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I remember him saying in another video that NYC is going to become basically a ghost town in a couple decades if this kind of behavior from the government (alon

by warent 5y ago

I remember him saying in another video that NYC is going to become basically a ghost town in a couple decades if this kind of behavior from the government (along with its failure to fix the real estate problems) keeps up. It's curious to wonder if that is accurate. Only time will tell I suppose

philistine 5y ago
That's obnoxiously self-centered to say that if the city government doesn't fix your personal issues with it, one of the five biggest metro area in the world will become empty in decades. Sure, New York could lose the ability to maintain a vital and legal small business sector, but the city is not going anywhere. The worst that could happen is a period similar to the horrible 70s, with difficult finances and poor opportunities for people, until the city gets its head out of the sand.
- billytetrud 5y ago
  You seem to be massively misunderstanding what he meant by "basically a ghost town". All he meant is that lots of people will leave, opportunity will be reduced, etc. You seem to be taking it far too literally. And no, it's not obnoxious or self centered to say that if the NY government doesn't fix it's massive number of problems that bad things are going to happen. It seems pretty clear that's the case.
  - 71a54xd 5y ago
    Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. Safety is by far the biggest one. Chelsea is legitimately a dangerous place to walk around and I've lived in pretty seedy areas before, especially in college (where my neighbor was robbed at knife-point and my apt was broken into by heroin addicts multiple times). What he means is that the people who remain will be those who are too poor to leave. Whom will be slowly replaced by wealthier and wealthier transients. Which is sad, by far the worst kind of gentrification.
    - heavyset_go 5y ago
      > Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. You don't need any kind of net migration to do this, gentrification has already done it over the last 20 years. People who move there now don't care about that, though. They care about the city being Disneyland for rich people.
    - hguant 5y ago
      >The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. You're starting to see this in bits and pieces already. New rental space is primarily going to chain restaurants and box stores because the rent is too damn high for anyone not corporate to get started. _The Atlantic_ was talking about the issue of lots going vacant for months at a time because the owners are holding out for insane lease prices...in part because they need to pay insane taxes on the property. I love New York (in small doses) but it's not tenable as it exists right now.
      - addicted 5y ago
        All of this is wrong. Leaseholders are holding out for higher rents not because of taxes but because of property values and the corresponding loans they have. If they rent out something for a discount, it will read to a reevaluation of their entire property, which would then lead to them being underwater and impossible for them to borrow more money. This is true not just in New York but all of the US where property owners are heavily indebted and rely on debt to both grown and maintain their businesses. Having to default means that they basically can’t borrow anymore and can’t continue their businesses. It has nothing to do with taxes, which would drop if they rented out their property for less.
  - otterley 5y ago
    Using the right words is the responsibility of the person uttering them. Expecting others to read your mind is unrealistic. It’s better to say what you mean than expect others to figure it out.
    - billytetrud 5y ago
      Communication is a two way street dude. As a speaker, its your responsibility to consider your audience when encoding your thoughts as incredibly inefficient, verbose, and imprecise human language. As a listener, your responsibility is to consider the speaker and what they mean in their context. Its also your responsibility to clarify things that you think its possible that you have misunderstood. It is of course the speaker's responsibilty then to double check that you've understood things if they get the chance.
      - otterley 5y ago
        I think we should expect better use of vocabulary from the audience at HN, who tend to be better educated than the general population. Expecting people to say "people will become discouraged and leave" instead of "NY will become a ghost town" -- when the former is what they actually mean -- is not unreasonable. Sure, I will concede that it is the listener's responsibility to seek clarification when responding to an ambiguous statement or claim. But here, there was no ambiguity, just hyperbole. Hyperbole is used far more often here (and on the Internet in general) than it ought to be. We can, and should, have nuanced discourse here. Let's keep the bar high.
        billytetrud 5y ago
        I understood him perfectly well. Why didn't you? I think you should become more aware of your own flaws instead of blaming others.
        otterley 5y ago
        That's unnecessarily provocative. Check your insults at the door.
- EricE 5y ago
  New York State and California have lost enough population that they are likely to loose at least one representative in the house of representatives. This "too big to fail" argument is BS - they are failing and once cities start to go into death spirals they can accelerate in astonishing ways. And just to make things extra spicy, thanks to COVID job mobility has never been greater. This isn't your fathers economy. Any of these cities taking anyone for granted do so at their own peril. San Francisco's insane policy of supporting shoplifting up to $900 has caused Wallgreens to pull out entirely, Target closes at 6PM now - what do small businesses do where their only locations are in areas afflicted with these sane policies? When losses exceed revenue they go out of business. As if COVID wasn't bad enough :p
  - consumer451 5y ago
    > … they are failing … Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.
    - BrandonM 5y ago
      https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U-Haul-Ranks-50-States-By-Migration-Growth-22746/ https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U... > 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth ... Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually. ... California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...
      - not2b 5y ago
        Please correct me if I am wrong, but this appears to be a common mistake; they aren't reporting a per capita number, but a total number. When this happens, California will rank near-first (most of a good thing) or near-last (most of a bad thing) because it has the largest population.
- rabuse 5y ago
  Detroit is a prime example of failed industry, and horrible leadership.
71a54xd 5y ago
Yeah, I'm working remote for the current startup I work for (which used to have offices in NYC). Basically my deal was, I'm leaving until there's an office because my lease is up and I'm not signing a new one if there's no office. Because, why live in NYC in a box if there's no office (which I did for all of 2020). I've been interviewing and somewhat considering moving back to NYC for a nice pay bump, but even though I hate WFH I'm now considering cutting the process short and just looking for remote gigs. I'll miss my friends I made there, but prices are already going up and since I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well. I hate this because I did really like how easy it was to be social in NYC, even post covid. But idk, seems like an idiotic move given how shitty the trajectory still looks for the city.
- paulgb 5y ago
  > I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well I'm curious what you mean by this? Are you talking about gig-work side-gigs and the city is clamping down on that? I have my personal biases but I actually think the trajectory for the city is pretty positive. All the people who didn't actually want to live here can work remote jobs elsewhere, making room for people who want to have a world-class arts/food/entertainment/etc. scene at their doorstep. I know people who have left since the pandemic and people who have moved here, both groups seem happier for the change.
devwastaken 5y ago
As Louis has shown a number of store fronts have simply closed shop, and the landlords don't care to fill the spot. Some have just outright sold their buildings and they just sit there without occupancy for years. It's a very unnatural market that shoos away normal people that don't have a few million lying around. I don't believe NYC will ever become a "ghost town" but it certainly will look more like a pale grey image of brick and mortar where you just live in a box, go to the office, and repeat.

by warent 5y ago

philistine 5y ago

That's obnoxiously self-centered to say that if the city government doesn't fix your personal issues with it, one of the five biggest metro area in the world will become empty in decades. Sure, New York could lose the ability to maintain a vital and legal small business sector, but the city is not going anywhere. The worst that could happen is a period similar to the horrible 70s, with difficult finances and poor opportunities for people, until the city gets its head out of the sand.

billytetrud 5y ago
You seem to be massively misunderstanding what he meant by "basically a ghost town". All he meant is that lots of people will leave, opportunity will be reduced, etc. You seem to be taking it far too literally. And no, it's not obnoxious or self centered to say that if the NY government doesn't fix it's massive number of problems that bad things are going to happen. It seems pretty clear that's the case.
- 71a54xd 5y ago
  Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. Safety is by far the biggest one. Chelsea is legitimately a dangerous place to walk around and I've lived in pretty seedy areas before, especially in college (where my neighbor was robbed at knife-point and my apt was broken into by heroin addicts multiple times). What he means is that the people who remain will be those who are too poor to leave. Whom will be slowly replaced by wealthier and wealthier transients. Which is sad, by far the worst kind of gentrification.
  - heavyset_go 5y ago
    > Yep, what OP is getting at is that in time, as a side-effect of out-migration the cool things that draw people to NYC will start to slowly disappear entirely. The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. You don't need any kind of net migration to do this, gentrification has already done it over the last 20 years. People who move there now don't care about that, though. They care about the city being Disneyland for rich people.
  - hguant 5y ago
    >The small bakeries, the things that bring charm to neighborhoods all over the city. You're starting to see this in bits and pieces already. New rental space is primarily going to chain restaurants and box stores because the rent is too damn high for anyone not corporate to get started. _The Atlantic_ was talking about the issue of lots going vacant for months at a time because the owners are holding out for insane lease prices...in part because they need to pay insane taxes on the property. I love New York (in small doses) but it's not tenable as it exists right now.
    - addicted 5y ago
      All of this is wrong. Leaseholders are holding out for higher rents not because of taxes but because of property values and the corresponding loans they have. If they rent out something for a discount, it will read to a reevaluation of their entire property, which would then lead to them being underwater and impossible for them to borrow more money. This is true not just in New York but all of the US where property owners are heavily indebted and rely on debt to both grown and maintain their businesses. Having to default means that they basically can’t borrow anymore and can’t continue their businesses. It has nothing to do with taxes, which would drop if they rented out their property for less.
- otterley 5y ago
  Using the right words is the responsibility of the person uttering them. Expecting others to read your mind is unrealistic. It’s better to say what you mean than expect others to figure it out.
  - billytetrud 5y ago
    Communication is a two way street dude. As a speaker, its your responsibility to consider your audience when encoding your thoughts as incredibly inefficient, verbose, and imprecise human language. As a listener, your responsibility is to consider the speaker and what they mean in their context. Its also your responsibility to clarify things that you think its possible that you have misunderstood. It is of course the speaker's responsibilty then to double check that you've understood things if they get the chance.
    - otterley 5y ago
      I think we should expect better use of vocabulary from the audience at HN, who tend to be better educated than the general population. Expecting people to say "people will become discouraged and leave" instead of "NY will become a ghost town" -- when the former is what they actually mean -- is not unreasonable. Sure, I will concede that it is the listener's responsibility to seek clarification when responding to an ambiguous statement or claim. But here, there was no ambiguity, just hyperbole. Hyperbole is used far more often here (and on the Internet in general) than it ought to be. We can, and should, have nuanced discourse here. Let's keep the bar high.
      - billytetrud 5y ago
        I understood him perfectly well. Why didn't you? I think you should become more aware of your own flaws instead of blaming others.
        otterley 5y ago
        That's unnecessarily provocative. Check your insults at the door.
EricE 5y ago
New York State and California have lost enough population that they are likely to loose at least one representative in the house of representatives. This "too big to fail" argument is BS - they are failing and once cities start to go into death spirals they can accelerate in astonishing ways. And just to make things extra spicy, thanks to COVID job mobility has never been greater. This isn't your fathers economy. Any of these cities taking anyone for granted do so at their own peril. San Francisco's insane policy of supporting shoplifting up to $900 has caused Wallgreens to pull out entirely, Target closes at 6PM now - what do small businesses do where their only locations are in areas afflicted with these sane policies? When losses exceed revenue they go out of business. As if COVID wasn't bad enough :p
- consumer451 5y ago
  > … they are failing … Do you have the data for this? I just saw a story showing that CA flight is largely a talking point more than an actual phenomenon. Would love to see the numbers here.
  - BrandonM 5y ago
    https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U-Haul-Ranks-50-States-By-Migration-Growth-22746/ https://www.uhaul.com/Articles/About/2020-Migration-Trends-U... > 2020 Migration Trends: U-Haul Ranks 50 States by Migration Growth ... Growth states are calculated by the net gain of one-way U-Haul trucks entering a state versus leaving that state in a calendar year. Migration trends data is compiled from more than 2 million one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually. ... California ranks last by a wide margin, supplanting Illinois as the state with the greatest net loss of U-Haul trucks. California has ranked 48th or lower since 2016...
    - not2b 5y ago
      Please correct me if I am wrong, but this appears to be a common mistake; they aren't reporting a per capita number, but a total number. When this happens, California will rank near-first (most of a good thing) or near-last (most of a bad thing) because it has the largest population.
rabuse 5y ago
Detroit is a prime example of failed industry, and horrible leadership.

71a54xd 5y ago

Yeah, I'm working remote for the current startup I work for (which used to have offices in NYC). Basically my deal was, I'm leaving until there's an office because my lease is up and I'm not signing a new one if there's no office. Because, why live in NYC in a box if there's no office (which I did for all of 2020). I've been interviewing and somewhat considering moving back to NYC for a nice pay bump, but even though I hate WFH I'm now considering cutting the process short and just looking for remote gigs. I'll miss my friends I made there, but prices are already going up and since I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well. I hate this because I did really like how easy it was to be social in NYC, even post covid. But idk, seems like an idiotic move given how shitty the trajectory still looks for the city.

paulgb 5y ago
> I usually like to have side-gigs it's clear that NYC is going to make that difficult as well I'm curious what you mean by this? Are you talking about gig-work side-gigs and the city is clamping down on that? I have my personal biases but I actually think the trajectory for the city is pretty positive. All the people who didn't actually want to live here can work remote jobs elsewhere, making room for people who want to have a world-class arts/food/entertainment/etc. scene at their doorstep. I know people who have left since the pandemic and people who have moved here, both groups seem happier for the change.

devwastaken 5y ago

As Louis has shown a number of store fronts have simply closed shop, and the landlords don't care to fill the spot. Some have just outright sold their buildings and they just sit there without occupancy for years. It's a very unnatural market that shoos away normal people that don't have a few million lying around. I don't believe NYC will ever become a "ghost town" but it certainly will look more like a pale grey image of brick and mortar where you just live in a box, go to the office, and repeat.