3 ms·

According to Wikipedia, this variant was first detected in India, in late 2020. If it's that much more infectious than other variants, where was it til now?

ceejayoz 5y ago
"If exponential growth is so fast, why did my two pennies only turn into four?"
EliRivers 5y ago
Its Wiki page shows where it has been since then; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Histo...
p410n3 5y ago
In india. Since most countries limit travel, it'll take longer to get around
oscardssmith 5y ago
Covid (original version) took several months to spread around the world without something public health measures to slow it down. The Delta variant took about the same time despite the fact that significant portions have a degree of immunity from the vaccines or previous exposure, and much less international travel.
pier25 5y ago
It's been in the UK news for some time now. In Mexico (where I live) we had the first Delta cases a couple of months ago. It is now the main variant and comprises 90% of sequenced samples (although Mexico doesn't sequence enough samples). https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX
brutos 5y ago
Assuming this is actually a genuine question: Here are the per country ratios of different VOC/VOI: https://covariants.org/per-country https://covariants.org/per-country It took a while until it became dominant in India, and then a similar pattern repeats in each new country.
herbst 5y ago
It's all over, and was all over the news early 2021 already. Not sure what you are talking about (Or which kind of media you consume to come to that conclusion)
raphlinus 5y ago
You're being downvoted, but that's actually a good question. An explanation that fits the fact is antigenic drift. A variant that's different but not necessarily that much worse will outcompete another variant in which the population has built up significant immunity. The difference in fitness doesn't need to be that large. If the virus truly had a massively larger R0 value, as is asserted in TFA, then you'd expect it to catch fire extremely quickly as soon as it starts showing up, and everywhere it is found. Ron Fouchier (see TWiV 777 as cited elsethread) certainly believes that these huge R0 values are not plausible, and that antigenic drift fits the observable facts better.

ceejayoz 5y ago

"If exponential growth is so fast, why did my two pennies only turn into four?"

EliRivers 5y ago

Its Wiki page shows where it has been since then; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#History https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Delta_variant#Histo...

p410n3 5y ago

In india. Since most countries limit travel, it'll take longer to get around

oscardssmith 5y ago

Covid (original version) took several months to spread around the world without something public health measures to slow it down. The Delta variant took about the same time despite the fact that significant portions have a degree of immunity from the vaccines or previous exposure, and much less international travel.

pier25 5y ago

It's been in the UK news for some time now. In Mexico (where I live) we had the first Delta cases a couple of months ago. It is now the main variant and comprises 90% of sequenced samples (although Mexico doesn't sequence enough samples). https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX https://outbreak.info/location-reports?loc=MEX

brutos 5y ago

Assuming this is actually a genuine question: Here are the per country ratios of different VOC/VOI: https://covariants.org/per-country https://covariants.org/per-country It took a while until it became dominant in India, and then a similar pattern repeats in each new country.

herbst 5y ago

It's all over, and was all over the news early 2021 already. Not sure what you are talking about (Or which kind of media you consume to come to that conclusion)

raphlinus 5y ago

You're being downvoted, but that's actually a good question. An explanation that fits the fact is antigenic drift. A variant that's different but not necessarily that much worse will outcompete another variant in which the population has built up significant immunity. The difference in fitness doesn't need to be that large. If the virus truly had a massively larger R0 value, as is asserted in TFA, then you'd expect it to catch fire extremely quickly as soon as it starts showing up, and everywhere it is found. Ron Fouchier (see TWiV 777 as cited elsethread) certainly believes that these huge R0 values are not plausible, and that antigenic drift fits the observable facts better.