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Moon wobble to bring surge in coastal flooding in 2030s, NASA study predicts
- technocratius 5y agoIf I understand correctly it's mainly the effect of the moon's nodal precession [0] in combination with climate-change induced rising sea levels. I am curious about its effects on non-US coastal cities as well (also personally, as I happen to live in one). Hopefully it will be repeated/extended in the future. [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_precession#Nodal_precession https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_precession#Nodal_prece...
- zohch 5y ago> If I understand correctly it's mainly the effect of the moon's nodal precession [0] in combination with climate-change induced rising sea levels. Sea level rise since 1995 has averaged 3.4 mm per year[1]. Is there an expectation that this will accelerate significantly? or is a change in 30mm expected to contribute significantly to flooding? [1]: https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/ https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/
- klyrs 5y agoAs the average temperature increases, it seems reasonable to expect the rate of melting, thus sea level rise, increase. Add to that highly nonlinear effects like the "clathrate gun", and a continuing linear increase in sea level seems highly non-obvious
- swader999 5y agoWarm temps push more water to the atmosphere so its not linear in terms of sea level rise. You'd expect more ice to melt but you might also see more snow, glaciers growing.
- klyrs 5y agoNope, I'd expect the current trend of glaciers and icecaps melting to continue or accelerate. And for rainy seasons to get more severe. As they have been.
- zohch 5y agoBut this is talking about 2030, not 2100. I guess the question is, if sea level rise stopped completely today, would there be no problem in 2030?
- klyrs 5y agoWhy is that the question? Is there any evidence to suggest that the sea level will completely stop rising today?
- zohch 5y ago> Why is that the question? Because the article is about 2030 and unless the rate of sea level rise accelerates significantly in 9 years that means sea level will be about 36 mm higher in 9 years. And it is hard for me to see how 36 mm higher sea level will flood much of anything, so it seems that the moon wobble will do most of the heavy lifting if we compare the situation today to the predicted situation in 2030. > Is there any evidence to suggest that the sea level will completely stop rising today? No.
- klyrs 5y agoConsider the mass of 36mm integrated over the area of our oceans. That mass has been converted from solid to liquid. What was once rigid is now a veritable loose canon. The effect of tidal forces is to concentrate that mass towards the moon -- so the amplitude of flooding caused by a lunar wobble should be expected to be greater with more liquid water available to participate. I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the impact of that rise.
- dillondoyle 5y agoIt seems like a lot? Just first google result 2* C warming would be ~10cm and reading the effects of that sounds pretty bad. https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/19/16908402/global-warming-2-degrees-climate-change https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2018/1/19/1690840...
- azinman2 5y agoSo what will coastal cities (eg Bay Area) do?
- bufferoverflow 5y agoDoes Bay Area have that problem even theoretically? They are quite high up. It's the flat near sea level areas like Florida that are in danger.
- foota 5y agoAren't places like the pier area pretty low?
- ianai 5y agoYou might be able to answer this yourself based on the tides now. Just ask what a more exaggerated tide would do.
- nomel 5y agoIf current tides are putting you within 30cm of danger, then you're already flooding frequently from sea storms. Tides aren't the danger when living on the coast, wind that pushes water is.
- bburrito 5y agoProbably look at places that already have flooding on king tides. San Diego, Newport Beach, seal beach, motto bay, etc. I think a lot of the stuff on sf bay is built on piers high above the highest tides.
- tbihl 5y agoWhere is the flooding in San Diego? Honestly wondering, because the only places I might expect are Mission Beach and maybe Imperial Beach.
- fy20 5y agoThe author worked really hard to avoid mentioning climate change, but then there's this at the bottom of the article: > "Global sea level rise will have been at work for another decade. The higher seas, amplified by the lunar cycle, will cause a leap in flood numbers on almost all U.S. mainland coastlines, Hawaii, and Guam," a NASA news release stated. So in next decade we can blame the moon instead of admitting the flooding could be caused be climate change?
- smt88 5y agoClimate change is mentioned in the third sentence: > "The rapid increase will start in the mid-2030s, when a lunar cycle will amplify rising sea levels caused by the climate crisis..." CNN does not have an anti-science agenda.
- Bluestein 5y ago(Admitedly, going with climate "crisis" is a bit oblique, if a reference to climate change ...)
- smt88 5y agoThe word "climate crisis" in the article is a hyperlink to their dedicated climate change section with a constant stream[1] of articles about climate change. 1. https://www.cnn.com/specials/world/cnn-climate https://www.cnn.com/specials/world/cnn-climate
- drummojg 5y agoThere is nothing CNN loves so much, as doom.
- Bluestein 5y agoThat indeed shows intent and meaning ... (The wording remains oblique though ... ... Although I would count myself amongst the first to be happily surprised if climate change as a problem has reached enough "mindshare" and currency that a reference to the "crisis" inmediately brings "climate change" to mind. And it might have, and I am just out of the mainstream lately :)
- dogorman 5y agoThat CNN article is a crappy rewrite of this NASA press release: https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/222/study-projects-a-surge-in-coastal-flooding-starting-in-2030s/ https://sealevel.nasa.gov/news/222/study-projects-a-surge-in...
- koheripbal 5y agoWhich itself does not have any specific data on how much peak high tides will rise. At least it gives the period of the lunar cycle -18.6 years, and we're at the peak right now.
- londons_explore 5y agoThe article misses out a very important detail... What is the scale of this effect? If I normally have a 7 meter tidal range, will I be getting a 9 meter range? Or just a 7.01 meter range?
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- smt88 5y agoThe second sentence of the article makes it clear that the moon's natural cycle combined with climate change will create an unprecedented flood risk. No one should write articles for unbelievers. They are not unbelievers because they don't have access to enough facts. They're unbelievers for reasons of emotion, identity, contrarianism, stupidity, etc.
- saboot 5y agohttps://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&hl=en&user=bGh3U7kAAAAJ&sortby=pubdate&citation_for_view=bGh3U7kAAAAJ:KxtntwgDAa4C https://scholar.google.com/citations?view_op=view_citation&h... This appears to be the article being discussed. Figure two and reference 30 give numbers for the magnitude of the 18 year variation due to moon wobble. In St Petersburg, Florida, it's a 4.7 cm variation. Other parts of the world can experience up to a 30 cm variation of high tide variation. So basically it's definitely something to account for with the linear rise of sea level due to climate change, with some years being worse relatively to others.
- beowulfey 5y agoThank you for posting the original paper. Figure 2 has a great depiction of the effect. That 4.7 cm variation, because it cycles every 18 years, can increase or decrease the effects of inherent sea level rise: at a minimum of the cycle, an expected sea level increase of 8.9 cm instead ends up only being 4.1 cm; but by the next decade, an expected increase of 9.4 cm surges to a peak high tide of 14.1 cm higher than before. One main takeaway is this effect occurs at different times around the world–within the US, different states will experience flooding in different decades. Federal mitigation efforts can be focused on regions that would be impacted first. However, by the 2030s, most seacoasts will be flooding at least on occasion due to extreme high tides. The other effect predicted is, per year, the extreme high tide days will cluster together within a month or so in each region. They mention this because policy or planning for these types of extreme events usually think about it in terms of single isolated events, but this model predicts short “seasons” of extreme tides. Future mitigations should take that into account.
- saboot 5y agoNo problem, this article is being shared on other news sites now. And it's genuinely confusing to me why the original nature article isn't linked, or why Figure 2 isn't shown in any of them. The figure speaks for itself and even looks very nice. I don't understand reporting on scientific news. EDIT: Actually axios linked to the original article, so good for them https://www.axios.com/nasa-moon-wobble-coastal-flooding-c4623977-31be-44d6-a73a-1da9107f3316.html https://www.axios.com/nasa-moon-wobble-coastal-flooding-c462...
- jmkni 5y agoIs it only the United States?
- swader999 5y agoNo, its the moon too.
- musiciangames 5y agoOff topic, but how are these OneTrust cookie settings GDPR compliant? I though there had to be a way to opt out of these? Link different devices Always Active Different devices can be determined as belonging to you or your household in support of one or more of purposes.
- dublin 5y agoStill trying to figure out how fracking, eating meat, and SUVs can possibly affect the Moon's wobble....