It's probably a horizon thing. Over millenia BAU would have been totally off, 50 or 100 years - not clear to me. Should be historically testable, i.e. mean and

It's probably a horizon thing. Over millenia BAU would have been totally off, 50 or 100 years - not clear to me. Should be historically testable, i.e. mean and median time between larger changes. I suspect that in the last 300 years it accelerated a lot on the tech AND social side.