6 ms·

https://www.dltk-teach.com/fairy-tales/chicken-little/story.htm https://www.dltk-teach.com/fairy-tales/chicken-little/story....

wizzwizz4 5y ago
Societal collapse is not as unprecedented and deadly as the sky falling in. It's something that's happened before, many times: ever heard of “the fall of Rome”? And where is Rome now? A thriving city… within a completely different society to the one it had before.
- david927 5y ago
  This is talking about global resources. As resources dwindle they will get exponentially more expensive and become available only to a few. This isn't about a temporary societal collapse, and you would be a fool to ignore it.
  - reedjosh 5y ago
    I'm not ignoring it anyway. I do think that monocropping and the like do pose a potential for a collapse. That said systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the cost rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.
    - Layke1123 5y ago
      Ha ha I love this. On one hand, you criticize systems thinkers and computer models as only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics even though we see climate change devastation first hand, and on the other, you invoke the power of the "invisible hand". The irony.
  - oceanplexian 5y ago
    Resources aren't dwindling. You could fit the entire population of Earth in a space the size of Texas with the equivalent population density of NYC. To support all of those people, the Earth has more than enough nuclear fuel in the oceans for thousands of years. Water is not a problem either when you have oceans and unlimited amount of energy, and with water and limitless energy it's not that hard to grow enough food to feed everyone (Hydroponics, gene editing, artificial meat, etc). Perhaps in a thousand years we will run into some sort of natural limit, but by then I highly doubt humans will be a single planet species.
    - david927 5y ago
      You're uninformed. Resources are unequivocally dwindling. No question about it. It doesn't matter that there are only seven billion humans. We're consuming resources and we're doing so incredibly quickly. How much oil was in the ground 100 years ago versus today? You'll counter that we'll switch to solar. I agree. But do you know how long and costly such a switch will be? Water is not a problem because we have seawater? Do you know the struggles with desalination and how expensive it is? The main take away here isn't just that resources are dwindling. You need to understand that 100 years ago, you could just stick a single pipe in the ground and get massive amounts of oil. The EROI for oil was over 1200. It basically came free. In 1950 it was 60. Now it's around 1.6. Once it drops below one, it makes no sense to extract it. Whether or not oil "still exists" is moot. And this is the big point: all the cheap seats are taken. All the easy resources have been used and we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for what's remaining. Even renewable resources have been swept clean. Less than 10% of big fish are left in the ocean. Yes, we can switch to fish farming but it will take a while, be much more expensive and produce a lot less fish. Hydroponics? Really? Do you know how expensive that would be? If you were shipwrecked on a desert island, you would just say, "It's fine! I'll just mine some iron and make a ship! And if I get thirsty I'm surrounded by ocean water!" It's simply not that easy. You don't seem concerned. It's probably because you're wealthy. This is a threat to the poorest of those seven billion, and it's a big threat. Don't be such a Pollyanna when it's about their lives.
- Kluny 5y ago
  You don't have to look back that far. 15 years ago, South Africa was a wealthy and growing country. This week, they have this going on: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-africa-looting-1.6102001 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-africa-looting-1.6102001 It's in response to the imprisonment of the former president, who was jailed for failing to appear in court for crimes that he definitely did commit. The looters and arsonists are mad that he's being held accountable.
  - FredPret 5y ago
    The looters are mad because he’s a prince in a major tribe in South Africa. They are also mad because despite almost three decades of democracy, they are still dirt poor
  - eloff 5y ago
    South Africa was doomed by apartheid. Democracy doesn't function if you have an uneducated populace. They were uneducated because of apartheid policies. It will take many generations for that stain to be undone. Leaving the policy in place was untenable for humanitarian and practical reasons. Simply repealing it and giving the vote to everyone was also untenable. It was a lose lose situation and the only good solution was and remains to leave while it's still possible. South Africa is an extreme case of how investment in education (severe underinvestment in this case) is strongly correlated with the future prospects of a nation.
    - FredPret 5y ago
      But it’s not just down to the level of investment. SA spends quite a lot on education. Granted, it doesn’t get much value for the money, but there’s something else wrong
      - eloff 5y ago
        Its not what it spends now specifically that is haunting it, it's the decades where it didn't educate the majority of its citizens. It's an effect that lags multiple generations.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
counternotions 5y ago
What is up with what appears to be the growing audience of “doom porn” enthusiasts?
- Apocryphon 5y ago
  That audience has always been there. In chaotic times doomsday scenarios seem reasonable. In peaceful times they seem exciting.
  - finiteseries 5y ago
    Always remember the doers, builders, fixers, and makers with the audacity to solve those very same problems have, and always will be there too. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34959327-the-wizard-and-the-prophet https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34959327-the-wizard-and-...
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > What is up with what appears to be the growing audience of “doom porn” enthusiasts? It's a convenient excuse for complacency. If everything is going to shit in 2040, why bother acting now to better yourself, your community, your country or the world? Also, drama.
long_time_gone 5y ago
Without any context it’s hard to discern your point. Who is Chicken Little in this scenario?
- reedjosh 5y ago
  Yeah, I knew this was a cheap post. From my post below though... systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the costs rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.
  - selfhoster11 5y ago
    So far, the power of the invisible hand has brought not much more besides suffering for the average person.
    - reedjosh 5y ago
      The average person in the US lives better than a king did throughout most of history. You're free to go live in the wilderness if you think modernity has only brought about suffering, but capitalism brought you that device you typed this message on.
      - selfhoster11 5y ago
        I agree that the average person today lives like a king, but I disagree that capitalism is what brought it about. IMO, the capitalism = progress relationship is coincidental, not causal. The march of science and technology would have continued, capitalism or no capitalism. Even the Soviets, for all the problems and violence caused by their unfree economic system, managed to make tech and scientific progress work, albeit slower. And yes, capitalism brought me the smartphone that I'm typing on today: with all the harmful, attention-grabbing and addictive features. That's why I'm trying to quit smartphones altogether.

wizzwizz4 5y ago

Societal collapse is not as unprecedented and deadly as the sky falling in. It's something that's happened before, many times: ever heard of “the fall of Rome”? And where is Rome now? A thriving city… within a completely different society to the one it had before.

david927 5y ago
This is talking about global resources. As resources dwindle they will get exponentially more expensive and become available only to a few. This isn't about a temporary societal collapse, and you would be a fool to ignore it.
- reedjosh 5y ago
  I'm not ignoring it anyway. I do think that monocropping and the like do pose a potential for a collapse. That said systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the cost rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.
  - Layke1123 5y ago
    Ha ha I love this. On one hand, you criticize systems thinkers and computer models as only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics even though we see climate change devastation first hand, and on the other, you invoke the power of the "invisible hand". The irony.
- oceanplexian 5y ago
  Resources aren't dwindling. You could fit the entire population of Earth in a space the size of Texas with the equivalent population density of NYC. To support all of those people, the Earth has more than enough nuclear fuel in the oceans for thousands of years. Water is not a problem either when you have oceans and unlimited amount of energy, and with water and limitless energy it's not that hard to grow enough food to feed everyone (Hydroponics, gene editing, artificial meat, etc). Perhaps in a thousand years we will run into some sort of natural limit, but by then I highly doubt humans will be a single planet species.
  - david927 5y ago
    You're uninformed. Resources are unequivocally dwindling. No question about it. It doesn't matter that there are only seven billion humans. We're consuming resources and we're doing so incredibly quickly. How much oil was in the ground 100 years ago versus today? You'll counter that we'll switch to solar. I agree. But do you know how long and costly such a switch will be? Water is not a problem because we have seawater? Do you know the struggles with desalination and how expensive it is? The main take away here isn't just that resources are dwindling. You need to understand that 100 years ago, you could just stick a single pipe in the ground and get massive amounts of oil. The EROI for oil was over 1200. It basically came free. In 1950 it was 60. Now it's around 1.6. Once it drops below one, it makes no sense to extract it. Whether or not oil "still exists" is moot. And this is the big point: all the cheap seats are taken. All the easy resources have been used and we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for what's remaining. Even renewable resources have been swept clean. Less than 10% of big fish are left in the ocean. Yes, we can switch to fish farming but it will take a while, be much more expensive and produce a lot less fish. Hydroponics? Really? Do you know how expensive that would be? If you were shipwrecked on a desert island, you would just say, "It's fine! I'll just mine some iron and make a ship! And if I get thirsty I'm surrounded by ocean water!" It's simply not that easy. You don't seem concerned. It's probably because you're wealthy. This is a threat to the poorest of those seven billion, and it's a big threat. Don't be such a Pollyanna when it's about their lives.
Kluny 5y ago
You don't have to look back that far. 15 years ago, South Africa was a wealthy and growing country. This week, they have this going on: https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-africa-looting-1.6102001 https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-africa-looting-1.6102001 It's in response to the imprisonment of the former president, who was jailed for failing to appear in court for crimes that he definitely did commit. The looters and arsonists are mad that he's being held accountable.
- FredPret 5y ago
  The looters are mad because he’s a prince in a major tribe in South Africa. They are also mad because despite almost three decades of democracy, they are still dirt poor
- eloff 5y ago
  South Africa was doomed by apartheid. Democracy doesn't function if you have an uneducated populace. They were uneducated because of apartheid policies. It will take many generations for that stain to be undone. Leaving the policy in place was untenable for humanitarian and practical reasons. Simply repealing it and giving the vote to everyone was also untenable. It was a lose lose situation and the only good solution was and remains to leave while it's still possible. South Africa is an extreme case of how investment in education (severe underinvestment in this case) is strongly correlated with the future prospects of a nation.
  - FredPret 5y ago
    But it’s not just down to the level of investment. SA spends quite a lot on education. Granted, it doesn’t get much value for the money, but there’s something else wrong
    - eloff 5y ago
      Its not what it spends now specifically that is haunting it, it's the decades where it didn't educate the majority of its citizens. It's an effect that lags multiple generations.
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]

counternotions 5y ago

What is up with what appears to be the growing audience of “doom porn” enthusiasts?

Apocryphon 5y ago
That audience has always been there. In chaotic times doomsday scenarios seem reasonable. In peaceful times they seem exciting.
- finiteseries 5y ago
  Always remember the doers, builders, fixers, and makers with the audacity to solve those very same problems have, and always will be there too. https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34959327-the-wizard-and-the-prophet https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34959327-the-wizard-and-...
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> What is up with what appears to be the growing audience of “doom porn” enthusiasts? It's a convenient excuse for complacency. If everything is going to shit in 2040, why bother acting now to better yourself, your community, your country or the world? Also, drama.

long_time_gone 5y ago

Without any context it’s hard to discern your point. Who is Chicken Little in this scenario?

reedjosh 5y ago
Yeah, I knew this was a cheap post. From my post below though... systems thinking and computer models have led to predictions of collapse only slightly more convincing than religious fanatics. Humans are highly adaptable and the power of the economic invisible hand is enormous. I for example will be growing more and more of my own food as I see the quality of food dwindle while the costs rise. Solar is only becoming cheaper. The future can be a great place, but sure we should think about what kind of future we may be facing if we don't make preparations or let someone else guide us there.
- selfhoster11 5y ago
  So far, the power of the invisible hand has brought not much more besides suffering for the average person.
  - reedjosh 5y ago
    The average person in the US lives better than a king did throughout most of history. You're free to go live in the wilderness if you think modernity has only brought about suffering, but capitalism brought you that device you typed this message on.
    - selfhoster11 5y ago
      I agree that the average person today lives like a king, but I disagree that capitalism is what brought it about. IMO, the capitalism = progress relationship is coincidental, not causal. The march of science and technology would have continued, capitalism or no capitalism. Even the Soviets, for all the problems and violence caused by their unfree economic system, managed to make tech and scientific progress work, albeit slower. And yes, capitalism brought me the smartphone that I'm typing on today: with all the harmful, attention-grabbing and addictive features. That's why I'm trying to quit smartphones altogether.