5 ms·

Forcing a few million extra doses to a bunch of western skeptics won't compensate the fact that there are billions of people that will never have access to the

Forcing a few million extra doses to a bunch of western skeptics won't compensate the fact that there are billions of people that will never have access to the vaccines. If it is true that only unvaccinated people generates new dangerous versions of the virus (which is completely false since leaky vaccines can cause enhanced versions of the virus), you will never be really protected, even if every western country makes it mandatory.

adriancr 5y ago
> there are billions of people that will never have access to the vaccines False. Pfizer alone will manufacture 2.5 billion doses this year, 3 billion next year. Considering EU/US already at 50-60% vacicnated, there are a lot of doses for the rest of the world. Moderna will likely have similar production. The other simpler ones even more. > If it is true that only unvaccinated people generates new dangerous versions of the virus You get infected, virus can mutate, it's that simple. > which is completely false since leaky vaccines can cause enhanced versions of the virus You do realize you are not on reddit or an anti-vax forum? If yes, please back up this statement with proper scientific sources. If in good faith, for your own well-being please get out of that conspiracy theory rabbit-hole
- codeflow2202 5y ago
  You are surprisingly optimistic. We have been a few months in the vaccination campaign and we are already in need of boosters to patch new strains. Even if the numbers you mention are true, you still have to deliver a product with extremely complex logistics in highly unreachable places (vaccinating westerners with our infrastructure is way easier than doing the same in Africa), hope that they will really deliver those numbers at that speed, and cross fingers that when this happens, the virus hasn't already mutated enough to make it obsolete. Consider also that many people in third world countries do not trust westerners so I would predict that the percentage of people that will avoid the jab might be much higher than what you have in the USA or EU. Anyway I am sorry I didn't share an article about what I mentioned, I thought it was known enough to not need an article. (I might say the same about your numbers) https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.13...
  - adriancr 5y ago
    > Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts. The journal you reference studies Marek's disease in chicken. The vaccine does not prevent transmission (which farmers found good enough). As such, all vaccinated chicken can get the virus but dont get sick and still transmit it. That is irrlevant since, its a study on chicken, with a vaccine that wouldn't be approved for humans. Also all vaccines stop transmission with 90-95% or less for poorer vaccines (you are 95% less likely to catch it) All the study shows is the need to vaccinate everyone and extinguish the virus same as polio before it evolves. As for numbers source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/biontech-pfizer-could-have-capacity-for-3-billion-doses-in-2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/biontech-... As for difficulty distributing vaccines in Africa. Where there's a need people will figure out a way.
    - codeflow2202 5y ago
      The fact that it's about chickens is irrelevant. This is about how viruses evolve when confronted with an immune system. But you are correct that the lower the transmission rate from vaccinated people, the lower the risk of enhanced viruses. But your 95% is debatable. The number goes drastically down depending on which vaccine you use, the new strains, and probably time. My point is that the myth that unvaccinated people are the part of the population creating enhanced variants is false. Before the vaccination propaganda started it was known to everyone that isolating the sick tends to forces the virus to evolve in less dangerous strains.
      - adriancr 5y ago
        > My point is that the myth that unvaccinated people are the part of the population creating enhanced variants is false. Incorrect. By logic, 95% (or whatever % you want) of the vaccinated population will not catch virus. As such, virus cannot evolve in them. Logical right? This is what they study says. > ... anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission ... The vaccines we have PREVENT transmission with various effectiveness. The vaccine in study did NOT. Since viruses could still infect vaccinated chicken, it evolved.

adriancr 5y ago

> there are billions of people that will never have access to the vaccines False. Pfizer alone will manufacture 2.5 billion doses this year, 3 billion next year. Considering EU/US already at 50-60% vacicnated, there are a lot of doses for the rest of the world. Moderna will likely have similar production. The other simpler ones even more. > If it is true that only unvaccinated people generates new dangerous versions of the virus You get infected, virus can mutate, it's that simple. > which is completely false since leaky vaccines can cause enhanced versions of the virus You do realize you are not on reddit or an anti-vax forum? If yes, please back up this statement with proper scientific sources. If in good faith, for your own well-being please get out of that conspiracy theory rabbit-hole

codeflow2202 5y ago
You are surprisingly optimistic. We have been a few months in the vaccination campaign and we are already in need of boosters to patch new strains. Even if the numbers you mention are true, you still have to deliver a product with extremely complex logistics in highly unreachable places (vaccinating westerners with our infrastructure is way easier than doing the same in Africa), hope that they will really deliver those numbers at that speed, and cross fingers that when this happens, the virus hasn't already mutated enough to make it obsolete. Consider also that many people in third world countries do not trust westerners so I would predict that the percentage of people that will avoid the jab might be much higher than what you have in the USA or EU. Anyway I am sorry I didn't share an article about what I mentioned, I thought it was known enough to not need an article. (I might say the same about your numbers) https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1002198 https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article/info:doi/10.13...
- adriancr 5y ago
  > Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts. The journal you reference studies Marek's disease in chicken. The vaccine does not prevent transmission (which farmers found good enough). As such, all vaccinated chicken can get the virus but dont get sick and still transmit it. That is irrlevant since, its a study on chicken, with a vaccine that wouldn't be approved for humans. Also all vaccines stop transmission with 90-95% or less for poorer vaccines (you are 95% less likely to catch it) All the study shows is the need to vaccinate everyone and extinguish the virus same as polio before it evolves. As for numbers source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/biontech-pfizer-could-have-capacity-for-3-billion-doses-in-2022 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-09/biontech-... As for difficulty distributing vaccines in Africa. Where there's a need people will figure out a way.
  - codeflow2202 5y ago
    The fact that it's about chickens is irrelevant. This is about how viruses evolve when confronted with an immune system. But you are correct that the lower the transmission rate from vaccinated people, the lower the risk of enhanced viruses. But your 95% is debatable. The number goes drastically down depending on which vaccine you use, the new strains, and probably time. My point is that the myth that unvaccinated people are the part of the population creating enhanced variants is false. Before the vaccination propaganda started it was known to everyone that isolating the sick tends to forces the virus to evolve in less dangerous strains.
    - adriancr 5y ago
      > My point is that the myth that unvaccinated people are the part of the population creating enhanced variants is false. Incorrect. By logic, 95% (or whatever % you want) of the vaccinated population will not catch virus. As such, virus cannot evolve in them. Logical right? This is what they study says. > ... anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission ... The vaccines we have PREVENT transmission with various effectiveness. The vaccine in study did NOT. Since viruses could still infect vaccinated chicken, it evolved.