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I'm sorry, but duh? Is this controversial? Solar, wind and batteries are all now in the steep part of an S-curve and fundamentally have far stronger economics b
by xoa 5y ago
I'm sorry, but duh? Is this controversial? Solar, wind and batteries are all now in the steep part of an S-curve and fundamentally have far stronger economics behind them on Earth for the foreseeable future. They don't require special military risk materials or restrictions, the core materials are widely available and cheap, they have massive multiple use, both centralized and highly decentralized usage cases, capability for amortization across a huge range of industries as well as residential, etc etc etc. Just like we've seen so many times before, it is unlikely to even matter if other solutions have certain strengths in certain cases: sheer scaling leading to enormous R&D, capital investment and refining of implementations trumps somewhat better features nearly every time. Same reason hydrogen is total dead end, debates about its merits frankly don't even matter in the same way debates about POWER/PowerPC or MIPS or Alpha or whatever ISA's merits vs x86 didn't particularly matter. Even thermonuclear fusion is probably just plain too late at this point to have any critical impact on AGW.
Now, I strongly support both nuclear fission and fusion continuing to get development and investment, even if it needs to be government to do it. Fission has a lot of other non-energy very important use cases like medical or utility isotope mass production for which net energy production is a nice cherry on top. We'll also need nuclear power longer term for outer solar system exploration and development. Even in terms of pure power production, modular micronuclear could have a valuable role to play at latitudes near the poles or exotic situations.
But there shouldn't be any illusions about where the train in general is going. Solar and wind resources are so abundant they can cover all energy needs, storage and grid improvements are massively efficient and help everything anyway, and they've all got the market behind them. Tipping point passed awhile ago. That's that.
- pfdietz 5y ago> Same reason hydrogen is total dead end While hydrogen is overhyped for some applications (ground vehicles, heating), for some applications it may be essential (synthesis of ammonia and some other chemicals, reduction of iron ore to metal, seasonal grid energy storage.) So I would not call it a "total dead end".