4 ms·

I have to admit, I'm a little perplexed about all the discussion around the Delta variant. It almost feels like people are discussing this like it's a plot poin

by CPLX 5y ago

I have to admit, I'm a little perplexed about all the discussion around the Delta variant. It almost feels like people are discussing this like it's a plot point in a novel, a new looming threat that comes after Act II, rather than a cold scientific fact. As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. Also notable is that walk-in instant and free vaccinations are available everywhere in the city, I see signs all the time when walking around, so anyone (who's older than 12) who isn't vaccinated is making a clear choice. I really do get that other parts of the world don't fit this description, and that there's subtlety to this and it's complicated. Like I really get that. But what are articles like this trying to convey? They seem to be telling me that I should feel differently than I do now, and that I should take different actions than I am taking. But what are those arguments? What's the intent of writing an article like this? I see the takeaways section at the end but it doesn't feel like it matches the tone of the rest of the article, which seems to clearly imply that letting your guard down on COVID is a mistake. The first sentence sends that message clearly, saying "I don’t think people are paying enough attention to Delta". I disagree with that thesis statement, I think vaccinated people with no policy authority who are overwhelmed and often in mental crisis after a year of this shouldn't pay attention to Delta at all.

deleted 5y ago
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iamben 5y ago
I thought it was a very well put together article that summed up a lot of everything - especially if you were on the fence about getting jabbed. As a vaccinated person - exactly as he said, you probably don't need to worry: "If you’re vaccinated, you’re mostly safe, especially with mRNA vaccines. Keep your guard up for now, avoid events that might become super-spreaders, but you don’t need to worry much more than that." But maybe this is a good summary to send to those who aren't in your position yet?
deleted 5y ago
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ceejayoz 5y ago
> As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. The unfettered spread of variants in unvaccinated populations risks the rise of one that can evade your vaccine (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6527/329 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6527/329). In areas where a variant is spreading rapidly, it might not be a bad idea to voluntarily mask in indoor crowds.
enragedcacti 5y ago
If you’re vaccinated, you’re mostly safe, especially with mRNA vaccines. Keep your guard up for now, avoid events that might become super-spreaders, but you don’t need to worry much more than that. If you’re not vaccinated though, this is a much more dangerous time than March 2020. The transmission rate is higher than it used to be, and if you catch Delta, you’re much more likely to die—or get Long COVID. You should be extra careful, only hang out with other vaccinated people, and avoid dangerous events. You pretty much have it right. As a vaccinated person you probably don't have to take any different actions. You aren't the only person and for unvaxxed people this article might be what they needed to read or what their loved ones needed to read to try to convince them to get vaccinated.
- egeozcan 5y ago
  I got vaccinated with J&J and I should then freak out? I've been frantically searching for a source to definitely tell me if it makes sense to get a shot of mRNA based vaccine too to no avail.
  - matz1 5y ago
    No, you should not freak out even if you are not vaccinated. The overall risk for the unvaccinated are still very low.
- effie 5y ago
  > only hang out with other vaccinated people This is irrational. 1) According to available data, if you got vaccinated or pulled through COVID, you are well protected against severe COVID illness in future (cell immunity lasts for years). 2) You can get infected with variants both from vaccinated and unvaccinated people. You can't hide from unvaccinated people forever.
  - enragedcacti 5y ago
    only hang out with other vaccinated people I assumed this was a typo given that it was in the section addressing unvaccinated people. I believe he means to say that if you are unvaccinated your risk is lowered by only spending time with vaccinated people since the data shows that vaccinated people are considerably more protected from delta infection (although less so than earlier strains). That said, I wish more papers and studies would talk about rates for those who pulled through a previous strain of covid and how bad it was when discussing immunities rather than focusing only on vaxxed vs unvaxxed.
deleted 5y ago
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deleted 5y ago
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neogodless 5y ago
If you are vaccinated, you're helping. But is there anyone out there that is not you?
mikepurvis 5y ago
I'm a fully vaccinated Canadian, and it matters to me because the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so— and the longer it continues to circulate the better a chance it has of evolving further and then us all having to go into lockdown and wait for another booster shot that specifically targets whatever the new vector is: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-princip...
- dboshardy 5y ago
  Yes, it will evolve further, but human ACE2 receptors aren't evolving rapidly within a generation any time soon. There's a metaphorical window of possible mutations that will allow SARSCov2 to bind to receptors and a huge swath of that window clearly is taken up by protection from vaccines (especially mRNA ones). There is a finite space in which it could still evolve _and_ evade vaccines. That space is likely _extremely_ small. "Too much" evolution renders it ineffective at infecting humans.
  - mikepurvis 5y ago
    Do you have a reputable source which elaborates further on this discussion? My impression thus far is that few are willing to assert with the confidence you're displaying here that we're out of the woods once vaccinated. Indeed, Pfizer has announced that it is working on a booster that specifically targets Delta, so that says to me that there is very much still a concern here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing-a-covid-booster-shot-to-target-the-highly-transmissible-delta-variant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing...
- djrogers 5y ago
  > the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so What data are you looking at? Even the waist pessimistic data - Israel - shows the vaccine working at great effectiveness.
  - mikepurvis 5y ago
kokey 5y ago
I hear you and it's now inevitable that the news cycle will move beyond Delta soon as other variants take over from it. It's also inevitable that future dominant variants are going to be more resistant to the current vaccines as they evolve inside of vaccinated populations. That said, I think the article conveyed a lot of subtle but important points that some people miss in all the noise. One is that vaccination is increasingly important for protecting yourself regardless of the evolving situation and how many people around you do or don't get vaccinated. The other is that vaccines are unlikely to ever stop the spread of the virus but that's not a bad thing since we will be increasingly able to prevent deaths.
- bamboozled 5y ago
  > The other is that vaccines are unlikely to ever stop the spread of the virus but that's not a bad thing since we will be increasingly able to prevent deaths Letting it escape is not a bad thing? Are you kidding? Think of what the Flu costs the world each year, now this on top ? The only people who benefit from an escape are big pharmaceutical companies who will now sell you a 2 for 1 package, yearly flu shot and yearly Covid19 shot.
  - effie 5y ago
    I think he meant that eradicating COVID is a fool's errand like eradicating common cold or flu is, but it's not the end of the world because it will be like seasonal flu, dangerous only for elderly/sick people.
shusaku 5y ago
> anyone (who's older than 12) who isn't vaccinated is making a clear choice. I might push back slightly on this. some data on 538 I saw a month or so back seemed to suggest a significant gap in people who say they plan to get the vaccine and people who have. I think the dirty secret is that if you’re poor or living in a rural place, making time to get the vaccine is a challenge. There’s a reason why when J&J came out there was a lot of talk of deploying it in rural communities.
dragontamer 5y ago
> As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. No, you shouldn't be worried because you're vaccinated and living in an area of the country that's largely vaccinated. (Even if we don't reach herd immunity, 60% or 70% vaccination rates will protect you more than 30% vaccination rates). On the other hand: Arkansas has a 35% vaccination rate and is already spiking. There are large swaths of this country which have straight up refused to get vaccinated and they're about to get what's coming for them... The "Delta" storm has arrived on our shores. We've got one last good push (since it takes over a month to get vaccinated) before the Delta wave washes over our country. Its basically inevitable at this point (not even 70% or 80% vaccination rates will prevent the Delta-based pandemic), but we can at least vaccinate as many as possible to help mitigate the damage.

by CPLX 5y ago

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

iamben 5y ago

I thought it was a very well put together article that summed up a lot of everything - especially if you were on the fence about getting jabbed. As a vaccinated person - exactly as he said, you probably don't need to worry: "If you’re vaccinated, you’re mostly safe, especially with mRNA vaccines. Keep your guard up for now, avoid events that might become super-spreaders, but you don’t need to worry much more than that." But maybe this is a good summary to send to those who aren't in your position yet?

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

ceejayoz 5y ago

> As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. The unfettered spread of variants in unvaccinated populations risks the rise of one that can evade your vaccine (https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6527/329 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6527/329). In areas where a variant is spreading rapidly, it might not be a bad idea to voluntarily mask in indoor crowds.

enragedcacti 5y ago

If you’re vaccinated, you’re mostly safe, especially with mRNA vaccines. Keep your guard up for now, avoid events that might become super-spreaders, but you don’t need to worry much more than that. If you’re not vaccinated though, this is a much more dangerous time than March 2020. The transmission rate is higher than it used to be, and if you catch Delta, you’re much more likely to die—or get Long COVID. You should be extra careful, only hang out with other vaccinated people, and avoid dangerous events. You pretty much have it right. As a vaccinated person you probably don't have to take any different actions. You aren't the only person and for unvaxxed people this article might be what they needed to read or what their loved ones needed to read to try to convince them to get vaccinated.

egeozcan 5y ago
I got vaccinated with J&J and I should then freak out? I've been frantically searching for a source to definitely tell me if it makes sense to get a shot of mRNA based vaccine too to no avail.
- matz1 5y ago
  No, you should not freak out even if you are not vaccinated. The overall risk for the unvaccinated are still very low.
effie 5y ago
> only hang out with other vaccinated people This is irrational. 1) According to available data, if you got vaccinated or pulled through COVID, you are well protected against severe COVID illness in future (cell immunity lasts for years). 2) You can get infected with variants both from vaccinated and unvaccinated people. You can't hide from unvaccinated people forever.
- enragedcacti 5y ago
  only hang out with other vaccinated people I assumed this was a typo given that it was in the section addressing unvaccinated people. I believe he means to say that if you are unvaccinated your risk is lowered by only spending time with vaccinated people since the data shows that vaccinated people are considerably more protected from delta infection (although less so than earlier strains). That said, I wish more papers and studies would talk about rates for those who pulled through a previous strain of covid and how bad it was when discussing immunities rather than focusing only on vaxxed vs unvaxxed.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

neogodless 5y ago

If you are vaccinated, you're helping. But is there anyone out there that is not you?

mikepurvis 5y ago

I'm a fully vaccinated Canadian, and it matters to me because the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so— and the longer it continues to circulate the better a chance it has of evolving further and then us all having to go into lockdown and wait for another booster shot that specifically targets whatever the new vector is: https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-principles-now-define-pandemic/619336/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/07/3-princip...

dboshardy 5y ago
Yes, it will evolve further, but human ACE2 receptors aren't evolving rapidly within a generation any time soon. There's a metaphorical window of possible mutations that will allow SARSCov2 to bind to receptors and a huge swath of that window clearly is taken up by protection from vaccines (especially mRNA ones). There is a finite space in which it could still evolve _and_ evade vaccines. That space is likely _extremely_ small. "Too much" evolution renders it ineffective at infecting humans.
- mikepurvis 5y ago
  Do you have a reputable source which elaborates further on this discussion? My impression thus far is that few are willing to assert with the confidence you're displaying here that we're out of the woods once vaccinated. Indeed, Pfizer has announced that it is working on a booster that specifically targets Delta, so that says to me that there is very much still a concern here: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing-a-covid-booster-shot-to-target-the-highly-transmissible-delta-variant.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/pfizer-says-it-is-developing...
djrogers 5y ago
> the vaccines are effective against Delta, but seemingly only barely so What data are you looking at? Even the waist pessimistic data - Israel - shows the vaccine working at great effectiveness.
- mikepurvis 5y ago

kokey 5y ago

I hear you and it's now inevitable that the news cycle will move beyond Delta soon as other variants take over from it. It's also inevitable that future dominant variants are going to be more resistant to the current vaccines as they evolve inside of vaccinated populations. That said, I think the article conveyed a lot of subtle but important points that some people miss in all the noise. One is that vaccination is increasingly important for protecting yourself regardless of the evolving situation and how many people around you do or don't get vaccinated. The other is that vaccines are unlikely to ever stop the spread of the virus but that's not a bad thing since we will be increasingly able to prevent deaths.

bamboozled 5y ago
> The other is that vaccines are unlikely to ever stop the spread of the virus but that's not a bad thing since we will be increasingly able to prevent deaths Letting it escape is not a bad thing? Are you kidding? Think of what the Flu costs the world each year, now this on top ? The only people who benefit from an escape are big pharmaceutical companies who will now sell you a 2 for 1 package, yearly flu shot and yearly Covid19 shot.
- effie 5y ago
  I think he meant that eradicating COVID is a fool's errand like eradicating common cold or flu is, but it's not the end of the world because it will be like seasonal flu, dangerous only for elderly/sick people.

shusaku 5y ago

> anyone (who's older than 12) who isn't vaccinated is making a clear choice. I might push back slightly on this. some data on 538 I saw a month or so back seemed to suggest a significant gap in people who say they plan to get the vaccine and people who have. I think the dirty secret is that if you’re poor or living in a rural place, making time to get the vaccine is a challenge. There’s a reason why when J&J came out there was a lot of talk of deploying it in rural communities.

dragontamer 5y ago

> As someone who lives in New York and has been vaccinated for months, should I worry about this? It seems like the answer to that question is no, I shouldn't. No, you shouldn't be worried because you're vaccinated and living in an area of the country that's largely vaccinated. (Even if we don't reach herd immunity, 60% or 70% vaccination rates will protect you more than 30% vaccination rates). On the other hand: Arkansas has a 35% vaccination rate and is already spiking. There are large swaths of this country which have straight up refused to get vaccinated and they're about to get what's coming for them... The "Delta" storm has arrived on our shores. We've got one last good push (since it takes over a month to get vaccinated) before the Delta wave washes over our country. Its basically inevitable at this point (not even 70% or 80% vaccination rates will prevent the Delta-based pandemic), but we can at least vaccinate as many as possible to help mitigate the damage.