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We don't need to go extinct. Our global economy is very fragile, relatively speaking and it's not at all clear we could sustain the economy necessary to perform

by hnbad 5y ago

We don't need to go extinct. Our global economy is very fragile, relatively speaking and it's not at all clear we could sustain the economy necessary to perform space exploration if bad things happen. To avoid an extended argument about all the ways in which climate change will screw things up, let's focus on nuclear war: a nuclear war between, say, India and China would not only wipe out huge swaths of the human population but also ruin the global economy because industries in Europe and the US depend on these countries. And that's without going into the ecological effects of a nuclear war. The economy relies on layers and layers of extremely convoluted supply chains and can't sustain a loss of even 1% of the human population, let alone 10% or more. The US has only seen a death of around 0.2% of its population due to COVID and is already facing labor shortages in retail. The blockade of the Suez canal was a big concern but imagine the Suez canal is simply gone.

pharke 5y ago
Those convoluted supply chains are a recent phenomena. Some international trade is necessary but large countries like the United States are capable of producing almost everything they require domestically. Trade is only preferable if you can import something for less money than you can manufacture it locally.
joshuahedlund 5y ago
> The economy relies on layers and layers of extremely convoluted supply chains and can't sustain a loss of even 1% of the human population I think you are underestimating the ability of humanity to adjust and innovate, especially over time. I mean we literally essentially lose 1% of the human population to old age every year.
heavenlyblue 5y ago
> The US has only seen a death of around 0.2% of its population due to COVID and is already facing labor shortages in retail. Pretty certain these two metrics are absolutely unrelated, given the fact that people who would have died were probably quite old in the first place.

by hnbad 5y ago

pharke 5y ago

Those convoluted supply chains are a recent phenomena. Some international trade is necessary but large countries like the United States are capable of producing almost everything they require domestically. Trade is only preferable if you can import something for less money than you can manufacture it locally.

joshuahedlund 5y ago

> The economy relies on layers and layers of extremely convoluted supply chains and can't sustain a loss of even 1% of the human population I think you are underestimating the ability of humanity to adjust and innovate, especially over time. I mean we literally essentially lose 1% of the human population to old age every year.

heavenlyblue 5y ago

> The US has only seen a death of around 0.2% of its population due to COVID and is already facing labor shortages in retail. Pretty certain these two metrics are absolutely unrelated, given the fact that people who would have died were probably quite old in the first place.