6 ms·

PV with Li storage isnt!

nl 5y ago
Li storage is currently only really used for grid stability style installations at the gird-scale level (ie, as an alternative to gas-peaker plants). Li is convenient for residential installations, but it's possible other batteries are better at industrial and grid scale. Lazard's latest (2020) levelized energy cost comparison[1] shows the unsubsidised cost comparing like this: Nuclear: $129-$198 MWh (1st chart) Solar Wholesale PV + Storage: $188-$329 MWh. This excludes the (huge) further price reductions in PV noted in the linked article. The wholesale solar does include flow batteries as well as Li storage. The whole storage report[2] is worth reading[2]. [1] https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2020/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-o...
- hulitu 5y ago
  For solar you need sun. I live in a region where the sun does not shine so often.
  - cinquemb 5y ago
    Yeah, but you probably have roads, rail, and ports. It wouldn't be impossible to move vats of molten salt at scale to different locations from collection for usage via HEX and typical Rankine power cycle systems (i.e. steam).
    - CyberDildonics 5y ago
      You think it would be efficient to move vats of molten salt on railroads "at scale" (at what scale?). Where does that expectation come from? Here is a very efficient method for moving power: a copper cable.
      - cinquemb 5y ago
        > Here is a very efficient method for moving power: a copper cable. Right, texas natgas producers should just run a copper cable directly to places like Singapore!
        CyberDildonics 5y ago
        I have no idea what you are trying to say. Were you talking about shipping molten salt using railroads from texas to singapore "at scale", because I'm not super convinced that would work.
        cinquemb 5y ago
        > because I'm not super convinced that would work. I think its because you missed > ports Other energy products are shipped on tankers: CL, NG. Once they arrive at a certain country, they can be disbursed over roads and rail to plants; CI and residential alike.
        VBprogrammer 5y ago
        I haven't run the numbers but if I had to guess molten salt likely has an energy density a 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than CNG.
        cinquemb 5y ago
        22 MJ/liter for LNG, ~9.1 for CNG MJ/liter [0] Molten salt will vary depending on its heat capacity and delta_k above freezing point. 0.338048298841 MJ/liter for the typical NaNO3 KNO3 NaNO2 mixture (assuming a delta_k of ~300) 53.356955169699994 MJ/liter for something like CaCl2 45.5682%, MgCl2 54.4318% (Ionic halide, assuming a delta_k of ~1568) In the future I expect even higher delta_k for molten salts. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas#Specific_energy_content_and_energy_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas#Specific...
- cinquemb 5y ago
  > Li storage is currently only really used for grid stability style installations at the gird-scale level (ie, as an alternative to gas-peaker plants). Yeah, in the latest Lazard's: "Lithium-ion chemistries continue to be the dominant storage technology for short-duration applications (i.e., 1 – 4 hours)," The last one I talked about on hn with someone else last year [1] was from 2018 [2] and the costs in this once for PV and PV + storage seem in line with that (or more expensive in the new report at the high end, but this new report only really covers PV and not anything else like the 2018 one, but at least this one really breaks down the storage). Their nuclear costs then were $112-$189, and their solar thermal tower + storage were $98-$181 (I'm assuming 2021 costs would be lower here from all the low cost stuff that has came online since, but haven't seen a high level report yet). Baseload (which i think nuclear really falls and I think what they would consider BTM? but maybe theres a whole sale market for it? hard to really tell with their storage definition capping out at 4 hours) still seems far away: "The economic proposition of C&I behind-the-meter (“BTM”) projects remains challenged without subsidies", ranging from $214-$292 for C&I (no storage), $392-$507 (PV + storage), and $489-$662 for residential (PV + storage)) > This excludes the (huge) further price reductions in PV noted in the linked article. Not sure we can consider panel costs (Perovskite, Bi-facial Panels, Doped Polysilicon and Bigger Wafers, Better Cells) speaking for storage costs, and the article really seems to be addressing panel costs. Though improvements in panels are always great. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23588691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23588691 [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o...
  - nl 5y ago
    I think long range UHV transmission plus wind/PV Solar is the real challenge for other baseload technologies. Projects like the proposed 4500km Australia-SG link[1] mean you get a lot of flexibility to build supply in places different to where the demand is. That solves a lot of the baseload issues. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93ASEAN_Power_Link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93ASEAN_Power_...
    - cinquemb 5y ago
- nickik 5y ago
  Flow battery are fantasy right now. No company is actually close. Liquid Air or Liquid Metal batteries maybe. However I would argue LFP based Li battery will likely win the cost battle for quite a while. And we are getting to a point in their scale where they are actually quite relevant for large storage. Li production capacity has come a long way since Tesla battery in Australia.
  - nl 5y ago
    Flow batteries aren't a fantasy. RedFlow is shipping them now and has multiple large sites powered by them. I worked in the same building as them some years back, and they installed backup for the solar system in around 2016 there.
    - nickik 5y ago
      Maybe not fantasy. But we are far away from series large scale flow battery for grid storage. Some of the companies who wanted to build large scale flow batteries have had a lot of problems in the last decade and very few to non have managed to do it. RedFlow seems to have some aspiration for grid scale but it seems to just assemblies of smaller batteries, rather then what most companies hope a flow battery for the grid to look like.
      - nl 5y ago
        Aren't all grid scale batteries assemblies of smaller ones? Li ones certainly are! There are lots of advantages to smaller batteries and few (no?) disadvantages. I've never heard that being brought up before.
        nickik 5y ago
        Well, not many of the flow batteries. The whole main concept why so many people think flow batteries are so awesome for gird storage is that you can basically have a tank size can scale arbitrary. The once that actually have some reasonably big pilot are Vanadium redox battery. There are multiple such batteries being developed. There are also a number of startups who try these flow batteries but try to move away from Vanadium. Li-Ion batteries are collapsing in price so fast, that they have killed of many of these ideas, like the Zebra battery. So newer startups are looking at something cheaper. But the approach of scaling many smaller ones might still work, it just basically defeats the main benefit of flow batteries in the first place.

nl 5y ago

Li storage is currently only really used for grid stability style installations at the gird-scale level (ie, as an alternative to gas-peaker plants). Li is convenient for residential installations, but it's possible other batteries are better at industrial and grid scale. Lazard's latest (2020) levelized energy cost comparison[1] shows the unsubsidised cost comparing like this: Nuclear: $129-$198 MWh (1st chart) Solar Wholesale PV + Storage: $188-$329 MWh. This excludes the (huge) further price reductions in PV noted in the linked article. The wholesale solar does include flow batteries as well as Li storage. The whole storage report[2] is worth reading[2]. [1] https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-and-levelized-cost-of-storage-2020/ https://www.lazard.com/perspective/levelized-cost-of-energy-... [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-of-storage-version-60-vf2.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/451566/lazards-levelized-cost-o...

hulitu 5y ago
For solar you need sun. I live in a region where the sun does not shine so often.
- cinquemb 5y ago
  Yeah, but you probably have roads, rail, and ports. It wouldn't be impossible to move vats of molten salt at scale to different locations from collection for usage via HEX and typical Rankine power cycle systems (i.e. steam).
  - CyberDildonics 5y ago
    You think it would be efficient to move vats of molten salt on railroads "at scale" (at what scale?). Where does that expectation come from? Here is a very efficient method for moving power: a copper cable.
    - cinquemb 5y ago
      > Here is a very efficient method for moving power: a copper cable. Right, texas natgas producers should just run a copper cable directly to places like Singapore!
      - CyberDildonics 5y ago
        I have no idea what you are trying to say. Were you talking about shipping molten salt using railroads from texas to singapore "at scale", because I'm not super convinced that would work.
        cinquemb 5y ago
        > because I'm not super convinced that would work. I think its because you missed > ports Other energy products are shipped on tankers: CL, NG. Once they arrive at a certain country, they can be disbursed over roads and rail to plants; CI and residential alike.
        VBprogrammer 5y ago
        I haven't run the numbers but if I had to guess molten salt likely has an energy density a 1-2 orders of magnitude lower than CNG.
        cinquemb 5y ago
        22 MJ/liter for LNG, ~9.1 for CNG MJ/liter [0] Molten salt will vary depending on its heat capacity and delta_k above freezing point. 0.338048298841 MJ/liter for the typical NaNO3 KNO3 NaNO2 mixture (assuming a delta_k of ~300) 53.356955169699994 MJ/liter for something like CaCl2 45.5682%, MgCl2 54.4318% (Ionic halide, assuming a delta_k of ~1568) In the future I expect even higher delta_k for molten salts. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas#Specific_energy_content_and_energy_density https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liquefied_natural_gas#Specific...
cinquemb 5y ago
> Li storage is currently only really used for grid stability style installations at the gird-scale level (ie, as an alternative to gas-peaker plants). Yeah, in the latest Lazard's: "Lithium-ion chemistries continue to be the dominant storage technology for short-duration applications (i.e., 1 – 4 hours)," The last one I talked about on hn with someone else last year [1] was from 2018 [2] and the costs in this once for PV and PV + storage seem in line with that (or more expensive in the new report at the high end, but this new report only really covers PV and not anything else like the 2018 one, but at least this one really breaks down the storage). Their nuclear costs then were $112-$189, and their solar thermal tower + storage were $98-$181 (I'm assuming 2021 costs would be lower here from all the low cost stuff that has came online since, but haven't seen a high level report yet). Baseload (which i think nuclear really falls and I think what they would consider BTM? but maybe theres a whole sale market for it? hard to really tell with their storage definition capping out at 4 hours) still seems far away: "The economic proposition of C&I behind-the-meter (“BTM”) projects remains challenged without subsidies", ranging from $214-$292 for C&I (no storage), $392-$507 (PV + storage), and $489-$662 for residential (PV + storage)) > This excludes the (huge) further price reductions in PV noted in the linked article. Not sure we can consider panel costs (Perovskite, Bi-facial Panels, Doped Polysilicon and Bigger Wafers, Better Cells) speaking for storage costs, and the article really seems to be addressing panel costs. Though improvements in panels are always great. [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23588691 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23588691 [2] https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energy-version-120-vfinal.pdf https://www.lazard.com/media/450784/lazards-levelized-cost-o...
- nl 5y ago
  I think long range UHV transmission plus wind/PV Solar is the real challenge for other baseload technologies. Projects like the proposed 4500km Australia-SG link[1] mean you get a lot of flexibility to build supply in places different to where the demand is. That solves a lot of the baseload issues. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93ASEAN_Power_Link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australia%E2%80%93ASEAN_Power_...
  - cinquemb 5y ago
nickik 5y ago
Flow battery are fantasy right now. No company is actually close. Liquid Air or Liquid Metal batteries maybe. However I would argue LFP based Li battery will likely win the cost battle for quite a while. And we are getting to a point in their scale where they are actually quite relevant for large storage. Li production capacity has come a long way since Tesla battery in Australia.
- nl 5y ago
  Flow batteries aren't a fantasy. RedFlow is shipping them now and has multiple large sites powered by them. I worked in the same building as them some years back, and they installed backup for the solar system in around 2016 there.
  - nickik 5y ago
    Maybe not fantasy. But we are far away from series large scale flow battery for grid storage. Some of the companies who wanted to build large scale flow batteries have had a lot of problems in the last decade and very few to non have managed to do it. RedFlow seems to have some aspiration for grid scale but it seems to just assemblies of smaller batteries, rather then what most companies hope a flow battery for the grid to look like.
    - nl 5y ago
      Aren't all grid scale batteries assemblies of smaller ones? Li ones certainly are! There are lots of advantages to smaller batteries and few (no?) disadvantages. I've never heard that being brought up before.
      - nickik 5y ago
        Well, not many of the flow batteries. The whole main concept why so many people think flow batteries are so awesome for gird storage is that you can basically have a tank size can scale arbitrary. The once that actually have some reasonably big pilot are Vanadium redox battery. There are multiple such batteries being developed. There are also a number of startups who try these flow batteries but try to move away from Vanadium. Li-Ion batteries are collapsing in price so fast, that they have killed of many of these ideas, like the Zebra battery. So newer startups are looking at something cheaper. But the approach of scaling many smaller ones might still work, it just basically defeats the main benefit of flow batteries in the first place.