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New York State and California have lost enough population that they are likely to loose at least one representative in the house of representatives. This "too

by EricE 5y ago

New York State and California have lost enough population that they are likely to loose at least one representative in the house of representatives. This "too big to fail" argument is BS - they are failing and once cities start to go into death spirals they can accelerate in astonishing ways. And just to make things extra spicy, thanks to COVID job mobility has never been greater. This isn't your fathers economy. Any of these cities taking anyone for granted do so at their own peril. San Francisco's insane policy of supporting shoplifting up to $900 has caused Wallgreens to pull out entirely, Target closes at 6PM now - what do small businesses do where their only locations are in areas afflicted with these sane policies? When losses exceed revenue they go out of business. As if COVID wasn't bad enough :p

consumer451 5y ago
> … they are failing … Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.
- BrandonM 5y ago
  https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U-Haul-Ranks-50-States-By-Migration-Growth-22746/ https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U... > 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth ... Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually. ... California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...
  - not2b 5y ago
    Please correct me if I am wrong, but this appears to be a common mistake; they aren't reporting a per capita number, but a total number. When this happens, California will rank near-first (most of a good thing) or near-last (most of a bad thing) because it has the largest population.
    - BrandonM 5y ago
      Doesn’t the higher population affect both numbers? More UHauls are leaving CA than entering, even if both numbers are large. I think I see what you’re saying, that if you normalize per capita, they could be anywhere in the “net leaving” cohort. But it’s still a high number of UHauls going out for 5 years running. There might be other factors. Maybe people leave CA with more belongings than they arrive with. Maybe new CA jobs pay for relocation, then people eventually do a self-serve move out of CA. Still, I found it to be an interesting data point. The UHaul outflow date starting in 2016 corresponds to the SALT deduction reforms and the worsening annual fire conditions. Both seem like plausible “tipping point” factors to kick off an exodus, among other commonly cited issues.
woah 5y ago
The Walgreens shoplifting seems to be more of a problem for Republicans hundreds of miles away than it is for actual Walgreens locations in SF.
- busterarm 5y ago
  You mean the Walgreens locations that remain. Walgreens closed 17 stores in SF in the last 5 years. The on-the-record reason given for the closures, in statements to the city council, is petty theft. CVS is closing stores in similar numbers and has stated that SF is "one of the epicenters of organized retail crime". In many instances the stores security guards were physically assaulted.
  - pfranz 5y ago
    Last time I heard this discussed the number of closures over the past few years were in line with their national average.
    - busterarm 5y ago
      Yeah, but the overwhelming, landslide majority of their store closures are in poor areas. That's not SF.
  - dangus 5y ago
    I’m skeptical about this reasoning that the company supposedly provided. I don’t think we should assume that they’re under any obligation to tell us the truth about why they’re shutting locations. I think the real reason is “Amazon, Target, and dollar stores are eating our lunch.” Without the attached clinics and pharmacies I don’t think Walgreens/CVS have a strong business to begin with. This publicly-facing explanation puts all the blame on others, not their own store management. Not their understaffed, dumpy stores with high prices and bad products. Can you think of a single product category that Walgreens or CVS does better than its equally convenient competitors?
gamblor956 5y ago
California is a huge state. And led the US economy during COVID. And had the largest and fastest post-lockdown recovery. Oh, and during that time actually strengthened its position as the world's 5th largest economy. Yes, SF is having serious, self-inflicted issues. But SF/tech is actually a tiny portion of the CA GDP (since most tech revenue a la Apple doesn't actually get booked to CA). CA either leads the nation or is in the top 5 (states) for the following industries: movies, video games, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, aerospace, biotech, government contracting, and energy.
jonas21 5y ago
Both New York State and California grew in population between the 2010 and 2020 census (by 4.25% and 6.13%, respectively [1]). They will each lose a seat in the house because they grew less than the U.S. as a whole (7.35%) and due to rounding. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census
- esyir 5y ago
  Growing less than the average is pretty much shrinking though.
rm_-rf_slash 5y ago
New York’s population loss isn’t coming from downstate, it’s people leaving dying economies in the southern tier and north country and not coming back.

by EricE 5y ago

consumer451 5y ago

> … they are failing … Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.

BrandonM 5y ago
https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U-Haul-Ranks-50-States-By-Migration-Growth-22746/ https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U... > 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth ... Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually. ... California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...
- not2b 5y ago
  Please correct me if I am wrong, but this appears to be a common mistake; they aren't reporting a per capita number, but a total number. When this happens, California will rank near-first (most of a good thing) or near-last (most of a bad thing) because it has the largest population.
  - BrandonM 5y ago
    Doesn’t the higher population affect both numbers? More UHauls are leaving CA than entering, even if both numbers are large. I think I see what you’re saying, that if you normalize per capita, they could be anywhere in the “net leaving” cohort. But it’s still a high number of UHauls going out for 5 years running. There might be other factors. Maybe people leave CA with more belongings than they arrive with. Maybe new CA jobs pay for relocation, then people eventually do a self-serve move out of CA. Still, I found it to be an interesting data point. The UHaul outflow date starting in 2016 corresponds to the SALT deduction reforms and the worsening annual fire conditions. Both seem like plausible “tipping point” factors to kick off an exodus, among other commonly cited issues.

woah 5y ago

The Walgreens shoplifting seems to be more of a problem for Republicans hundreds of miles away than it is for actual Walgreens locations in SF.

busterarm 5y ago
You mean the Walgreens locations that remain. Walgreens closed 17 stores in SF in the last 5 years. The on-the-record reason given for the closures, in statements to the city council, is petty theft. CVS is closing stores in similar numbers and has stated that SF is "one of the epicenters of organized retail crime". In many instances the stores security guards were physically assaulted.
- pfranz 5y ago
  Last time I heard this discussed the number of closures over the past few years were in line with their national average.
  - busterarm 5y ago
    Yeah, but the overwhelming, landslide majority of their store closures are in poor areas. That's not SF.
- dangus 5y ago
  I’m skeptical about this reasoning that the company supposedly provided. I don’t think we should assume that they’re under any obligation to tell us the truth about why they’re shutting locations. I think the real reason is “Amazon, Target, and dollar stores are eating our lunch.” Without the attached clinics and pharmacies I don’t think Walgreens/CVS have a strong business to begin with. This publicly-facing explanation puts all the blame on others, not their own store management. Not their understaffed, dumpy stores with high prices and bad products. Can you think of a single product category that Walgreens or CVS does better than its equally convenient competitors?

gamblor956 5y ago

California is a huge state. And led the US economy during COVID. And had the largest and fastest post-lockdown recovery. Oh, and during that time actually strengthened its position as the world's 5th largest economy. Yes, SF is having serious, self-inflicted issues. But SF/tech is actually a tiny portion of the CA GDP (since most tech revenue a la Apple doesn't actually get booked to CA). CA either leads the nation or is in the top 5 (states) for the following industries: movies, video games, manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, aerospace, biotech, government contracting, and energy.

jonas21 5y ago

Both New York State and California grew in population between the 2010 and 2020 census (by 4.25% and 6.13%, respectively [1]). They will each lose a seat in the house because they grew less than the U.S. as a whole (7.35%) and due to rounding. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census

esyir 5y ago
Growing less than the average is pretty much shrinking though.

rm_-rf_slash 5y ago

New York’s population loss isn’t coming from downstate, it’s people leaving dying economies in the southern tier and north country and not coming back.