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So the fact that we as world do a really bad job at vaccinating in countries with lower income will ultimately assure that new strains show up that are even mor

by herbst 5y ago

So the fact that we as world do a really bad job at vaccinating in countries with lower income will ultimately assure that new strains show up that are even more resistant against the vaccine? Is there any data if we are even fast enough? I mean some people are closer to their third shot than others getting their first in developing countries.

AndrewBissell 5y ago
> So the fact that we as world do a really bad job at vaccinating in countries with lower income will ultimately assure that new strains show up that are even more resistant against the vaccine? Exactly what would be the feasible logistical plan to put a shot in the arm of every single person on the entire planet at nearly the same time in order to (supposedly) forestall the evolution of new variants? Is there any historical precedent for this having been accomplished in the past with a virus as endemic as SARS-CoV-2? One which can also hide out and mutate in animal reservoirs?
- cma 5y ago
  It mutates at a much lower rate than flu. And despite that, flu shots sill make sense even with animal resevoirs, holdouts, etc.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    Do they completely eliminate influenza the way that it's being claimed the Covid vaccines would, if only uptake were high enough?
    - cma 5y ago
      Flu has about one base pair RNA mutation between each viral generation (cell to cell), coronavirus's with rna the length of the current one aren't possible without an error correction mechanism, and as a result of having that they have about only one base pair mutation between each host transmission (person to person). I don't know the answer to your question, but it seems much harder with flu due to more rapid variation.
standardUser 5y ago
That may be the least of our worries. In the wealthy countries that now have universal access to free vaccines, we're seeing large populations that can't crack 50% of people vaccinated. So, even if we had an infinite supply of vaccines we could beam down from space to anyone on the planet who wanted it, we'd still run into the problem of too many people not wanting it.
- msandford 5y ago
  What bums me out the most is that it doesn't seem like it's even ok to ask why some people don't seem to want it and to figure out if they can be convinced. I'm sure some folks have ideological opposition but it seems like a lot of the discussion is about how they're bad people for not doing what they're told to or supposed to want to. I don't feel like I have ever convinced anyone of anything by arguing to them that they're wrong. Most of the time when you change someone's mind it's by listening deeply and figuring out what they really mean or really want rather than what they're saying. I'm sure I've missed something important but I can't shake the feeling that the vaccine debate is just another battle in the growing war of political polarization.
- cmrdporcupine 5y ago
  Yep it's depressing here in Ontario -- while the overall vaccination rates are pretty good (nearing 70% of total pop for first dose and 50% for fully) the vaccination rates of people aged 12-39 are pretty bad at 68% for first dose and for 12-29 only 66% and the supply of vaccines is starting to pile up. Meanwhile 95% of seniors 70+ have been first dosed (and 82% fully). Basically young people aren't getting it at the same rate as the elderly, and not because it's not available. Daily first dose rates have plummeted as the supply has increased.
  - AndrewBissell 5y ago
    > Basically young people aren't getting it at the same rate as the elderly, and not because it's not available. Wow, it's as though they have an entirely different risk calculus from the elderly.

by herbst 5y ago

AndrewBissell 5y ago

> So the fact that we as world do a really bad job at vaccinating in countries with lower income will ultimately assure that new strains show up that are even more resistant against the vaccine? Exactly what would be the feasible logistical plan to put a shot in the arm of every single person on the entire planet at nearly the same time in order to (supposedly) forestall the evolution of new variants? Is there any historical precedent for this having been accomplished in the past with a virus as endemic as SARS-CoV-2? One which can also hide out and mutate in animal reservoirs?

cma 5y ago
It mutates at a much lower rate than flu. And despite that, flu shots sill make sense even with animal resevoirs, holdouts, etc.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  Do they completely eliminate influenza the way that it's being claimed the Covid vaccines would, if only uptake were high enough?
  - cma 5y ago
    Flu has about one base pair RNA mutation between each viral generation (cell to cell), coronavirus's with rna the length of the current one aren't possible without an error correction mechanism, and as a result of having that they have about only one base pair mutation between each host transmission (person to person). I don't know the answer to your question, but it seems much harder with flu due to more rapid variation.

standardUser 5y ago

That may be the least of our worries. In the wealthy countries that now have universal access to free vaccines, we're seeing large populations that can't crack 50% of people vaccinated. So, even if we had an infinite supply of vaccines we could beam down from space to anyone on the planet who wanted it, we'd still run into the problem of too many people not wanting it.

msandford 5y ago
What bums me out the most is that it doesn't seem like it's even ok to ask why some people don't seem to want it and to figure out if they can be convinced. I'm sure some folks have ideological opposition but it seems like a lot of the discussion is about how they're bad people for not doing what they're told to or supposed to want to. I don't feel like I have ever convinced anyone of anything by arguing to them that they're wrong. Most of the time when you change someone's mind it's by listening deeply and figuring out what they really mean or really want rather than what they're saying. I'm sure I've missed something important but I can't shake the feeling that the vaccine debate is just another battle in the growing war of political polarization.
cmrdporcupine 5y ago
Yep it's depressing here in Ontario -- while the overall vaccination rates are pretty good (nearing 70% of total pop for first dose and 50% for fully) the vaccination rates of people aged 12-39 are pretty bad at 68% for first dose and for 12-29 only 66% and the supply of vaccines is starting to pile up. Meanwhile 95% of seniors 70+ have been first dosed (and 82% fully). Basically young people aren't getting it at the same rate as the elderly, and not because it's not available. Daily first dose rates have plummeted as the supply has increased.
- AndrewBissell 5y ago
  > Basically young people aren't getting it at the same rate as the elderly, and not because it's not available. Wow, it's as though they have an entirely different risk calculus from the elderly.