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Having dabbled with chaotic heavily dynamic systems in college I actually disagree. It may be that our system was in a relatively stable highly linear regime a
by iaw 5y ago
Having dabbled with chaotic heavily dynamic systems in college I actually disagree. It may be that our system was in a relatively stable highly linear regime and we just knocked it out into a non-linear chaotic region that we can't escape even if we cut emissions entirely.
Chaotic systems do some scary unpredictable things, I wish I shared your confidence.
- yongjik 5y agoSure, I do agree that the world, especially the climate system, may veer off into uncharted territory soon. (Maybe it already started.) I'm just saying these particular "predictions" don't seem to contain any useful information. Anyone can say "things can go wrong." Hell, I can say that, and I may even be right.
- dvt 5y ago> Hell, I can say that, and I may even be right. Not only may you be right, you are in fact guaranteed to be right. Of course, predicting exactly when things go wrong is another ballgame altogether. Edit: the downvotes on HN are becoming so reactionary lately, it feels like it's slowly turning into reddit. Or maybe people just aren't familiar with Poincaré recurrence, etc.?
- Klinky 5y agoPerhaps the uncouth voting on HN is a further sign of impending societal collapse.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- ximeng 5y agoPlease don't comment about the voting on comments. It never does any good, and it makes boring reading. Please don't post comments saying that HN is turning into Reddit. It's a semi-noob illusion, as old as the hills. HN guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
- premium-gecko 5y agoFor the preservation of (inauthentic) harmony, HN has a special rule that says you can't mention the roving mob of the HN equivalent of Twitter blue checkmarks who don't have any substantive rebuttal, but just don't want your comment to be seen, so they downvote or flag it. It's common knowledge, but you can't acknowledge it, or you get the treatment.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y agoI think you are right. I guess it depends on specificity of predictions. In one white paper I called some of the current trends of 2021 ( granted, I personally believed they were relatively apparent, but I did have some arguments over my assumptions ).
- username90 5y agoThis is just the Mayan calendar phenomena. Just because something is old and accurate up until today doesn't meant that it actually predicts the end of the world.
- schoen 5y agoThe Mayan calendar also doesn't predict the world would end in 2012. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon#Maya_references_to_b%CA%BCak%CA%BCtun_13 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_phenomenon#Maya_reference... There is just one inscription predicting that a particular god would do something (that's not clearly understood) at that time. Charles Mann suggested that it could be just as plausible to interpret the "investiture" when this god comes to Earth as a kind of party or celebration, and not a cataclysm.
- premium-gecko 5y ago> we just knocked it out into a non-linear chaotic region What was supposed to have done that? Adding 100 ppm of CO2?