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The stacking of improbabilities is a head scratcher. 12 million vote increase over Obama with 300+ fewer counties. Must be wildly more popular. Yet was losing t

The stacking of improbabilities is a head scratcher. 12 million vote increase over Obama with 300+ fewer counties. Must be wildly more popular. Yet was losing the nomination of his own party. Can't 10k views on youtube, but somehow more black people turned out to vote for him in Detroit than Obama. I, like 40%+ of Americans have doubts about this Election.

dragonwriter 5y ago
> The stacking of improbabilities is a head scratcher. 12 million vote increase over Obama with 300+ fewer counties. Must be wildly more popular. Counties are a meaningless, nonuninform unit, and even if they were the exact same counties minus 300, so what? That just means bigger margins in the counties he won, which would be consistent with greater regional polarization. > Yet was losing the nomination of his own party. Biden was the clear winner much sooner in the process than Obama was. > more black people turned out to vote for him in Detroit than Obama. Why is it surprising that more black people turned out to vote against Trump than McCain? (That votes in a two-party system are quite often more against the oppoaing major party than really “for” the partt marked is well-known.)
ModernMech 5y ago
I just don't understand why you're focusing on the counties. Obama's win was over a decade ago. People move around and concentrate in cities. What would have been wildly improbable was Biden's opponent winning. The man was deeply unpopular, failed to win the popular vote twice, couldn't crack 50% approval for 4 years, was impeached, was being blamed for the terrible US government pandemic response, and had some of the deepest most consistent unpopular ratings of any president since that kind of sentiment has been tracked. Talk about stacking improbabilities. > I, like 40%+ of Americans have doubts about this Election. I can understand having some doubts after the election -- it was a very tumultuous time. But why do you still have doubts today? The dust has settled, the results have been looked at in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, and no systemic fraud was found. Just read this report by Michigan Republicans [1]. They earnestly looked at everything alleged and found nothing. Absolutely nothing. What exactly are you having doubts about except vague feelings of improbability related to counties? Improbable things do happen, yes? [1] https://misenategopcdn.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/99/doccuments/20210623/SMPO_2020ElectionReport_2.pdf https://misenategopcdn.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/99/doccume...

dragonwriter 5y ago

> The stacking of improbabilities is a head scratcher. 12 million vote increase over Obama with 300+ fewer counties. Must be wildly more popular. Counties are a meaningless, nonuninform unit, and even if they were the exact same counties minus 300, so what? That just means bigger margins in the counties he won, which would be consistent with greater regional polarization. > Yet was losing the nomination of his own party. Biden was the clear winner much sooner in the process than Obama was. > more black people turned out to vote for him in Detroit than Obama. Why is it surprising that more black people turned out to vote against Trump than McCain? (That votes in a two-party system are quite often more against the oppoaing major party than really “for” the partt marked is well-known.)

ModernMech 5y ago

I just don't understand why you're focusing on the counties. Obama's win was over a decade ago. People move around and concentrate in cities. What would have been wildly improbable was Biden's opponent winning. The man was deeply unpopular, failed to win the popular vote twice, couldn't crack 50% approval for 4 years, was impeached, was being blamed for the terrible US government pandemic response, and had some of the deepest most consistent unpopular ratings of any president since that kind of sentiment has been tracked. Talk about stacking improbabilities. > I, like 40%+ of Americans have doubts about this Election. I can understand having some doubts after the election -- it was a very tumultuous time. But why do you still have doubts today? The dust has settled, the results have been looked at in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona, and no systemic fraud was found. Just read this report by Michigan Republicans [1]. They earnestly looked at everything alleged and found nothing. Absolutely nothing. What exactly are you having doubts about except vague feelings of improbability related to counties? Improbable things do happen, yes? [1] https://misenategopcdn.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/99/doccuments/20210623/SMPO_2020ElectionReport_2.pdf https://misenategopcdn.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/99/doccume...