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New Study Says Climate Change Is Indeed Making Your Allergies Worse

jwuphysics 5y ago
Here is the actual article: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118 > We tested eight annual and seasonal climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, frost days, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in a mixed-effects model framework to account for city-to-city variation. We found that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of these four pollen metrics (P < 0.0001 for all metrics; Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Table S4). The full mixed-effects models explained 51–90% of the variance (i.e., conditional R^2) in pollen metrics, and mean annual temperature alone (i.e., marginal R^2) explained 14–37% of the variance in pollen metrics (SI Appendix, Figs. S4 and S5 and Table S4). Notably, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sometimes included in the group of the most parsimonious models, the variation explained was often quite low (e.g., annual integral R^2 marginal = 0.01). I'm not sure what I expected, but temperature fluctuations seem like a sensible primary driver of pollen count. Other variables that I think might be interesting include wind speed and relative humidity.
draz 5y ago
Does more pollen translate to more trees (in theory)? Is this earth’s way to fight global warming through an increase in vegetation?
- robbedpeter 5y ago
  Correlation is not causation. More co2 and favorable conditions lead to more vegetation. Large ecologies may have dynamic mechanisms that tend toward homeostasis, but the systems are chaotic and fundamentally unpredictable. That climate change produces one result or another is a secondary consequence of complex systems interacting. There is no earth thing "fighting" climate change.
- filoeleven 5y ago
  More pollen may translate to more fruits/seeds, which may translate to more saplings. The first step would require a corresponding increase in pollinators, but pollinators (mostly insects) have reportedly been declining for decades. I’m curious about the “amb a 1 allergen” which has been increasing according to a link in the article. Do we know what role it plays for the ragweed in reproduction, if any? What’s the advantage here?
Proven 5y ago
Misleading. They didn't prove that climate is changing. They only found that allergies are worse at higher temperatures. They didn't establish that average temperatures are rise and/or will to rise.

Here is the actual article: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/7/e2013284118 > We tested eight annual and seasonal climate variables, including temperature, precipitation, frost days, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations in a mixed-effects model framework to account for city-to-city variation. We found that mean annual temperature was the strongest predictor of these four pollen metrics (P < 0.0001 for all metrics; Fig. 2 and SI Appendix, Table S4). The full mixed-effects models explained 51–90% of the variance (i.e., conditional R^2) in pollen metrics, and mean annual temperature alone (i.e., marginal R^2) explained 14–37% of the variance in pollen metrics (SI Appendix, Figs. S4 and S5 and Table S4). Notably, while atmospheric CO2 concentrations were sometimes included in the group of the most parsimonious models, the variation explained was often quite low (e.g., annual integral R^2 marginal = 0.01). I'm not sure what I expected, but temperature fluctuations seem like a sensible primary driver of pollen count. Other variables that I think might be interesting include wind speed and relative humidity.

draz 5y ago

Does more pollen translate to more trees (in theory)? Is this earth’s way to fight global warming through an increase in vegetation?

robbedpeter 5y ago
Correlation is not causation. More co2 and favorable conditions lead to more vegetation. Large ecologies may have dynamic mechanisms that tend toward homeostasis, but the systems are chaotic and fundamentally unpredictable. That climate change produces one result or another is a secondary consequence of complex systems interacting. There is no earth thing "fighting" climate change.
filoeleven 5y ago
More pollen may translate to more fruits/seeds, which may translate to more saplings. The first step would require a corresponding increase in pollinators, but pollinators (mostly insects) have reportedly been declining for decades. I’m curious about the “amb a 1 allergen” which has been increasing according to a link in the article. Do we know what role it plays for the ragweed in reproduction, if any? What’s the advantage here?

Proven 5y ago

Misleading. They didn't prove that climate is changing. They only found that allergies are worse at higher temperatures. They didn't establish that average temperatures are rise and/or will to rise.