grow at an exponential rate. Then another 20 years of decreasing CO2 emissions, and it might be better to look at: https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-l....
canoebuilder 5y ago
The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world. Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now. What’s the actual sea level rise in the intervening period been? A cm or 2, if that?
- ithkuil 5y ago
  > Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now. Would our could? If a volcano could erupt then perhaps the sea also could rise? It's sad that it's so hard to talk about which of these are more likely without bringing up one's whole political identity into the discussion.
  - premium-lizard 5y ago
    > Would our could? I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. > the sea also could rise It wouldn't be surprising, since they've been rising for 20,000 years. The strange thing about sea rise is that the tens of meters of rise from before the industrial revolution were good and natural, whereas the centimeters since are evil, and definitely due to CO2 emissions.
    - Juliate 5y ago
      > I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. Well, seasoned reasonable discourse from the scientific community started in the 70s (as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies). So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes.
      - premium-lizard 5y ago
        > as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system. > So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes. Actually, the UN said in 1989 that whole nations might be wiped off the map if we didn't reverse global warming by 2000, so I might expect a 2000-dated discourse to have some humility, considering that the doom prophecy totally failed to materialize. But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare?
        Juliate 5y ago
Flip-per 5y ago
This is a visualization tool of an IPCC study where you can compare various climate scenarios. All the data and publications are available there too: https://hotspots-explorer.org/ https://hotspots-explorer.org/ By the way, it's quite hard to nail down what exactly a certain region will look like in 30 years. That depends a whole lot on the assumptions that you take. The models used for such work (IPCC etc) are rather suitable to compare actions, e.g. "If we don't take measure X and Y now, then the average temperature in this region will be 0.7° higher 30 years from now, compared to taking that measure."

by vldmrs 5y ago

js8 5y ago

The IPCC report is a good start: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/ The AR6 version is supposed to come out next year.

cagenut 5y ago
AR5 is great, SR15 is more recent: https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/graphics/ I particularly find skipping to the graphics page and looking for maps useful for answering peoples geography related questions. One thing to keep in mind is that report was overall meant to illustrate the difference between a 1.5 and a 2C outcome, but at this point 1.5C is toast and 2C would be an optimistic outcome so you can just skip to the 2C graphs for your estimating purposes.
- miltondts 5y ago
  Given CO2 emitted today doesn't have an immediate impact, 2C appears impossible at this point: https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-2649767807.html https://www.ecowatch.com/greenhouse-gases-paris-agreement-26... This is just for the CO2 already in the atmosphere. Add to that at least 10 more years of emissions that continue to grow at an exponential rate. Then another 20 years of decreasing CO2 emissions, and it might be better to look at: https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-like-4degc-warmer https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/what-the-world-will-look-l....

canoebuilder 5y ago

The relentless doom saying gives the impression that there are some studies or research or science out there that can accurately make predictions of the sort you are interested in, but as far as I know that’s not the case. I’m not aware of any system with a track record of predicting climates that far out. A volcano could erupt tomorrow and create much cooler climates around the world. Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now. What’s the actual sea level rise in the intervening period been? A cm or 2, if that?

ithkuil 5y ago
> Al Gore’s movie from the early 2000s said Florida would be underwater by now. Would our could? If a volcano could erupt then perhaps the sea also could rise? It's sad that it's so hard to talk about which of these are more likely without bringing up one's whole political identity into the discussion.
- premium-lizard 5y ago
  > Would our could? I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. > the sea also could rise It wouldn't be surprising, since they've been rising for 20,000 years. The strange thing about sea rise is that the tens of meters of rise from before the industrial revolution were good and natural, whereas the centimeters since are evil, and definitely due to CO2 emissions.
  - Juliate 5y ago
    > I doubt the movie expressed absolute certainty, but it was indisputably meant to be alarming. Well, seasoned reasonable discourse from the scientific community started in the 70s (as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies). So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes.
    - premium-lizard 5y ago
      > as well as knowledge of the issue among oil companies Oil companies don't have any special ability to predict the future state of a complex system. > So, you'd expect a 2000-dated discourse to be slightly more alarming, yes. Actually, the UN said in 1989 that whole nations might be wiped off the map if we didn't reverse global warming by 2000, so I might expect a 2000-dated discourse to have some humility, considering that the doom prophecy totally failed to materialize. But anyway, how did Gore's predictions fare?
      - Juliate 5y ago

Flip-per 5y ago

This is a visualization tool of an IPCC study where you can compare various climate scenarios. All the data and publications are available there too: https://hotspots-explorer.org/ https://hotspots-explorer.org/ By the way, it's quite hard to nail down what exactly a certain region will look like in 30 years. That depends a whole lot on the assumptions that you take. The models used for such work (IPCC etc) are rather suitable to compare actions, e.g. "If we don't take measure X and Y now, then the average temperature in this region will be 0.7° higher 30 years from now, compared to taking that measure."