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Just read the original paper. This synopsis mostly just reiterates what the original paper says and concurs. I personally don't think we're going to see any co

Just read the original paper. This synopsis mostly just reiterates what the original paper says and concurs. I personally don't think we're going to see any collapse as drastic as the models predict. People have been predicting collapse forever, but either way, this article doesn't add much to the paper itself.

klysm 5y ago
I doubt the strength of arguments that go like “people have been saying X forever, but X hasn't happened yet - therefore not X” because it completely ignores evidence for X over time.
- AnimalMuppet 5y ago
  There are some things that look like X. There are also things that look like "not X". Taking it all in, should your estimation of the probability of X be going up, or down? The problem is, whichever way you answer, someone from the other side can say "You're not taking into account all the evidence". And you can say, "Yes, I am - you aren't!" And things from there go in completely unproductive directions.
rurp 5y ago
But people have been right many, many times about other societies collapsing. All groups collapse, it's just a matter of time. Our ability to create existential threats is extremely new in historical terms. We have very little evidence for how they will be managed, but so far the indications are mostly terrible.
- gmfawcett 5y ago
  You're saying that people have predicted the collapse of societies many, many times? Which ones?
- drdec 5y ago
  There are always people predicting the end of society just as there are always people predicting a stock market crash. I suspect they have similar levels of success.
- bserge 5y ago
  Wait until you hear that the Sun will collapse! We're all doomed! Better lie in bed and wait to die. Oh wait, we die! Oh no, another catastrophe! Imagine if the majority was simply paralyzed by this fear of change that fuels all the "collapse" theories. Everything is constantly changing and we all die, get over it.

klysm 5y ago

I doubt the strength of arguments that go like “people have been saying X forever, but X hasn't happened yet - therefore not X” because it completely ignores evidence for X over time.

AnimalMuppet 5y ago
There are some things that look like X. There are also things that look like "not X". Taking it all in, should your estimation of the probability of X be going up, or down? The problem is, whichever way you answer, someone from the other side can say "You're not taking into account all the evidence". And you can say, "Yes, I am - you aren't!" And things from there go in completely unproductive directions.

rurp 5y ago

But people have been right many, many times about other societies collapsing. All groups collapse, it's just a matter of time. Our ability to create existential threats is extremely new in historical terms. We have very little evidence for how they will be managed, but so far the indications are mostly terrible.

gmfawcett 5y ago
You're saying that people have predicted the collapse of societies many, many times? Which ones?
drdec 5y ago
There are always people predicting the end of society just as there are always people predicting a stock market crash. I suspect they have similar levels of success.
bserge 5y ago
Wait until you hear that the Sun will collapse! We're all doomed! Better lie in bed and wait to die. Oh wait, we die! Oh no, another catastrophe! Imagine if the majority was simply paralyzed by this fear of change that fuels all the "collapse" theories. Everything is constantly changing and we all die, get over it.