3 ms·
There's a lot of people dismmising this study. But I don't think people realise how much history and scholarship is going into this. I am not a cancer biologist
by ImaCake 5y ago
There's a lot of people dismmising this study. But I don't think people realise how much history and scholarship is going into this. I am not a cancer biologist, so neither do I. But I can provide a little bit of insight so that people at least know what they are trying to reject.
The data for this study comes from the GLOBOCAN database, which seems to be an aggregator of cancer data [0]. This database must be massive in it's scale. The abstract states an estimated 750,000 cases attributable to alcohol consumption. That's a lot of people. But the actual data they are using contains several million participants at a minimum! You can take a look at some of the numbers here [1]. "19.3 million cases and 10 million cancer deaths in 2020" are huge numbers, even if they are staying with just 2020 registered cancer cases. How do they get these numbers? It looks like they have aggregated together cancer registries from multiple countries. Some of these will be super accurate (e.g Nordic countries, New Zealand etc) and some more sparse and less complete.
The estimates of cancer risk come from about the most authoritative scholary source possible today: "World Cancer Research Fund International’s Continuous Update Project" which appears to be a kind of set of mega systematic reviews on the links between diet/nutrition/exerice on cancer risk. This project has massive amounts of scholarship, data, and experience behind it [2].
You may think the paper is still crap. But maybe think for a moment before rejecting it out of hand. This isn't a single biased study of 30 white college students at Harvard. This is a model based on data from whole nation's cancer registries combined with parameters estimated from the best, hopefully least biased, human trial studies we can manage with the resources available to us.
0. https://www.uicc.org/who-we-are/about-us https://www.uicc.org/who-we-are/about-us
1. https://www.uicc.org/news/globocan-2020-new-global-cancer-data https://www.uicc.org/news/globocan-2020-new-global-cancer-da...
2. https://www.wcrf.org/dietandcancer/a-summary-of-the-third-expert-report/ https://www.wcrf.org/dietandcancer/a-summary-of-the-third-ex...