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I'm a fully vaccinated Canadian, and it matters to me because the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so— and the longer it continue

I'm a fully vaccinated Canadian, and it matters to me because the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so— and the longer it continues to circulate the better a chance it has of evolving further and then us all having to go into lockdown and wait for another booster shot that specifically targets whatever the new vector is: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-princip...

dboshardy 5y ago
Yes, it will evolve further, but human ACE2 receptors aren't evolving rapidly within a generation any time soon. There's a metaphorical window of possible mutations that will allow SARSCov2 to bind to receptors and a huge swath of that window clearly is taken up by protection from vaccines (especially mRNA ones). There is a finite space in which it could still evolve _and_ evade vaccines. That space is likely _extremely_ small. "Too much" evolution renders it ineffective at infecting humans.
- mikepurvis 5y ago
  Do you have a reputable source which elaborates further on this discussion? My impression thus far is that few are willing to assert with the confidence you're displaying here that we're out of the woods once vaccinated. Indeed, Pfizer has announced that it is working on a booster that specifically targets Delta, so that says to me that there is very much still a concern here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing-a-covid-booster-shot-to-target-the-highly-transmissible-delta-variant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing...
djrogers 5y ago
> the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so What data are you looking at? Even the waist pessimistic data - Israel - shows the vaccine working at great effectiveness.
- mikepurvis 5y ago
  Fair fair, yeah perhaps "barely" is excessively dramatic— this is mostly just going from coverage like that in the Atlantic piece: > But even against Delta, full vaccination—with a heavy emphasis on full—is effective. Two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine are still 88 percent effective at preventing symptomatic Delta infections, according to a U.K. study, and 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalization. (A single dose, however, is only 33 percent effective at stopping symptomatic infection.) It's the "still" in there— basically that Pfizer effectiveness was 95% against OG COVID, and now thankfully it's "still" 88% against delta, but much lower than that and we're back to a place where the vaccine alone is not enough, it would only be able to work in conjunction with other measures like limiting contact.

dboshardy 5y ago

Yes, it will evolve further, but human ACE2 receptors aren't evolving rapidly within a generation any time soon. There's a metaphorical window of possible mutations that will allow SARSCov2 to bind to receptors and a huge swath of that window clearly is taken up by protection from vaccines (especially mRNA ones). There is a finite space in which it could still evolve _and_ evade vaccines. That space is likely _extremely_ small. "Too much" evolution renders it ineffective at infecting humans.

mikepurvis 5y ago
Do you have a reputable source which elaborates further on this discussion? My impression thus far is that few are willing to assert with the confidence you're displaying here that we're out of the woods once vaccinated. Indeed, Pfizer has announced that it is working on a booster that specifically targets Delta, so that says to me that there is very much still a concern here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing-a-covid-booster-shot-to-target-the-highly-transmissible-delta-variant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing...

djrogers 5y ago

> the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so What data are you looking at? Even the waist pessimistic data - Israel - shows the vaccine working at great effectiveness.

mikepurvis 5y ago
Fair fair, yeah perhaps "barely" is excessively dramatic— this is mostly just going from coverage like that in the Atlantic piece: > But even against Delta, full vaccination—with a heavy emphasis on full—is effective. Two doses of Pfizer’s vaccine are still 88 percent effective at preventing symptomatic Delta infections, according to a U.K. study, and 96 percent effective at preventing hospitalization. (A single dose, however, is only 33 percent effective at stopping symptomatic infection.) It's the "still" in there— basically that Pfizer effectiveness was 95% against OG COVID, and now thankfully it's "still" 88% against delta, but much lower than that and we're back to a place where the vaccine alone is not enough, it would only be able to work in conjunction with other measures like limiting contact.