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This quote doesn't explicitly state that the 10-15 million will die from COVID but its certainly implied. That doesn't sound like it makes any sense at all thou
by spywaregorilla 5y ago
This quote doesn't explicitly state that the 10-15 million will die from COVID but its certainly implied. That doesn't sound like it makes any sense at all though. 20% of the population? Why would Myanmar see 2-3x the global death toll on its own? I don't think there's any data to suggest a 20% death rate even with 0 medical treatment at all (and assuming 100% infection).
Is this just someone getting trigger happy with an exponential model?
- ineedasername 5y agoUntreated other medical issues due to health system overload? Maybe combined with civil unrest and partial societal collapse? That's about the only way the #s make sense and even than it's about an order of magnitude larger than seems plausible. It's really a number that needs explaining.
- spywaregorilla 5y agoSeems unlikely still. E.g. the american civil war cost 2% of the population. What prop dies if all medical facilities shut down entirely? Probably no more than 5%? 20% is just utterly enormous.
- einarfd 5y ago20% is definitely a lot. But if you look at the estimates of the death rate in Cambodia after the Khmer Rouge, they range from a bit over one million to almost three and a half in a population of roughly eight. So it does seem doable.
- gus_massa 5y agoAccording to Wikipedia they killed only(!!!!!!!) like 1.5 to 2 million people (around 25%). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmer_Rouge#Number_of_deaths https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khmer_Rouge#Number_of_deaths Also, Khmer Rouge had like 4 years to kill the people, and big waves of covid-19 last approximately one or two months. For example famine and unrelated illness that can't be treated because the hospitals are not working usually take more time to kill people.