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> CSP (concentrated solar power) isn't on the same price reduction curve as photovoltaic solar though. Esp if one ignores storage costs. > But at grid scale

> CSP (concentrated solar power) isn't on the same price reduction curve as photovoltaic solar though. Esp if one ignores storage costs. > But at grid scale there are lots of options for storage. Agreed. > Pump solar is the obvious option. Disagree for CSP, but for hydro electric I'd agree.

Retric 5y ago
Battery storage is on a steeper price reduction curve than CSP. So, Batteries + PV is on a steeper cost reduction curve than CSP. The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve. What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green. But from a pure cost basis it’s extremely expensive.
- cinquemb 5y ago
  > The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve. Really? Any cost stats for that, I'd love to see that. From Lazard's 2018 [1] and 2020 [2] reports, PV+storage (and only 1-4 hours of storage) is still more expensive for "In-front-of the meter" on the low end compared to CSP for storage on LCOE basis, and 2.5x-4.4x more expensive on the low end, for "Behind-the-meter" applications. > What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green. And we can also cast light on the manufacturing process behind panels and how the materials are gathered for both panels and batteries… either way improvements are being made all around. [1] https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-o...
  - jeffbee 5y ago
    I can see that you are a big fan of solar thermal power, but how do you explain that nobody is building them? If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution. Currently there are numerous PV plants under construction and zero thermal plants in construction or even in planning, in California. Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it?
    - cinquemb 5y ago
      > If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution. People make the same textbook argument for "rational" actors in "markets"… as if all actors are "rational" or agree on what is "rational". As if everyone has access to the same information, as if everyone was equally invested in the same things, as if everyone wanted to protect the same things… > but how do you explain that nobody is building them? > Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it? "Nobody"[0][1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_stations#Under_construction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_st... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_stations#Announced https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_st...
      - jeffbee 5y ago
        The total of those two tables is dwarfed by the next table: cancelled projects.
        cinquemb 5y ago
        Not surprisingly, mostly those in the US… and all but one in of those in California (which is not exactly the paragon of innovation as it was in its heyday…) Luckily, that doesn't limit what other can explore and pursue :D Look, panels are great. I've used them in the past in certain applications (esp those that wont require any storage, or have 24/7 access to sunlight like in some regions in space, etc), but storage (1-4 hours? lol) costs are a joke compared CSP offering 24/7 and providing electricity 17.5 hours without direct solar radiation[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Dominador_Solar_Thermal_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Dominador_Solar_Thermal_...
    - nickik 5y ago
      As for why nobody is building them. I would just point out that nobody is really building full solar with storage either. That is starting but barley happening. Utilities need to hit install some renewables and setting up some solar is easy. There likely is already a gas peaker somewhere so no need for storage. I have not studied CSP in any detail so I can't say, but the reality is rational market actor in the current system does not optimize now for what the theoretical best solution is in 2040. They just need to hit their renewable quotas right now.

Retric 5y ago

Battery storage is on a steeper price reduction curve than CSP. So, Batteries + PV is on a steeper cost reduction curve than CSP. The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve. What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green. But from a pure cost basis it’s extremely expensive.

cinquemb 5y ago
> The cost of tracking PV + batteries is already cheaper than CSP when fitted to the current demand curve. Really? Any cost stats for that, I'd love to see that. From Lazard's 2018 [1] and 2020 [2] reports, PV+storage (and only 1-4 hours of storage) is still more expensive for "In-front-of the meter" on the low end compared to CSP for storage on LCOE basis, and 2.5x-4.4x more expensive on the low end, for "Behind-the-meter" applications. > What’s kept CSP limping along is you can use natural gas to supplement CSP while calling the project green. And we can also cast light on the manufacturing process behind panels and how the materials are gathered for both panels and batteries… either way improvements are being made all around. [1] https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o... [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-o...
- jeffbee 5y ago
  I can see that you are a big fan of solar thermal power, but how do you explain that nobody is building them? If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution. Currently there are numerous PV plants under construction and zero thermal plants in construction or even in planning, in California. Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it?
  - cinquemb 5y ago
    > If utility generators are rational actors they will pick the best solution. People make the same textbook argument for "rational" actors in "markets"… as if all actors are "rational" or agree on what is "rational". As if everyone has access to the same information, as if everyone was equally invested in the same things, as if everyone wanted to protect the same things… > but how do you explain that nobody is building them? > Globally, solar thermal has almost come to a complete stop. So, how do you rationalize that it's a great technology but nobody wants it? "Nobody"[0][1] [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_stations#Under_construction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_st... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_stations#Announced https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_solar_thermal_power_st...
    - jeffbee 5y ago
      The total of those two tables is dwarfed by the next table: cancelled projects.
      - cinquemb 5y ago
        Not surprisingly, mostly those in the US… and all but one in of those in California (which is not exactly the paragon of innovation as it was in its heyday…) Luckily, that doesn't limit what other can explore and pursue :D Look, panels are great. I've used them in the past in certain applications (esp those that wont require any storage, or have 24/7 access to sunlight like in some regions in space, etc), but storage (1-4 hours? lol) costs are a joke compared CSP offering 24/7 and providing electricity 17.5 hours without direct solar radiation[0]. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Dominador_Solar_Thermal_Plant https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cerro_Dominador_Solar_Thermal_...
  - nickik 5y ago
    As for why nobody is building them. I would just point out that nobody is really building full solar with storage either. That is starting but barley happening. Utilities need to hit install some renewables and setting up some solar is easy. There likely is already a gas peaker somewhere so no need for storage. I have not studied CSP in any detail so I can't say, but the reality is rational market actor in the current system does not optimize now for what the theoretical best solution is in 2040. They just need to hit their renewable quotas right now.