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> The bond market is not predicting high inflation. I believe experts would say the 1970s are not relevant. I think it is at least partially relevant that no o
by voisin 5y ago
> The bond market is not predicting high inflation. I believe experts would say the 1970s are not relevant.
I think it is at least partially relevant that no one working in bonds in 2021 was working in bonds in 1971/1973 period discussed here. It is fun to talk about these past periods but it is very much theoretical for most traders and lessons are hard to remember in your own lifetime let alone from the lifetimes of predecessors.
I encounter this constantly in my profession, which is also heavily reliant on valuation and interest rates. No one in my field today has direct experience of rising interest rate environments since rates have been on a continuous decrease for decades. Even older folks that remember double digits rates still act as if rate can never go up again. They throw caution to the wind. As a result, the market is incredibly susceptible to issues if rates ever do go up. It is mind boggling.