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It’s interesting that this is the fourth "once in a century" flood in Germany since 2000. That’s where climate change comes in: In the past, we had one "once i

It’s interesting that this is the fourth "once in a century" flood in Germany since 2000. That’s where climate change comes in: In the past, we had one "once in a century" flood per century.

ceilingcorner 5y ago
Does "once in a century" have any scientific meaning? Because if you look at the link, far more people died in the past from flooding. 10,000 per flood vs. 100 today. Whether that is because the floods were larger or because we had less robust engineering is unknown.
- mikeg8 5y ago
  Another explanation for lower casualties is modern communications. How did people in the past know to evacuate prior to modern meteorology and real-time communications? Had there been less warning of this event, the #s dead may well have been in the thousands.
  - lhorie 5y ago
    Indeed. One commenter below mentioned family getting evacuated in anticipation. Also worth noting this event is still ongoing, so the "at least 120" number is likely lowballing.
- abc_lisper 5y ago
  I think it does. Insurance companies use it to calculate the monthly payments. I am sure they are well quantized.
- Someone 5y ago
  Unfair comparison. The large ones of those (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe) all were flooding of coastal areas by sea water. This is flooding by rainwater in mountainous regions.
rad_gruchalski 5y ago
There was also “once in the century” in Poland, in 1997…
- rasz 5y ago
  no noo, it was once in a millenium flood! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_European_flood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_European_flood ... Poland was mostly hit because of brilliant idea to build in the flood plains. Image in that wiki article from Kozanow. Here in 2010 again https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozan%C3%B3w#/media/Plik:Powodz_Kozanow_Wroclaw_Poland_22_may_2010.jpg https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozan%C3%B3w#/media/Plik:Powod... "This area was treated - also due to the fact that it is located in a depression - as a floodplain in the event of catastrophic floods that sometimes occur here, caused by the flooded waters of the Odra or Ślęza, flowing not far west of Kozanów. The decision to build up Kozanów with tall apartment blocks [14] made of prefabricated slabs turned out to be fateful. After twenty years, the catastrophic flood of the millennium of 1997 flooded Kozanów and its vicinity [15]. The estate was the most disadvantaged area of the city, the water was reaching the first floor in some places. During the 2010 flood on May 22, Kozanów was partially flooded again."

It’s interesting that this is the fourth "once in a century" flood in Germany since 2000. That’s where climate change comes in: In the past, we had one "once in a century" flood per century.

ceilingcorner 5y ago

Does "once in a century" have any scientific meaning? Because if you look at the link, far more people died in the past from flooding. 10,000 per flood vs. 100 today. Whether that is because the floods were larger or because we had less robust engineering is unknown.

mikeg8 5y ago
Another explanation for lower casualties is modern communications. How did people in the past know to evacuate prior to modern meteorology and real-time communications? Had there been less warning of this event, the #s dead may well have been in the thousands.
- lhorie 5y ago
  Indeed. One commenter below mentioned family getting evacuated in anticipation. Also worth noting this event is still ongoing, so the "at least 120" number is likely lowballing.
abc_lisper 5y ago
I think it does. Insurance companies use it to calculate the monthly payments. I am sure they are well quantized.
Someone 5y ago
Unfair comparison. The large ones of those (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods_in_Europe) all were flooding of coastal areas by sea water. This is flooding by rainwater in mountainous regions.

rad_gruchalski 5y ago

There was also “once in the century” in Poland, in 1997…

rasz 5y ago
no noo, it was once in a millenium flood! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_European_flood https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Central_European_flood ... Poland was mostly hit because of brilliant idea to build in the flood plains. Image in that wiki article from Kozanow. Here in 2010 again https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozan%C3%B3w#/media/Plik:Powodz_Kozanow_Wroclaw_Poland_22_may_2010.jpg https://pl.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozan%C3%B3w#/media/Plik:Powod... "This area was treated - also due to the fact that it is located in a depression - as a floodplain in the event of catastrophic floods that sometimes occur here, caused by the flooded waters of the Odra or Ślęza, flowing not far west of Kozanów. The decision to build up Kozanów with tall apartment blocks [14] made of prefabricated slabs turned out to be fateful. After twenty years, the catastrophic flood of the millennium of 1997 flooded Kozanów and its vicinity [15]. The estate was the most disadvantaged area of the city, the water was reaching the first floor in some places. During the 2010 flood on May 22, Kozanów was partially flooded again."