The basic premise here seems to be along the lines of "The environment looks a bit like it did a couple of years before the bubble burst" and then a leap-of-fai

The basic premise here seems to be along the lines of "The environment looks a bit like it did a couple of years before the bubble burst" and then a leap-of-faith "...therefore you've got 2 years" I don't find the argument as laid out particularly convincing, though it's nice to have data to look at.