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This is great news for Africa which really needs vaccines right now. It's great that all this vaccine research is going on. But the inequality of access is a hu

This is great news for Africa which really needs vaccines right now. It's great that all this vaccine research is going on. But the inequality of access is a huge problem. Up to now Africa hasnt had a big wave of covid, but this 3rd wave has hit us really hard (and I know, Africa is not a country, I live in South Africa). What experts warned about might happen is happening now: because of insufficient vaccinations the Covid pandemic will stick around and mutate in poor countries.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
afavour 5y ago
This is one of the things that depresses me the most… rich countries don’t even need to be altruistic here. Be entirely selfish: send vaccines to worse off countries to cut down on the number of mutations that will inevitably arrive on your shores. The really depressing part is that the exact same logic applies to climate change, so I’m not exactly full of hope for the future right now.
- makomk 5y ago
  It doesn't matter whether your justification for why this should happen is altruism or selfishness, the same problem remains: a vaccination program of the scale and speed we've already seen is literally unprecedented, it's astounding that everyone managed this much, and yet even with that incredible effort there still aren't the doses to vaccinate the planet any time in the imminent future let alone the on-the-ground infrastructure to deliver them everywhere - and even the rich, developed countries with the best vaccine rollouts out there probably haven't reached herd immunity before new variants made that impractical or even impossible with the current vaccines. This isn't that remarkable. Previous attempts to deal with respiratory disease pandemics using vaccines have proved pretty futile, even though it is a standard part of pandemic planning.
  - oezi 5y ago
    I think the remarkable thing is that vaccine development and manufacturing is one of the smallest costs of the pandemic. For example the cost of a dose of Biontech Pfizer vaccine is roughly the same as the cost of getting a single antigen test performed in Germany (both roughly 20 EUR). With the variants/mutations it seems we should invest much more in vaccine capacity to avoid spending 2022 in another lockdown. > there still aren't the doses to vaccinate the planet any time in the imminent future let alone the on-the-ground infrastructure to deliver them everywhere I think the vaccinations campaigns everywhere (in the developed world at least) have shown that the infrastructure to vaccinate everyone is there if only we have enough supplies of vaccines.
    - oceanplexian 5y ago
      Half the worlds population lives on less than $5.50 per day. If you offered them 20 EUR they wouldn’t use it on a vaccine for a highly survivable disease (Compared to HIV, Malaria, and TB), they’d use it to buy food and water.
- searealist 5y ago
  mRNA vaccines have extreme cold storage requirements that make it very difficult to distribute to many places in the world.
  - unmole 5y ago
    According to EU guidelunes, the Pfizer vaccine can be stored for a month at normal refridgerator temperature.
  - Synaesthesia 5y ago
    It's not entirely impossible, I'm sure we would be fine with in in South Africa, and many African countries. Just need consistent power. But yes that is a hindrance.
- enaaem 5y ago
  It is not a matter of not willing to share, but a capacity problem. All production is fully bought up. Throwing more money at it won't increase the supply.
  - alsetmusic 5y ago
    > It is not a matter of not willing to share, but a capacity problem. All production is fully bought up. Throwing more money at it won't increase the supply. This is why we should suspend IP / patent protection and increase production.
    - prox 5y ago
      That has already happened I think, but creating a new pipeline is hard. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/covid-vaccines-what-is-patent-waiving-and-will-it-solve-the-global-shortage https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/covid-vaccines...
    - T-A 5y ago
      Suspending IP protection does nothing to increase production capacity.
    - jlmorton 5y ago
      Moderna has said for over a year that anyone is free to use their IP. Intellectual property has precisely zero to do with production capacity.
      - amluto 5y ago
        There’s IP and then there’s IP. If Moderna published their complete protocols, cell lines, etc and allowed any qualified manufacturer to pay $5k/hr to consult with Moderna experts on how exactly to manufacture the vaccine, I wonder if there would be more supply.
  - maxerickson 5y ago
    What is stopping us from linearly scaling mRNA vaccine production? If throwing money at it won't help, there should be specific answers to that question.
- csomar 5y ago
  It's not really about being rich but availability (at least at first). The vaccine costs between $3 and $20[1] which is accessible for most of the third-world and even in most countries in Africa. > so I’m not exactly full of hope for the future right now Don't be. The vaccine is being used as a political tool currently (Pfizer good, Sinovac bad, etc...) and to restrict/grant movement around countries. 1: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minister-accidentally-tweets-eus-covid-vaccine-price-list https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minist...
chitowneats 5y ago
The average age of death from covid is higher than the average life expectancy in the U.S. By and large Africa doesn't do mass testing the way the developed world does. No tests, no cases. Young population, very few deaths. Voila. No pandemic.
- andai 5y ago
  Interesting perspective, I hadn't considered the age pyramid. The median age in Kenya is 20.
  - chitowneats 5y ago
    It's also not just the age pyramid. In covid deaths occurring in the under 65 population, there is often a significant comorbidity that contributed to severe illness. Obesity, diabetes, etc, are at the top of that list. Africa by and large does not have the same health profile or concerns as Japan, the UK, or the U.S. None of this is to suggest that vaccines should not be distributed there. I think they should. What I'm questioning is if COVID-19 deserves to be even on, let's say, the top 10 list of problems facing Africa in 2021. Probably not.
    - NicoJuicy 5y ago
      You're completely ignoring long covid. You don't need to die from COVID-19 to experience health issues, even without previous issues.
      - chitowneats 5y ago
        Do you have any links to peer reviewed evidence of "long covid"? I haven't seen anything remotely convincing. But I am open to changing my mind.
        scotty79 5y ago
        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3 https://www.healtheuropa.eu/research-shows-long-covid-is-linked-to-alteration-in-immune-system/107521/ https://www.healtheuropa.eu/research-shows-long-covid-is-lin... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-research-shows-2-million-people-may-have-had-long-covid https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-research-shows-2-mill... https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/nihr-publishes-second-themed-review-on-long-covid/27232 https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/nihr-publishes-second-themed-rev... https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/06/20/study-documents-changes-in-brain-after-covid-19-infection/?sh=12ed9288403a https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/06/20/study-do... What exactly are you not convinced about?
sunstone 5y ago
The lack of cold chains in many parts of Africa will limit the places the vaccine can get to regardless of vaccine supply.
- chitowneats 5y ago
  Excellent point.

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

afavour 5y ago

This is one of the things that depresses me the most… rich countries don’t even need to be altruistic here. Be entirely selfish: send vaccines to worse off countries to cut down on the number of mutations that will inevitably arrive on your shores. The really depressing part is that the exact same logic applies to climate change, so I’m not exactly full of hope for the future right now.

makomk 5y ago
It doesn't matter whether your justification for why this should happen is altruism or selfishness, the same problem remains: a vaccination program of the scale and speed we've already seen is literally unprecedented, it's astounding that everyone managed this much, and yet even with that incredible effort there still aren't the doses to vaccinate the planet any time in the imminent future let alone the on-the-ground infrastructure to deliver them everywhere - and even the rich, developed countries with the best vaccine rollouts out there probably haven't reached herd immunity before new variants made that impractical or even impossible with the current vaccines. This isn't that remarkable. Previous attempts to deal with respiratory disease pandemics using vaccines have proved pretty futile, even though it is a standard part of pandemic planning.
- oezi 5y ago
  I think the remarkable thing is that vaccine development and manufacturing is one of the smallest costs of the pandemic. For example the cost of a dose of Biontech Pfizer vaccine is roughly the same as the cost of getting a single antigen test performed in Germany (both roughly 20 EUR). With the variants/mutations it seems we should invest much more in vaccine capacity to avoid spending 2022 in another lockdown. > there still aren't the doses to vaccinate the planet any time in the imminent future let alone the on-the-ground infrastructure to deliver them everywhere I think the vaccinations campaigns everywhere (in the developed world at least) have shown that the infrastructure to vaccinate everyone is there if only we have enough supplies of vaccines.
  - oceanplexian 5y ago
    Half the worlds population lives on less than $5.50 per day. If you offered them 20 EUR they wouldn’t use it on a vaccine for a highly survivable disease (Compared to HIV, Malaria, and TB), they’d use it to buy food and water.
searealist 5y ago
mRNA vaccines have extreme cold storage requirements that make it very difficult to distribute to many places in the world.
- unmole 5y ago
  According to EU guidelunes, the Pfizer vaccine can be stored for a month at normal refridgerator temperature.
- Synaesthesia 5y ago
  It's not entirely impossible, I'm sure we would be fine with in in South Africa, and many African countries. Just need consistent power. But yes that is a hindrance.
enaaem 5y ago
It is not a matter of not willing to share, but a capacity problem. All production is fully bought up. Throwing more money at it won't increase the supply.
- alsetmusic 5y ago
  > It is not a matter of not willing to share, but a capacity problem. All production is fully bought up. Throwing more money at it won't increase the supply. This is why we should suspend IP / patent protection and increase production.
  - prox 5y ago
    That has already happened I think, but creating a new pipeline is hard. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/covid-vaccines-what-is-patent-waiving-and-will-it-solve-the-global-shortage https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/covid-vaccines...
  - T-A 5y ago
    Suspending IP protection does nothing to increase production capacity.
  - jlmorton 5y ago
    Moderna has said for over a year that anyone is free to use their IP. Intellectual property has precisely zero to do with production capacity.
    - amluto 5y ago
      There’s IP and then there’s IP. If Moderna published their complete protocols, cell lines, etc and allowed any qualified manufacturer to pay $5k/hr to consult with Moderna experts on how exactly to manufacture the vaccine, I wonder if there would be more supply.
- maxerickson 5y ago
  What is stopping us from linearly scaling mRNA vaccine production? If throwing money at it won't help, there should be specific answers to that question.
csomar 5y ago
It's not really about being rich but availability (at least at first). The vaccine costs between $3 and $20[1] which is accessible for most of the third-world and even in most countries in Africa. > so I’m not exactly full of hope for the future right now Don't be. The vaccine is being used as a political tool currently (Pfizer good, Sinovac bad, etc...) and to restrict/grant movement around countries. 1: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minister-accidentally-tweets-eus-covid-vaccine-price-list https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/18/belgian-minist...

chitowneats 5y ago

The average age of death from covid is higher than the average life expectancy in the U.S. By and large Africa doesn't do mass testing the way the developed world does. No tests, no cases. Young population, very few deaths. Voila. No pandemic.

andai 5y ago
Interesting perspective, I hadn't considered the age pyramid. The median age in Kenya is 20.
- chitowneats 5y ago
  It's also not just the age pyramid. In covid deaths occurring in the under 65 population, there is often a significant comorbidity that contributed to severe illness. Obesity, diabetes, etc, are at the top of that list. Africa by and large does not have the same health profile or concerns as Japan, the UK, or the U.S. None of this is to suggest that vaccines should not be distributed there. I think they should. What I'm questioning is if COVID-19 deserves to be even on, let's say, the top 10 list of problems facing Africa in 2021. Probably not.
  - NicoJuicy 5y ago
    You're completely ignoring long covid. You don't need to die from COVID-19 to experience health issues, even without previous issues.
    - chitowneats 5y ago
      Do you have any links to peer reviewed evidence of "long covid"? I haven't seen anything remotely convincing. But I am open to changing my mind.
      - scotty79 5y ago
        https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3 https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01433-3 https://www.healtheuropa.eu/research-shows-long-covid-is-linked-to-alteration-in-immune-system/107521/ https://www.healtheuropa.eu/research-shows-long-covid-is-lin... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01283-z https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-research-shows-2-million-people-may-have-had-long-covid https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-research-shows-2-mill... https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/nihr-publishes-second-themed-review-on-long-covid/27232 https://www.nihr.ac.uk/news/nihr-publishes-second-themed-rev... https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/06/20/study-documents-changes-in-brain-after-covid-19-infection/?sh=12ed9288403a https://www.forbes.com/sites/ninashapiro/2021/06/20/study-do... What exactly are you not convinced about?

sunstone 5y ago

The lack of cold chains in many parts of Africa will limit the places the vaccine can get to regardless of vaccine supply.

chitowneats 5y ago
Excellent point.