4 ms·

Another issue which this article ignores, and so does the fear mongering clickbait media, is how many asymptotic people we are testing now vs 6 months ago or a

by zpeti 5y ago

Another issue which this article ignores, and so does the fear mongering clickbait media, is how many asymptotic people we are testing now vs 6 months ago or a year ago. It’s way more. The UK especially is testing like crazy. But that means a lot more cases appear in the statistics than before, even if the R rate is only marginally higher. We simply don’t know what the actual r rate of all the different variants are because we had different test velocities as well. And this is crucial in whether we should be hysterical about Delta or not. Also, wtf happened to cases in India? It’s not exactly all that catastrophic any more. In fact by the time the media had their 2 week India is dying narrative, cases declined. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/

gonzo 5y ago
> even if the R rate is only marginally higher. R is an exponent. Small changes in an exponent lead to huge differences in the result.
- zpeti 5y ago
  How does that change my point? The article says the original variant had an R rate of 2.7, and delta had one between 4 and 9. That’s a big claim with no data. And thanks I understand how exponential works.
dharma1 5y ago
The test velocity has been fairly stable now for long enough to establish the delta variant R rate is significantly higher than with the previous variants. We are definitely doing more testing in the UK than a year ago and it’s likely reflected in the case stats, but at the same time the rate of case growth during the last few weeks looks like a straight line up and that’s not a good thing. We will likely see fewer hospitalisations than before due to a fairly successful vaccination effort, particularly with the edlerly, but as cases go up so does the number of people who may not die but end up with long covid. Also, the more people infected, the better breeding ground for the virus to develop new variants, and a higher chance of vaccine escape due to evolutionary pressure.
paulddraper 5y ago
Comparing case counts in 2020 was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. It all depended on the availability of tests.
aws_ls 5y ago
> Also, wtf happened to cases in India? It’s not exactly all that catastrophic any more. In fact by the time the media had their 2 week India is dying narrative, cases declined. Media may cry wolf, whether there is one or isn't. But trust me it was a tough time for India this time. I live in Bangalore. And for the "2 weeks" you mention, there was severe Oxygen shortage in hospitals in most cities. Patients could not get beds in time. There were queues outside funeral homes and graveyards. It was hell. I am not the one to panic easily. And kept on going for my runs during the first wave in 2020, when Alpha was there. As the curve was so flat. Please note case numbers can't be compared, but you can compare positivity rate (positives/tested) and fatality chart[1]. The 2021 Delta wave in India was approximately 4 times severe by all measures. Because of the shortage of Hospital beds and Oxygen, many more people ended up dying than what normally would have. I know several of my relatives including a 42 year old strong built man who died (his O2 count was 30 unfortunately by the time he got to the Hospital). There are numerous fund raisers going on for people who died. In few cases both the parents dying. Yeah it was a short wave mercifully. But did a lot of damage. If you just search you can see images of bodies floating in rivers, as the people didn't have means to do last rites etc. Also the actual span felt like 6 weeks. There was panic as the curve was so steep, and it was spreading like wild fire from the the west (Maharastra/Gujarat) etc to the east. And the peaks at different places were at different times. So the period starting April beginning to May 20th or so was pure nightmare. Even if one was not affected by the virus. As thankfully in my family's case, there was this fear of not getting a hospital bed/Oxygen cylinder should there be a need. Overall, I agree UK looks much better thanks to being vaccinated. Although I would say, one needs to keep observing for another month, before making a call, and if by then the fatality curve remains flat, then we can call it a big success. PS: I got vaccinated after the wave. Only dose 1 yet. And ended up catching delta variant 2 weeks after that. Thankfully, a mild one. But I still wonder how I got it, as I remained very cautious through out. N=1, delta is very very contagious. But yes, if you are vaccinated, no need to worry too much. [1] https://www.covid19india.org/ https://www.covid19india.org/ (Look at the bottom most curve on the right hand side for positivity chart of the two waves) Edit: A point regarding fatality numbers in India in the 2nd wave. They were under reported by some multiple. There are various articles comparing total registered deaths during months of the 2nd wave in 2021 with previous years. And there is a sharp bump in the figures, which shows that fatality was severely under reported. Edit2: Now the same playbook is playing out in un-vaccinated Indonesia unfortunately, with Oxygen shortages and everything. I think, in another month when we compare how delta plays out in UK and Indonesia, we would have several answers to questions of effectiveness of vaccines etc.

by zpeti 5y ago

gonzo 5y ago

> even if the R rate is only marginally higher. R is an exponent. Small changes in an exponent lead to huge differences in the result.

zpeti 5y ago
How does that change my point? The article says the original variant had an R rate of 2.7, and delta had one between 4 and 9. That’s a big claim with no data. And thanks I understand how exponential works.

dharma1 5y ago

The test velocity has been fairly stable now for long enough to establish the delta variant R rate is significantly higher than with the previous variants. We are definitely doing more testing in the UK than a year ago and it’s likely reflected in the case stats, but at the same time the rate of case growth during the last few weeks looks like a straight line up and that’s not a good thing. We will likely see fewer hospitalisations than before due to a fairly successful vaccination effort, particularly with the edlerly, but as cases go up so does the number of people who may not die but end up with long covid. Also, the more people infected, the better breeding ground for the virus to develop new variants, and a higher chance of vaccine escape due to evolutionary pressure.

paulddraper 5y ago

Comparing case counts in 2020 was one of the dumbest things I've ever seen. It all depended on the availability of tests.

aws_ls 5y ago

> Also, wtf happened to cases in India? It’s not exactly all that catastrophic any more. In fact by the time the media had their 2 week India is dying narrative, cases declined. Media may cry wolf, whether there is one or isn't. But trust me it was a tough time for India this time. I live in Bangalore. And for the "2 weeks" you mention, there was severe Oxygen shortage in hospitals in most cities. Patients could not get beds in time. There were queues outside funeral homes and graveyards. It was hell. I am not the one to panic easily. And kept on going for my runs during the first wave in 2020, when Alpha was there. As the curve was so flat. Please note case numbers can't be compared, but you can compare positivity rate (positives/tested) and fatality chart[1]. The 2021 Delta wave in India was approximately 4 times severe by all measures. Because of the shortage of Hospital beds and Oxygen, many more people ended up dying than what normally would have. I know several of my relatives including a 42 year old strong built man who died (his O2 count was 30 unfortunately by the time he got to the Hospital). There are numerous fund raisers going on for people who died. In few cases both the parents dying. Yeah it was a short wave mercifully. But did a lot of damage. If you just search you can see images of bodies floating in rivers, as the people didn't have means to do last rites etc. Also the actual span felt like 6 weeks. There was panic as the curve was so steep, and it was spreading like wild fire from the the west (Maharastra/Gujarat) etc to the east. And the peaks at different places were at different times. So the period starting April beginning to May 20th or so was pure nightmare. Even if one was not affected by the virus. As thankfully in my family's case, there was this fear of not getting a hospital bed/Oxygen cylinder should there be a need. Overall, I agree UK looks much better thanks to being vaccinated. Although I would say, one needs to keep observing for another month, before making a call, and if by then the fatality curve remains flat, then we can call it a big success. PS: I got vaccinated after the wave. Only dose 1 yet. And ended up catching delta variant 2 weeks after that. Thankfully, a mild one. But I still wonder how I got it, as I remained very cautious through out. N=1, delta is very very contagious. But yes, if you are vaccinated, no need to worry too much. [1] https://www.covid19india.org/ https://www.covid19india.org/ (Look at the bottom most curve on the right hand side for positivity chart of the two waves) Edit: A point regarding fatality numbers in India in the 2nd wave. They were under reported by some multiple. There are various articles comparing total registered deaths during months of the 2nd wave in 2021 with previous years. And there is a sharp bump in the figures, which shows that fatality was severely under reported. Edit2: Now the same playbook is playing out in un-vaccinated Indonesia unfortunately, with Oxygen shortages and everything. I think, in another month when we compare how delta plays out in UK and Indonesia, we would have several answers to questions of effectiveness of vaccines etc.