4 ms·

Exponential growth on a finite planet. What could go wrong.

pope_meat 5y ago
Don't worry, a future technology will fix everything. Now get out there and buy a new car, buddy.
david927 5y ago
Technology has blessed us. We've come up with "super straws" to extract oil incredibly efficiently giving us cheap oil, we've devised huge barges which act essentially as vacuum cleaners for fish in the ocean giving us incredibly cheap fish. The problem is that this skews the curve that would normally slowly taper supply down, which would increase prices and lower demand. Now, instead, because of this blessed technology, we'll march quickly on full demand to the end and have nothing left. We'll empty the oceans of all the cheap fish and won't know until it's all gone.
gruez 5y ago
But it's not going to continue forever. AFAIK we're supposed to level out in 2100.
- alistairSH 5y ago
  60 years after the collapse of society, if the date in the heading is correct.
99_00 5y ago
Why would growth continue to be exponential? >The 2019 forecast from the United Nation's Population Division (made before the COVID-19 pandemic) shows that world population growth peaked at 2.1% per year in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1%, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  >and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100 That is still exponential.
paxys 5y ago
Growth will stabilize and eventually the global population will decrease. Soon the problem won't be too many people but too many old people without enough kids/robots to replace them.
andrew_ 5y ago
Highly recommend this Joe Rogan episode with David Sinclair [1]. He touches on population growth, fertility rates, and technology. Most importantly, what the impact of living longer will have. I've dug deeper than the podcast and read some of his writing on population and it's really interesting stuff. It may make you rethink the "we'll breed to our doom" mantra. [1] https://open.spotify.com/episode/55UlxYWPfV46f7puMkZPeD https://open.spotify.com/episode/55UlxYWPfV46f7puMkZPeD

Don't worry, a future technology will fix everything. Now get out there and buy a new car, buddy.

Technology has blessed us. We've come up with "super straws" to extract oil incredibly efficiently giving us cheap oil, we've devised huge barges which act essentially as vacuum cleaners for fish in the ocean giving us incredibly cheap fish. The problem is that this skews the curve that would normally slowly taper supply down, which would increase prices and lower demand. Now, instead, because of this blessed technology, we'll march quickly on full demand to the end and have nothing left. We'll empty the oceans of all the cheap fish and won't know until it's all gone.

gruez 5y ago

But it's not going to continue forever. AFAIK we're supposed to level out in 2100.

alistairSH 5y ago
60 years after the collapse of society, if the date in the heading is correct.

99_00 5y ago

Why would growth continue to be exponential? >The 2019 forecast from the United Nation's Population Division (made before the COVID-19 pandemic) shows that world population growth peaked at 2.1% per year in 1968, has since dropped to 1.1%, and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_growth https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Projections_of_population_grow...

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
>and could drop even further to 0.1% by 2100 That is still exponential.

paxys 5y ago

Growth will stabilize and eventually the global population will decrease. Soon the problem won't be too many people but too many old people without enough kids/robots to replace them.

andrew_ 5y ago

Highly recommend this Joe Rogan episode with David Sinclair [1]. He touches on population growth, fertility rates, and technology. Most importantly, what the impact of living longer will have. I've dug deeper than the podcast and read some of his writing on population and it's really interesting stuff. It may make you rethink the "we'll breed to our doom" mantra. [1] https://open.spotify.com/episode/55UlxYWPfV46f7puMkZPeD https://open.spotify.com/episode/55UlxYWPfV46f7puMkZPeD