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I saw a similar quote from Asimov or Heinlein or the like, in the introduction to a science-fiction anthology in the eighties.
by AlexCoventry 5y ago
I saw a similar quote from Asimov or Heinlein or the like, in the introduction to a science-fiction anthology in the eighties.
- stevesimmons 5y agoMaybe quoting Roy Amara, a 1960s Stanford Computer scientist. He said "we overestimate the impact of technology in the short-term and underestimate the effect in the long run" [0]. I dimly remember similar sentiments in Arthur C. Clarke's Profiles of the Future (1662) [1], where he talked about "Hazards of Prophecy", where predictions suffered from either "failure of imagination" (predicted too little change) or "failure of nerve" (could/should have foreseen far reaching change, but chickened out and wrote down a watered-down version). As ACC said it "The failure of nerve seems to be the more common; it occurs when even given all the relevant facts the would-be prophet cannot see that they point to an inescapable conclusion." [0] https://fs.blog/2019/05/gates-law/ https://fs.blog/2019/05/gates-law/ [1] https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/12/26/arthur-c-clarke-about-predicting-technology/ https://fabiusmaximus.com/2017/12/26/arthur-c-clarke-about-p...