I can't believe I'm taking the time to write this, but that's not a valid analogy. The predictions of civilization collapse by all manner of people and orgs usi

I can't believe I'm taking the time to write this, but that's not a valid analogy. The predictions of civilization collapse by all manner of people and orgs using vastly differing methods, skills, and assumptions at varying times is on a different level of complexity than a well-understood celestial cycle used to keep time for millennia. In short: past performance predicts future performance if the thing that's performing is predictable.