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Looking at those charts, it looks like he could have claimed the same thing 2, 4, and 6 years ago and would have been wrong each time. Things never fell back t

Looking at those charts, it looks like he could have claimed the same thing 2, 4, and 6 years ago and would have been wrong each time. Things never fell back to the 1994 level. In fact, it looks like they didn't fall too far below where they're at now. I was a lot more worried about a tech bubble -before- I saw those charts.

amirmc 15y ago
Same here but the tables near the end of the post are interesting. What I take away from this is that if we are in some kind of bubble (inflated valuations etc), it's not like the one before.
ChuckMcM 15y ago
I read it and noted to myself the danger of looking at charts :-) People want to see patterns, so they see patterns. I find all the bubble analysis really interesting from a human psychology point of view. On the one hand, if it is a bubble and you're not part of it, your safe, be happy. On the other hand if its not a bubble and you're not part of it, your still safe, you will perhaps be less happy later when you realize what you missed but hey, that's how it goes. Markets have up and down cycles (booms and busts) which is why we have terms for investors like 'bear' and 'bull'. If this is a scary thing then do the safe thing, learn one or more trade skills, put your money in FDIC insured savings accounts, only buy real estate you are going to live in for 30 years or more, and don't spend more money per year than you earn. Pretty straight forward. I wonder if there was all this hand wringing and teeth gnashing in the 30's when the country was suffering through the Depression.
- maigret 15y ago
  And so many people mean it's a bubble, it can't be one. Real bubble are not seen by much people, except when they blast. Everyone knows the 2000 crash now. How many bubble repeated themselves in the same scenario in the modern history in a 10y timeframe?
  - maigret 15y ago
    I'd like to see some counter arguments against that. Please discuss instead of downvoting.

amirmc 15y ago

Same here but the tables near the end of the post are interesting. What I take away from this is that if we are in some kind of bubble (inflated valuations etc), it's not like the one before.

ChuckMcM 15y ago

I read it and noted to myself the danger of looking at charts :-) People want to see patterns, so they see patterns. I find all the bubble analysis really interesting from a human psychology point of view. On the one hand, if it is a bubble and you're not part of it, your safe, be happy. On the other hand if its not a bubble and you're not part of it, your still safe, you will perhaps be less happy later when you realize what you missed but hey, that's how it goes. Markets have up and down cycles (booms and busts) which is why we have terms for investors like 'bear' and 'bull'. If this is a scary thing then do the safe thing, learn one or more trade skills, put your money in FDIC insured savings accounts, only buy real estate you are going to live in for 30 years or more, and don't spend more money per year than you earn. Pretty straight forward. I wonder if there was all this hand wringing and teeth gnashing in the 30's when the country was suffering through the Depression.

maigret 15y ago
And so many people mean it's a bubble, it can't be one. Real bubble are not seen by much people, except when they blast. Everyone knows the 2000 crash now. How many bubble repeated themselves in the same scenario in the modern history in a 10y timeframe?
- maigret 15y ago
  I'd like to see some counter arguments against that. Please discuss instead of downvoting.