3 ms·

I do agree with your overall point. That said, while an impoverished family with a dozen children isn't consuming much today, inevitably, they're going to consu

by Aunche 5y ago

I do agree with your overall point. That said, while an impoverished family with a dozen children isn't consuming much today, inevitably, they're going to consume a lot more as their nation gets wealthier, which is what's happening in Asia. As you alluded to, the solution is to develop these countries more quickly, so they'll no longer be incentives to have more children.

giantg2 5y ago
But the birth rate isn't really the point. It's a proxy for consumption. As the nation gets wealthier, the per capita consumption goes up and generally creates a net increase in consumption.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption. For example, it would be better if Nigeria hit a European standard of living and stabilizes population sooner at say 400 million people. The alternative is they grow per capita consumption more slowly and hit an EU standard and stabilize later at 1 billion people.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    "The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption." Generally the accelerations coincide with one another. The only reason the population is increasing now is because some developments are being taken advantage of like food supply and medical care. It depends if sooner is better. Many times it's easier to implement new technologies from scratch rather than revamp old infrastructure. If we rush implementation, then it can just be a waste of resources (look at sewage treatment in many parts of Africa that modeled it after the US).

3 ms·

I do agree with your overall point. That said, while an impoverished family with a dozen children isn't consuming much today, inevitably, they're going to consu

by Aunche 5y ago

giantg2 5y ago
But the birth rate isn't really the point. It's a proxy for consumption. As the nation gets wealthier, the per capita consumption goes up and generally creates a net increase in consumption.
- s1artibartfast 5y ago
  The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption. For example, it would be better if Nigeria hit a European standard of living and stabilizes population sooner at say 400 million people. The alternative is they grow per capita consumption more slowly and hit an EU standard and stabilize later at 1 billion people.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    "The point is that developing countries will increase their per capita consumption regardless. If birth rate decreases with level of consumption/gdp, you want to accelerate into it, thereby limiting the peak total consumption." Generally the accelerations coincide with one another. The only reason the population is increasing now is because some developments are being taken advantage of like food supply and medical care. It depends if sooner is better. Many times it's easier to implement new technologies from scratch rather than revamp old infrastructure. If we rush implementation, then it can just be a waste of resources (look at sewage treatment in many parts of Africa that modeled it after the US).