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Over enough time and space, probabilities other than 0 and 1 become rare; i.e., things that are not impossible become inevitable. Bracewell-von Neumann self-re
by pklausler 5y ago
Over enough time and space, probabilities other than 0 and 1 become rare; i.e., things that are not impossible become inevitable.
Bracewell-von Neumann self-replicating interstellar probes are not impossible. I think we're not too far away from being able to create and launch them ourselves, if we survive.
Has any technical civilization in galactic history launched a BvN probe? It only takes one launch of a BvN probe to saturate the galaxy for all time afterwards, esp. if they can mutate and compete. But we don't see any such probe activity, and I think that we would, if they were busily mining asteroids and frantically manufacturing copies of themselves. So I think we can tentatively assume that nobody has launched one yet in our galaxy; and explaining that possibility leads to some unsettling consequences.
- captainmuon 5y agoI'm not convinced von Neuman probes are actually feasible. For one, you'd need general artificial intelligence because the task of setting up a production line on a different planet is incredibly complicated. Then you'd need to move a lot of mass across star systems. Tiny replicators are not going to survive the harsh conditions on other planets, and then find and extract all the resources you need to build bigger machines. I'm not sure what the minimum feasible probe would be, but I guess a lot bigger than everything we can send into space now. Finally, I'm not sure interstellar flight is realistically possible. Especially if you are not sending solar sails or rice corn sized probes, but a payload the size of an oil rig or bigger.
- pklausler 5y agoI don't think that planets are good targets; you'd want to use asteroids for raw materials and stay in microgravity, no? But yes, if BvN probes are impossible at any level of technology, that would explain their apparent absence.