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One quick thought that just occurred to me is that we are pinning this "transitory" narrative on the idea that the situation will probably improve in the partic
by kaycebasques 5y ago
One quick thought that just occurred to me is that we are pinning this "transitory" narrative on the idea that the situation will probably improve in the particular industries with currently exploding increases in inflation. E.g. used cars. But perhaps there will be a series of surprises where once the problem is solved in one industry, a new problem pops up in another industry. I.e. perhaps we get a series of rolling inflation explosions in different industries. E.g. I'm hearing a lot of macro investors going long on oil because they believe there is likely to be simultaneous increasing demand (China) and decreasing supply (ESG investors forcing oil companies to wind down). It seems like that could start to pick up steam once the used car situation is resolved.
- matthewdgreen 5y agoIt's entirely possible that we'll have a series of supply chain crises in the future, and nobody can rule that out. The question is whether blunt central bank interventions (raising interest rates, reducing the money supply) are the right solution to those problems. Typically the "do we need to worry about inflation?" question is actually (implicitly) a question about whether we need to change central bank policy.