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The counterpoint is that Telsa managed to emerge from nothing in that time. Incumbent ICE car companies had no incentive to start the transition so it's necessa

The counterpoint is that Telsa managed to emerge from nothing in that time. Incumbent ICE car companies had no incentive to start the transition so it's necessary to introduce an artificial constraint.

closeparen 5y ago
Emerging from nothing is a lot easier and faster than migrating the long tail.
- rorykoehler 5y ago
  One of the German ICE CEO's was going on about how they have over a century of experience and Tesla will never catch up. There is something in this as most parts of the car don't change when becoming electric and the bits that do become simpler. They surely have the resources, architects and design teams to do this migration (which they have proven as they all now have electric car platforms in production). It was a matter of will not inability.
paganel 5y ago
Many, many EU citizens can not afford Teslas or equivalently priced EVs. Even the electric version of the common VW Golf is 30-to-50% more expensive than its ICE counter-part (which is not that cheap, either).
- xyzzyz 5y ago
  Yeah. If you’re American, imagine being being 25% poorer, and cars being 50% more expensive (due to excise taxes, displacement taxes, 20%+ VAT and more) — that’s the reality faced by Europeans.
  - SECProto 5y ago
    Make sure you also imagine that competent public transport and/or active transportation options are pretty widely available as alternatives.
    - f6v 5y ago
      Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Paris, and Vienna have good public transport network. But many people live in smaller cities/outskirts where car is mandatory.
    - xyzzyz 5y ago
      This is not the reality that most Europeans live in. Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent. US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 people. In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller.
      - SECProto 5y ago
        > Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent I just opened up google maps, picked out two random small towns in Germany, and the driving distance between them is 200km/2hrs, while the transit length is 3hrs (with a transfer in a major city). Doing the same in the Northeast, one of the best areas for transit in the US, resulted in two towns 120miles/2hrs drive distance, and 18hr/6 transfers transit distance. So yes, a car is more convenient in both cases, but transit is a competent alternative (which is what I said). France and Italy had comparable results to Germany, Spain did not. Germany, France, and Italy makes up roughly half of the EU population (add in Belgium or the Netherlands if you wanna be precise, they've got decent transit too). > US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 You appear to have taken this article [1], and picked out the top three EU countries. > In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller. "Owning a car" is not the same metric as "Needing to own a car to do literally anything because there are no alternatives". Germany, France, and Italy all rank higher than the US in annual passenger-km's of rail travel, despite each having populations 1/5th to 1/4th the size of the US[2]. Or look up modal share by country for other info - there's no handy Wikipedia summary, unfortunately, but for example, Germany is about 30% transit commutes. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usag...
- rorykoehler 5y ago
  Only because we haven't priced in the externalized costs of ICE (anywhere in the world).
kergonath 5y ago
Tesla is a useful idiot. It's a toy for rich people who like to buy shiny things and pretend they care. It isn't a solution to anything. What we need is lots of small and cheap cars that can be built easily and on a massive scale. Something akin to the original Volkswagen, or an automobile equivalent of the liberty ships. Or even better, more public transport, and more remote work.

closeparen 5y ago

Emerging from nothing is a lot easier and faster than migrating the long tail.

rorykoehler 5y ago
One of the German ICE CEO's was going on about how they have over a century of experience and Tesla will never catch up. There is something in this as most parts of the car don't change when becoming electric and the bits that do become simpler. They surely have the resources, architects and design teams to do this migration (which they have proven as they all now have electric car platforms in production). It was a matter of will not inability.

paganel 5y ago

Many, many EU citizens can not afford Teslas or equivalently priced EVs. Even the electric version of the common VW Golf is 30-to-50% more expensive than its ICE counter-part (which is not that cheap, either).

xyzzyz 5y ago
Yeah. If you’re American, imagine being being 25% poorer, and cars being 50% more expensive (due to excise taxes, displacement taxes, 20%+ VAT and more) — that’s the reality faced by Europeans.
- SECProto 5y ago
  Make sure you also imagine that competent public transport and/or active transportation options are pretty widely available as alternatives.
  - f6v 5y ago
    Major cities such as Berlin, Hamburg, Paris, and Vienna have good public transport network. But many people live in smaller cities/outskirts where car is mandatory.
  - xyzzyz 5y ago
    This is not the reality that most Europeans live in. Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent. US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 people. In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller.
    - SECProto 5y ago
      > Europeans who live in major cities might enjoy their good public transport options, but in minor cities, towns and rural areas, public transport is crap to non-existent I just opened up google maps, picked out two random small towns in Germany, and the driving distance between them is 200km/2hrs, while the transit length is 3hrs (with a transfer in a major city). Doing the same in the Northeast, one of the best areas for transit in the US, resulted in two towns 120miles/2hrs drive distance, and 18hr/6 transfers transit distance. So yes, a car is more convenient in both cases, but transit is a competent alternative (which is what I said). France and Italy had comparable results to Germany, Spain did not. Germany, France, and Italy makes up roughly half of the EU population (add in Belgium or the Netherlands if you wanna be precise, they've got decent transit too). > US has 800 cars per 1000 people, but Italy and Spain have 650/1000 and even Poland, which is significantly poorer than US, has over 700 cars per 1000 You appear to have taken this article [1], and picked out the top three EU countries. > In Europe, car ownership is only slightly less of a necessity than it is in the US, and I think if you look at the data that measure cars not per capita, but per household, the gap in car ownership between US and European countries would be even smaller. "Owning a car" is not the same metric as "Needing to own a car to do literally anything because there are no alternatives". Germany, France, and Italy all rank higher than the US in annual passenger-km's of rail travel, despite each having populations 1/5th to 1/4th the size of the US[2]. Or look up modal share by country for other info - there's no handy Wikipedia summary, unfortunately, but for example, Germany is about 30% transit commutes. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usage https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_rail_usag...
rorykoehler 5y ago
Only because we haven't priced in the externalized costs of ICE (anywhere in the world).

kergonath 5y ago

Tesla is a useful idiot. It's a toy for rich people who like to buy shiny things and pretend they care. It isn't a solution to anything. What we need is lots of small and cheap cars that can be built easily and on a massive scale. Something akin to the original Volkswagen, or an automobile equivalent of the liberty ships. Or even better, more public transport, and more remote work.