4 ms·

The difference is that in that trial they weren't looking at health outcomes. They were looking at people's blood and measuring antibodies. If it turns out tha

The difference is that in that trial they weren't looking at health outcomes. They were looking at people's blood and measuring antibodies. If it turns out that 25mg produces a small amount of antibodies - but that small amount is still more than enough to prevent the same number of hospitalizations that 100mg does - then it make sense to go with that. The dosage trials were only used to study the microbiology. Not the death/hospitalization outcomes.

makomk 5y ago
The risk is that even if that lower dose with a lower antibody response works fine with existing variants, it might not fare so well against future mutations. I think this has already happened to a certain extent with the currently circulating variants - vaccination programs that gave worse antibody responses fared OK against the original variant, but not so well against newer ones.
- handmodel 5y ago
  I think that is fair but I also find the status quo bias strange. If you think that variant changing is a bigger deal than getting them out fast what makes you so sure we shouldn't increase dosage another 50% or another booster? Right now it seems like the mRNA vaccines work fine and the variants are actually getting better at spreading but not killing.
  - mikem170 5y ago
    > the variants are actually getting better at spreading but not killing I've heard that this is not unexpected, that it's to a viruses advantage to not kill people. That would jive with the fact that the several already endemic coronaviruses are much less likely that sars-cov-2 to cause severe problems.
- Zevis 5y ago
  We don't need perfect immunity. Canada has shown that focusing on first doses over "full" immunity can work quite well at a population level. The flu vaccine is around 10-40% effective. Bu suddenly we pretend like if a vaccine doesn't give us 98% immunity, it's useless? Seriously?
  - wccrawford 5y ago
    I agree with what you're saying, and I noticed that trend earlier when people were talking about 70% vs 99% effective vaccines... But IMO, the flu vaccine is pretty useless. I've never had any confidence that it's actually doing anything for me or anyone I know. I notice no difference between years I get it and years I don't. And if the Covid vaccines were only providing 10-40% protection, this whole situation would be a lot worse.
  - graeme 5y ago
    As a Canadian, I’d caution against firm conclusions from our experience. I’m inclined to think first doses provide good protection, but cases collapsed last summer too despite a relaxing of NPIs. It is hard to overstate how much canadians are outside in summer vs. other seasons: * School is out, university is out * Air conditioning is comparatively rare. Or if present, unnecessary. People open their windows and doors instead. I’m typing this now with an open door with bug screen in front. * Drivers roll down their windows * People socialize outside in parks and backyards * The population tans all of a sudden, raising vitamin D levels. Normal respiratory virus spread collapses * Patios flourish at bars and restaurants. Often the inside is fairly empty. Window-walls open completely leaving restaurant/bar interiors open to the fresh air * Many offices and professions have summer holidays Then by mid September we hermetically seal ourselves inside and everyone gets sick once school is back. I’m cautiously optimistic we’re past needing lockdowns but it is still too soon to tell. Our summer had a powerful seasonal effect last year and seems to have this year too. (Past needing lockdowns = we’ll get enough new first and second doses in over summer while the season is on our side)

makomk 5y ago

The risk is that even if that lower dose with a lower antibody response works fine with existing variants, it might not fare so well against future mutations. I think this has already happened to a certain extent with the currently circulating variants - vaccination programs that gave worse antibody responses fared OK against the original variant, but not so well against newer ones.

handmodel 5y ago
I think that is fair but I also find the status quo bias strange. If you think that variant changing is a bigger deal than getting them out fast what makes you so sure we shouldn't increase dosage another 50% or another booster? Right now it seems like the mRNA vaccines work fine and the variants are actually getting better at spreading but not killing.
- mikem170 5y ago
  > the variants are actually getting better at spreading but not killing I've heard that this is not unexpected, that it's to a viruses advantage to not kill people. That would jive with the fact that the several already endemic coronaviruses are much less likely that sars-cov-2 to cause severe problems.
Zevis 5y ago
We don't need perfect immunity. Canada has shown that focusing on first doses over "full" immunity can work quite well at a population level. The flu vaccine is around 10-40% effective. Bu suddenly we pretend like if a vaccine doesn't give us 98% immunity, it's useless? Seriously?
- wccrawford 5y ago
  I agree with what you're saying, and I noticed that trend earlier when people were talking about 70% vs 99% effective vaccines... But IMO, the flu vaccine is pretty useless. I've never had any confidence that it's actually doing anything for me or anyone I know. I notice no difference between years I get it and years I don't. And if the Covid vaccines were only providing 10-40% protection, this whole situation would be a lot worse.
- graeme 5y ago
  As a Canadian, I’d caution against firm conclusions from our experience. I’m inclined to think first doses provide good protection, but cases collapsed last summer too despite a relaxing of NPIs. It is hard to overstate how much canadians are outside in summer vs. other seasons: * School is out, university is out * Air conditioning is comparatively rare. Or if present, unnecessary. People open their windows and doors instead. I’m typing this now with an open door with bug screen in front. * Drivers roll down their windows * People socialize outside in parks and backyards * The population tans all of a sudden, raising vitamin D levels. Normal respiratory virus spread collapses * Patios flourish at bars and restaurants. Often the inside is fairly empty. Window-walls open completely leaving restaurant/bar interiors open to the fresh air * Many offices and professions have summer holidays Then by mid September we hermetically seal ourselves inside and everyone gets sick once school is back. I’m cautiously optimistic we’re past needing lockdowns but it is still too soon to tell. Our summer had a powerful seasonal effect last year and seems to have this year too. (Past needing lockdowns = we’ll get enough new first and second doses in over summer while the season is on our side)