4 ms·

AI that finds disease targets and predicts a drug’s chances of FDA approval

10 points by intellaughs 5y ago

aurizon 5y ago
The AI discovered an incidental proxy of FDA success - measuring funds level of the offshore banks of the comittee that approves a drug.
- dilippkumar 5y ago
  Can you please link to a source?
  - aurizon 5y ago
    The AI knows. I was drawing a parallel to the premature approval of a potential alzheimer's drug, which was approved against the vote of that drug's advisory board. https://www.wsj.com/articles/third-member-of-fda-advisory-panel-resigns-over-approval-of-alzheimer-drug-11623370557 https://www.wsj.com/articles/third-member-of-fda-advisory-pa... https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-26/is-the-fda-s-drug-approval-process-broken https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-26/is-the...
throwaway284534 5y ago
This is such a strange article. Immediately criticizing the FDA’s approval process as invalid and time wasting without citing exactly why. I’m sure there are limits to the existing process, so what are they, and what is it doing right? They also mentioned several times that an AI has found a means to correlate gene expressions with drug interactions…and that’s it. Just pasting the abstract isn’t the neutral reporting they think it is. What would be really interesting is if doctors had genetic profiles of their patients and could analyze side effect probabilities specific to you, rather than a group in the case study when the drug was approved. Even having this anonymous information available to the drug research could help simulate potential avenues.
roamerz 5y ago
My first take on the headline was that AI found a disease that targets and predicts a drug's chances at FDA approval. That was like !!WOW!! until I reread the title correctly.
mattkrause 5y ago
It would be incredible--in the literal sense of the word--if this actually works out-of-sample. The biology itself is mind-bendingly hard. On top of that, FDA approval depends on all sorts of factors beyond "efficacy": severity of the disease vs severity of adverse effects, other options, and0--lately--a decent amount of capriciousness.
- rich_sasha 5y ago
  Yeah, it’s a common pet peeve of mine: it’s no challenge at all to estimate, it’s probably hard to make a good estimate.
grouphugs 5y ago
the fda is a corporatist puppet, we've been saying this for a long time. this is gonna end in more cancer patients with protestants blaming it on alcohol
mattkrause 5y ago
Here's the actual article (OA/CC-BY), which is a bit less...expansive. It predicted A FEW FDA-approved outcomes; it does not take arbitrary predictions of any disease from target to approval. Sahoo, D., Swanson, L., Sayed, I.M. et al. Artificial intelligence guided discovery of a barrier-protective therapy in inflammatory bowel disease. Nat Commun 12, 4246 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24470-5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24470-5 or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24470-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24470-5

10 points by intellaughs 5y ago

The AI discovered an incidental proxy of FDA success - measuring funds level of the offshore banks of the comittee that approves a drug.

dilippkumar 5y ago
Can you please link to a source?
- aurizon 5y ago
  The AI knows. I was drawing a parallel to the premature approval of a potential alzheimer's drug, which was approved against the vote of that drug's advisory board. https://www.wsj.com/articles/third-member-of-fda-advisory-panel-resigns-over-approval-of-alzheimer-drug-11623370557 https://www.wsj.com/articles/third-member-of-fda-advisory-pa... https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-26/is-the-fda-s-drug-approval-process-broken https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-06-26/is-the...

throwaway284534 5y ago

This is such a strange article. Immediately criticizing the FDA’s approval process as invalid and time wasting without citing exactly why. I’m sure there are limits to the existing process, so what are they, and what is it doing right? They also mentioned several times that an AI has found a means to correlate gene expressions with drug interactions…and that’s it. Just pasting the abstract isn’t the neutral reporting they think it is. What would be really interesting is if doctors had genetic profiles of their patients and could analyze side effect probabilities specific to you, rather than a group in the case study when the drug was approved. Even having this anonymous information available to the drug research could help simulate potential avenues.

roamerz 5y ago

My first take on the headline was that AI found a disease that targets and predicts a drug's chances at FDA approval. That was like !!WOW!! until I reread the title correctly.

mattkrause 5y ago

It would be incredible--in the literal sense of the word--if this actually works out-of-sample. The biology itself is mind-bendingly hard. On top of that, FDA approval depends on all sorts of factors beyond "efficacy": severity of the disease vs severity of adverse effects, other options, and0--lately--a decent amount of capriciousness.

rich_sasha 5y ago
Yeah, it’s a common pet peeve of mine: it’s no challenge at all to estimate, it’s probably hard to make a good estimate.

grouphugs 5y ago

the fda is a corporatist puppet, we've been saying this for a long time. this is gonna end in more cancer patients with protestants blaming it on alcohol

mattkrause 5y ago

Here's the actual article (OA/CC-BY), which is a bit less...expansive. It predicted A FEW FDA-approved outcomes; it does not take arbitrary predictions of any disease from target to approval. Sahoo, D., Swanson, L., Sayed, I.M. et al. Artificial intelligence guided discovery of a barrier-protective therapy in inflammatory bowel disease. Nat Commun 12, 4246 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24470-5 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24470-5 or https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24470-5 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-24470-5