6 ms·

Carl Sagan thought this, though he lived during the cold war so it's not surprising he did.

by Moodles 5y ago

hnbad 5y ago
Considering where climate change is heading, it's surprising anyone doesn't think this.
- Taylor_OD 5y ago
  I agree in our case but this wouldnt be universal. Life may thrive in very hot planets if their evolutionary track was different.
- scarmig 5y ago
  Climate change is very real and worth addressing, but it's extremely unlikely to wipe out human civilization. It's just going to be costly and kill millions, not billions.
  - ses1984 5y ago
    Climate change by itself could be extremely unlikely to wipe out human civilization but it could be the catalyst that sets other events in motion like nuclear war.
  - darthrupert 5y ago
    Climate change doesn't have to directly kill us all. It could be the trigger to something else that does.
  - miltondts 5y ago
    Extremely unlikely to wipe out all humans. I agree. Current civilization, I'm not so sure. For the reasoning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis
  - hnbad 5y ago
    Can you clarify what you mean by "millions"? The Syrian civil war is estimated to have killed just short of half a million people. The pandemic easily has a global death toll of roughly 4 million people so far. The Chalisa famine of 1783/1784 is estimated to have killed 11 million people. The Spanish flu killed at least 17 million people, though some of the more dramatizing estimates place it closer to 100 million. According to some researchers, climate change is already killing 100,000 a year[1]. So I assume you're not thinking of just seven or eight digits unless you're exceedingly optimistic. Climate change will make parts of the world inhabitable that are currently populated by humans. It will also result in crop failures, which will cause famines. In some cases formerly native crops will no longer be supported by the changing local climate or farmland may become completely unusable. Potable water will become harder to source. Water contamination is a source of many deadly diseases. Even if we assume most of the deaths will be concentrated in places like Africa or the Indian subcontinent, the global economy relies on these places for resources and cheap labor. People in ongoing climate catastrophes also don't tend to stay put and die in an orderly fashion, they become refugees or riot against their governments. Things can get politically messy even in the nations next door as humans tend to be uncomfortable with political chaos and mass deaths. But unlike the Spanish flu, or the potato famine, or COVID, climate change is not a temporary blip that happens and then goes away. If all the carriers of the plague have died, nobody dies from the plague unless they get infected handling the dead. Famines can starve millions to death but once there's another harvest the survivors have food again. Climate change isn't like that. If climate change creates a drought, that's not just a drought, that's now dry season and it will be dry season every year from now. There are currently 7.8 billion humans. There's absolutely no reason to believe climate change can't kill billions, especially once it's managed to kill the first hundreds of millions. Keep in mind that it's not about "addressing" climate change. It's not a moldy bathroom tile that you need to clean up or replace before the mold spreads everywhere. It's a fire our entire way of life is fueling every single day. We know what needs to be done to slow it down to survivable levels (or at least levels that are lethal for less than 1% of us) but we can't just pass legislation or appeal to personal responsibility to do that because it involves changes that would be economical suicide for anyone doing it alone. The world economy is playing a game of chicken with each other and nobody is bluffing. [1]: https://grist.org/climate/how-many-people-has-climate-change-killed-already/ https://grist.org/climate/how-many-people-has-climate-change...
  - Pokepokalypse 5y ago
    I wouldn't say it's extremely unlikely. Maybe not the primary effects won't kill us. But when nations start to struggle with the primary effects, the resource shortages are going to cause conflict - which will almost certainly lead to wars, with these weapons, which will kill billions.

Carl Sagan thought this, though he lived during the cold war so it's not surprising he did.

hnbad 5y ago

Considering where climate change is heading, it's surprising anyone doesn't think this.

Taylor_OD 5y ago
I agree in our case but this wouldnt be universal. Life may thrive in very hot planets if their evolutionary track was different.
scarmig 5y ago
Climate change is very real and worth addressing, but it's extremely unlikely to wipe out human civilization. It's just going to be costly and kill millions, not billions.
- ses1984 5y ago
  Climate change by itself could be extremely unlikely to wipe out human civilization but it could be the catalyst that sets other events in motion like nuclear war.
- darthrupert 5y ago
  Climate change doesn't have to directly kill us all. It could be the trigger to something else that does.
- miltondts 5y ago
  Extremely unlikely to wipe out all humans. I agree. Current civilization, I'm not so sure. For the reasoning: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IESYMFtLIis
- hnbad 5y ago
  Can you clarify what you mean by "millions"? The Syrian civil war is estimated to have killed just short of half a million people. The pandemic easily has a global death toll of roughly 4 million people so far. The Chalisa famine of 1783/1784 is estimated to have killed 11 million people. The Spanish flu killed at least 17 million people, though some of the more dramatizing estimates place it closer to 100 million. According to some researchers, climate change is already killing 100,000 a year[1]. So I assume you're not thinking of just seven or eight digits unless you're exceedingly optimistic. Climate change will make parts of the world inhabitable that are currently populated by humans. It will also result in crop failures, which will cause famines. In some cases formerly native crops will no longer be supported by the changing local climate or farmland may become completely unusable. Potable water will become harder to source. Water contamination is a source of many deadly diseases. Even if we assume most of the deaths will be concentrated in places like Africa or the Indian subcontinent, the global economy relies on these places for resources and cheap labor. People in ongoing climate catastrophes also don't tend to stay put and die in an orderly fashion, they become refugees or riot against their governments. Things can get politically messy even in the nations next door as humans tend to be uncomfortable with political chaos and mass deaths. But unlike the Spanish flu, or the potato famine, or COVID, climate change is not a temporary blip that happens and then goes away. If all the carriers of the plague have died, nobody dies from the plague unless they get infected handling the dead. Famines can starve millions to death but once there's another harvest the survivors have food again. Climate change isn't like that. If climate change creates a drought, that's not just a drought, that's now dry season and it will be dry season every year from now. There are currently 7.8 billion humans. There's absolutely no reason to believe climate change can't kill billions, especially once it's managed to kill the first hundreds of millions. Keep in mind that it's not about "addressing" climate change. It's not a moldy bathroom tile that you need to clean up or replace before the mold spreads everywhere. It's a fire our entire way of life is fueling every single day. We know what needs to be done to slow it down to survivable levels (or at least levels that are lethal for less than 1% of us) but we can't just pass legislation or appeal to personal responsibility to do that because it involves changes that would be economical suicide for anyone doing it alone. The world economy is playing a game of chicken with each other and nobody is bluffing. [1]: https://grist.org/climate/how-many-people-has-climate-change-killed-already/ https://grist.org/climate/how-many-people-has-climate-change...
- Pokepokalypse 5y ago
  I wouldn't say it's extremely unlikely. Maybe not the primary effects won't kill us. But when nations start to struggle with the primary effects, the resource shortages are going to cause conflict - which will almost certainly lead to wars, with these weapons, which will kill billions.