3 ms·

I’m not going to bother arguing about it, but suffice to say I don’t share your sunny optimism vis-a-vis nuclear holocaust.

ceilingcorner 5y ago
Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human extinction. This position was bolstered when nuclear winter was first conceptualized and modelled in 1983. However, models from the past decade consider total extinction very unlikely, and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.[25] Technically the risk may not be zero, as the climatic effects of nuclear war are uncertain and could theoretically be larger than current models suggest, just as they could theoretically be smaller than current models suggest. There could also be indirect risks, such as a societal collapse following nuclear war that can make humanity much more vulnerable to other existential threats https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust
- michaelmrose 5y ago
  We might live but we wouldn't live well and our long term prospects would be dim.
  - ceilingcorner 5y ago
    The claim was “extinction event.”
    - msbarnett 5y ago
      The phrase I used was actually “extinction scenario” rather than a singular event, and “most people die immediately, an unlucky few eke out lives of unspeakable horror and pestilence for a handful of generations before the species collapses entirely” was basically what I had in mind. Really though I can’t imagine what you think this pedantic obsession with whether or not everyone gets blown up immediately is adding to the conversation.
      - ceilingcorner 5y ago
        It’s not pedantic, it’s referencing actual studies on the topic. No expert thinks that humans would go extinct.
oblio 5y ago
We're incredibly resilient. We can eat anything and we have technology that can be used in some of the worst environments on the planet and that allow us to get shelter and food. We'd be 10 thousand not 10 billion and life would suck but we would survive. And the fallout would clear within a few decades or centuries.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  No, we wouldn't. The fallout could feasibly kill everyone without WMD protection within a few years. 10 000 people is not nearly enough for a modern division of labour - we'd be reverted back to prehistoric technology levels within a generation, with a bonus of fallout and absolute climate dysfunction. Given a sufficiently destructive nuclear exchange literally every single human could die.

ceilingcorner 5y ago

Many scholars have posited that a global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to human extinction. This position was bolstered when nuclear winter was first conceptualized and modelled in 1983. However, models from the past decade consider total extinction very unlikely, and suggest parts of the world would remain habitable.[25] Technically the risk may not be zero, as the climatic effects of nuclear war are uncertain and could theoretically be larger than current models suggest, just as they could theoretically be smaller than current models suggest. There could also be indirect risks, such as a societal collapse following nuclear war that can make humanity much more vulnerable to other existential threats https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_holocaust

michaelmrose 5y ago
We might live but we wouldn't live well and our long term prospects would be dim.
- ceilingcorner 5y ago
  The claim was “extinction event.”
  - msbarnett 5y ago
    The phrase I used was actually “extinction scenario” rather than a singular event, and “most people die immediately, an unlucky few eke out lives of unspeakable horror and pestilence for a handful of generations before the species collapses entirely” was basically what I had in mind. Really though I can’t imagine what you think this pedantic obsession with whether or not everyone gets blown up immediately is adding to the conversation.
    - ceilingcorner 5y ago
      It’s not pedantic, it’s referencing actual studies on the topic. No expert thinks that humans would go extinct.

oblio 5y ago

We're incredibly resilient. We can eat anything and we have technology that can be used in some of the worst environments on the planet and that allow us to get shelter and food. We'd be 10 thousand not 10 billion and life would suck but we would survive. And the fallout would clear within a few decades or centuries.

sudosysgen 5y ago
No, we wouldn't. The fallout could feasibly kill everyone without WMD protection within a few years. 10 000 people is not nearly enough for a modern division of labour - we'd be reverted back to prehistoric technology levels within a generation, with a bonus of fallout and absolute climate dysfunction. Given a sufficiently destructive nuclear exchange literally every single human could die.