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This is talking about global resources. As resources dwindle they will get exponentially more expensive and become available only to a few. This isn't about a

This is talking about global resources. As resources dwindle they will get exponentially more expensive and become available only to a few. This isn't about a temporary societal collapse, and you would be a fool to ignore it.

reedjosh 5y ago
I'm not ignoring it anyway. I do think that monocropping and the like do pose a potential for a collapse. That said systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the cost rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.
- Layke1123 5y ago
  Ha ha I love this. On one hand, you criticize systems thinkers and computer models as only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics even though we see climate change devastation first hand, and on the other, you invoke the power of the "invisible hand". The irony.
oceanplexian 5y ago
Resources aren't dwindling. You could fit the entire population of Earth in a space the size of Texas with the equivalent population density of NYC. To support all of those people, the Earth has more than enough nuclear fuel in the oceans for thousands of years. Water is not a problem either when you have oceans and unlimited amount of energy, and with water and limitless energy it's not that hard to grow enough food to feed everyone (Hydroponics, gene editing, artificial meat, etc). Perhaps in a thousand years we will run into some sort of natural limit, but by then I highly doubt humans will be a single planet species.
- david927 5y ago
  You're uninformed. Resources are unequivocally dwindling. No question about it. It doesn't matter that there are only seven billion humans. We're consuming resources and we're doing so incredibly quickly. How much oil was in the ground 100 years ago versus today? You'll counter that we'll switch to solar. I agree. But do you know how long and costly such a switch will be? Water is not a problem because we have seawater? Do you know the struggles with desalination and how expensive it is? The main take away here isn't just that resources are dwindling. You need to understand that 100 years ago, you could just stick a single pipe in the ground and get massive amounts of oil. The EROI for oil was over 1200. It basically came free. In 1950 it was 60. Now it's around 1.6. Once it drops below one, it makes no sense to extract it. Whether or not oil "still exists" is moot. And this is the big point: all the cheap seats are taken. All the easy resources have been used and we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for what's remaining. Even renewable resources have been swept clean. Less than 10% of big fish are left in the ocean. Yes, we can switch to fish farming but it will take a while, be much more expensive and produce a lot less fish. Hydroponics? Really? Do you know how expensive that would be? If you were shipwrecked on a desert island, you would just say, "It's fine! I'll just mine some iron and make a ship! And if I get thirsty I'm surrounded by ocean water!" It's simply not that easy. You don't seem concerned. It's probably because you're wealthy. This is a threat to the poorest of those seven billion, and it's a big threat. Don't be such a Pollyanna when it's about their lives.

reedjosh 5y ago

I'm not ignoring it anyway. I do think that monocropping and the like do pose a potential for a collapse. That said systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the cost rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.

Layke1123 5y ago
Ha ha I love this. On one hand, you criticize systems thinkers and computer models as only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics even though we see climate change devastation first hand, and on the other, you invoke the power of the "invisible hand". The irony.

oceanplexian 5y ago

Resources aren't dwindling. You could fit the entire population of Earth in a space the size of Texas with the equivalent population density of NYC. To support all of those people, the Earth has more than enough nuclear fuel in the oceans for thousands of years. Water is not a problem either when you have oceans and unlimited amount of energy, and with water and limitless energy it's not that hard to grow enough food to feed everyone (Hydroponics, gene editing, artificial meat, etc). Perhaps in a thousand years we will run into some sort of natural limit, but by then I highly doubt humans will be a single planet species.

david927 5y ago
You're uninformed. Resources are unequivocally dwindling. No question about it. It doesn't matter that there are only seven billion humans. We're consuming resources and we're doing so incredibly quickly. How much oil was in the ground 100 years ago versus today? You'll counter that we'll switch to solar. I agree. But do you know how long and costly such a switch will be? Water is not a problem because we have seawater? Do you know the struggles with desalination and how expensive it is? The main take away here isn't just that resources are dwindling. You need to understand that 100 years ago, you could just stick a single pipe in the ground and get massive amounts of oil. The EROI for oil was over 1200. It basically came free. In 1950 it was 60. Now it's around 1.6. Once it drops below one, it makes no sense to extract it. Whether or not oil "still exists" is moot. And this is the big point: all the cheap seats are taken. All the easy resources have been used and we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for what's remaining. Even renewable resources have been swept clean. Less than 10% of big fish are left in the ocean. Yes, we can switch to fish farming but it will take a while, be much more expensive and produce a lot less fish. Hydroponics? Really? Do you know how expensive that would be? If you were shipwrecked on a desert island, you would just say, "It's fine! I'll just mine some iron and make a ship! And if I get thirsty I'm surrounded by ocean water!" It's simply not that easy. You don't seem concerned. It's probably because you're wealthy. This is a threat to the poorest of those seven billion, and it's a big threat. Don't be such a Pollyanna when it's about their lives.