I think short- and long-term predictions are wrong in different ways. Short-term predictions often fail to come true, leading to the diagnosis of slowness. Long

I think short- and long-term predictions are wrong in different ways. Short-term predictions often fail to come true, leading to the diagnosis of slowness. Long-term predictions often fail to even come false, because the world has changed so much the prediction is no longer applicable. In these cases, change was faster than expected, but not in a way that settles the original point (often pertaining to progress or some other value judgement).