In theory, every issuer will eventually default. Question is whether it is going to happen within the next 1, 5, 10 or 100 years. What I'd like to know is at l

In theory, every issuer will eventually default. Question is whether it is going to happen within the next 1, 5, 10 or 100 years. What I'd like to know is at least what is their estimated probability of default and the time horizon of this forecast e.g. "There's a X% chance that Greece will default within the next Y months." The CDS-implied probability of default (PD), as of July 8th, is roughly 41% within the next 12 months, 66% within the next 2 years, 93% within the next 5 and 100% within the next 10 years. So yeah, they're very likely to default soon(ish).