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I hadn't considered this before reading your comments, but it makes sense that skilled trades will be somewhat automation proof, at least in the medium term.

Robotbeat 5y ago
In part because skilled trades already are fairly mechanized. Backhoes, skid-loaders, nail guns, power tools, etc. (And in general, I think mechanization is under-appreciated as a productivity enhancer compared to automation... Who is more productive moving something like gravel around, someone driving a 5 ton capacity dump truck or someone overseeing 100 gravel-moving drones with a capacity of 5 kilograms each? Even if the drones are essentially autonomous, the dump truck driver will be more productive in moving the material around because he's driving a big machine and the drones will need someone to manage them especially when there are problems. Or even compare 5 ton autonomous mining trucks with a 500 ton dump truck... the 500 tonner is gonna win. Larger scale machines are still a pretty straightforward way to improve productivity.)
- bandyaboot 5y ago
  Honest question. Why do your examples assume that the autonomous machine has to be smaller than the human operated version?
  - Robotbeat 5y ago
    Well there’s an argument that there’s not a lot gained by going fully autonomous for huge machines. These huge trucks are like $5 million apiece not including sensors and hardware and software for automation, and so hiring a human to operate them (or even just babysit them) for $20-30/hour (typical dump or coal truck operator wage) seems like a pretty obvious idea. Which doesn’t mean people aren’t automating mining trucks… they are! But there aren’t huge cost savings in terms of labor. I guess I’m just saying that scaling up your smaller machine to be larger has the same kind of productivity enhancements as switching your smaller machine to autonomous. It is also something humans have been doing ever since the development of domestic beasts of burden.
foolinaround 5y ago
Modular houses - where the fittings are made in the factory itself - is one kind of automation. I met a guy a few years ago who had a plumber role in one of those modular factories... he said he was paid lesser but he likened it to a 9-5 job in a factory, and was ok with the pay.
analog31 5y ago
But not recession proof. Also, the "automation" can happen gradually without making it look like it's affecting the trades. Thinking about plumbing, in my locale they've gone from sweated copper and iron drain piping, to plastic tubing that comes on a roll and is joined with some sort of tool that squeezes the fittings onto the tubing. Drain work is all PVC glued together. So the skilled labor content of plumbing a house has decreased over the years. Every house in my neighborhood has hardwood floors throughout -- it was cheap when the subdivision was built out, but laborious to install. Today, the same class of house would have carpeting or sheet flooring, costing a lot less to install. Other things like vinyl siding, Romex instead of hard conduit, etc.

Robotbeat 5y ago

In part because skilled trades already are fairly mechanized. Backhoes, skid-loaders, nail guns, power tools, etc. (And in general, I think mechanization is under-appreciated as a productivity enhancer compared to automation... Who is more productive moving something like gravel around, someone driving a 5 ton capacity dump truck or someone overseeing 100 gravel-moving drones with a capacity of 5 kilograms each? Even if the drones are essentially autonomous, the dump truck driver will be more productive in moving the material around because he's driving a big machine and the drones will need someone to manage them especially when there are problems. Or even compare 5 ton autonomous mining trucks with a 500 ton dump truck... the 500 tonner is gonna win. Larger scale machines are still a pretty straightforward way to improve productivity.)

bandyaboot 5y ago
Honest question. Why do your examples assume that the autonomous machine has to be smaller than the human operated version?
- Robotbeat 5y ago
  Well there’s an argument that there’s not a lot gained by going fully autonomous for huge machines. These huge trucks are like $5 million apiece not including sensors and hardware and software for automation, and so hiring a human to operate them (or even just babysit them) for $20-30/hour (typical dump or coal truck operator wage) seems like a pretty obvious idea. Which doesn’t mean people aren’t automating mining trucks… they are! But there aren’t huge cost savings in terms of labor. I guess I’m just saying that scaling up your smaller machine to be larger has the same kind of productivity enhancements as switching your smaller machine to autonomous. It is also something humans have been doing ever since the development of domestic beasts of burden.

foolinaround 5y ago

Modular houses - where the fittings are made in the factory itself - is one kind of automation. I met a guy a few years ago who had a plumber role in one of those modular factories... he said he was paid lesser but he likened it to a 9-5 job in a factory, and was ok with the pay.

analog31 5y ago

But not recession proof. Also, the "automation" can happen gradually without making it look like it's affecting the trades. Thinking about plumbing, in my locale they've gone from sweated copper and iron drain piping, to plastic tubing that comes on a roll and is joined with some sort of tool that squeezes the fittings onto the tubing. Drain work is all PVC glued together. So the skilled labor content of plumbing a house has decreased over the years. Every house in my neighborhood has hardwood floors throughout -- it was cheap when the subdivision was built out, but laborious to install. Today, the same class of house would have carpeting or sheet flooring, costing a lot less to install. Other things like vinyl siding, Romex instead of hard conduit, etc.