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A cursory reading of history is enough to show that civilisations collapse regularly. It's not possible to comment on this topic credibly without being aware o

A cursory reading of history is enough to show that civilisations collapse regularly. It's not possible to comment on this topic credibly without being aware of this. As for "flexible social norms" - there was an attempted coup in the US, South Africa is on fire, Brazil is literally on fire, and the UK is opening up to Delta having apparently persuaded itself that 50,000 cases and 500 hospital admissions a day aren't a problem. And we're not even close to being done yet.

sillysaurusx 5y ago
It’s probably better for the thread to avoid any specific modern political collapse theory. For example, I think it’s nutty to say that the attempted coup in the US had any chance of collapsing civilization. But I can’t really say that without sounding insulting, so my “flamewar territory” alarms are starting to go off. And that makes me a sad panda HN user. Suffice to say, yes, civilizations collapse. But that isn’t really the point. Everybody dies, but if you claim each day that one specific person is going to die of X, you’ll be mistaken more times than not. I see the same pattern in most collapse theories.
- dundarious 5y ago
  Your original argument was much more dismissive: > It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. > It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. Now your argument is fundamentally different, and more reasonable. > Suffice to say, yes, civilizations collapse. But that isn’t really the point. Everybody dies, but if you claim each day that one specific person is going to die of X, you’ll be mistaken more times than not. I see the same pattern in most collapse theories. There has been doomsday climate hysteria, but usually not in the scientific community, and in my experience it is most often found in derisive and mocking tabloid headlines, somewhat similar to your original argument.
wussboy 5y ago
Yet here we are. Our current trials and tribulations are nothing compared to the Black Plague, the Hundred Years‘ War, WW2, even the stress of the Cold War and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Yet here we are. Maybe it’s not so fragile after all?
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- notJim 5y ago
  Sure, of course. But suppose you're standing on the precipice of WW2 or the Black Plague and you can clearly see them coming, even if there's some uncertainty about when, and what exactly will happen. Wouldn't you try to prevent them? Historically, people always have, and sometimes they've succeeded. The Cuban Missile Crisis is maybe a good example of this. During that era, there was a widespread feeling that we were dangerously close to nuclear war. Surely that sense of danger was a critical part of the reason cooler heads prevailed in the end.
umanwizard 5y ago
> there was an attempted coup in the US No there wasn’t. A rowdy protest is not “an attempted coup”. All actual institutions behaved according to the law.
- phkahler 5y ago
  >> A rowdy protest is not “an attempted coup”. Oh is this referring to the so called "insurection"? That was like a mild protest compared to other recent ones.
  - swader999 5y ago
    The only ones creating trouble were the fbi informants that were there as agitators. Why haven't these people been charged yet? The rest were let and even motioned in. They took a tour and left peacefully when asked.
    - CyberDildonics 5y ago
      Please tell me this is supposed to be a joke and that you don't seriously think this, given the ocean of literal video evidence out there.
      - swader999 5y ago
        Evidence like this? https://rumble.com/vh52u9-watch-u.s.-capitol-police-gave-protesters-ok-to-enter-capitol.html https://rumble.com/vh52u9-watch-u.s.-capitol-police-gave-pro... https://twitter.com/i/status/1347596278583197698 https://twitter.com/i/status/1347596278583197698
        CyberDildonics 5y ago
        You made one true claim and two ridiculous claims. Then you give evidence for only the one that has been established. Was it FBI informants crushing capitol police against doors and beating them on the ground?

sillysaurusx 5y ago

It’s probably better for the thread to avoid any specific modern political collapse theory. For example, I think it’s nutty to say that the attempted coup in the US had any chance of collapsing civilization. But I can’t really say that without sounding insulting, so my “flamewar territory” alarms are starting to go off. And that makes me a sad panda HN user. Suffice to say, yes, civilizations collapse. But that isn’t really the point. Everybody dies, but if you claim each day that one specific person is going to die of X, you’ll be mistaken more times than not. I see the same pattern in most collapse theories.

dundarious 5y ago
Your original argument was much more dismissive: > It’s an illusion. The world goes ‘round. > It’s the same thing humans have done for a hundred thousand years: sit around a campfire telling ghost stories. Now your argument is fundamentally different, and more reasonable. > Suffice to say, yes, civilizations collapse. But that isn’t really the point. Everybody dies, but if you claim each day that one specific person is going to die of X, you’ll be mistaken more times than not. I see the same pattern in most collapse theories. There has been doomsday climate hysteria, but usually not in the scientific community, and in my experience it is most often found in derisive and mocking tabloid headlines, somewhat similar to your original argument.

wussboy 5y ago

Yet here we are. Our current trials and tribulations are nothing compared to the Black Plague, the Hundred Years‘ War, WW2, even the stress of the Cold War and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Yet here we are. Maybe it’s not so fragile after all?

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
notJim 5y ago
Sure, of course. But suppose you're standing on the precipice of WW2 or the Black Plague and you can clearly see them coming, even if there's some uncertainty about when, and what exactly will happen. Wouldn't you try to prevent them? Historically, people always have, and sometimes they've succeeded. The Cuban Missile Crisis is maybe a good example of this. During that era, there was a widespread feeling that we were dangerously close to nuclear war. Surely that sense of danger was a critical part of the reason cooler heads prevailed in the end.

umanwizard 5y ago

> there was an attempted coup in the US No there wasn’t. A rowdy protest is not “an attempted coup”. All actual institutions behaved according to the law.

phkahler 5y ago
>> A rowdy protest is not “an attempted coup”. Oh is this referring to the so called "insurection"? That was like a mild protest compared to other recent ones.
- swader999 5y ago
  The only ones creating trouble were the fbi informants that were there as agitators. Why haven't these people been charged yet? The rest were let and even motioned in. They took a tour and left peacefully when asked.
  - CyberDildonics 5y ago
    Please tell me this is supposed to be a joke and that you don't seriously think this, given the ocean of literal video evidence out there.
    - swader999 5y ago
      Evidence like this? https://rumble.com/vh52u9-watch-u.s.-capitol-police-gave-protesters-ok-to-enter-capitol.html https://rumble.com/vh52u9-watch-u.s.-capitol-police-gave-pro... https://twitter.com/i/status/1347596278583197698 https://twitter.com/i/status/1347596278583197698
      - CyberDildonics 5y ago
        You made one true claim and two ridiculous claims. Then you give evidence for only the one that has been established. Was it FBI informants crushing capitol police against doors and beating them on the ground?