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The planet's climate is a complex system, the state of which cannot be neatly summarized by any one statistic. I mean, there's a reputable school of thought pr
by cs702 5y ago
The planet's climate is a complex system, the state of which cannot be neatly summarized by any one statistic.
I mean, there's a reputable school of thought predicting that global warming will lead to another ice age, because higher temperatures disrupt ocean currents -- particularly the Gulf Stream, which redistributes warm water from the Gulf of Mexico to northern Europe. As the Gulf Stream makes its deposits of warm water along the coasts of Great Britain and northwest Europe, it keeps the temperatures in northwest Europe warmer than in eastern Canada, even though they both are roughly the same distance from the equator. The prediction is that, if Arctic ice melts as a result of global warming, huge amounts of fresh water will pour into the North Atlantic and slow down the Gulf Stream, cooling Europe, and triggering a feedback loop with colder and longer European winters, and more and more ice on the planet's surface.[a][b]
[a] The book "Ice Age" by Cambridge-trained astrophysicist John Gribbin and his wife Mary has a good high-level overview of this school of thought: https://reanimus.com/store/?item=1420 https://reanimus.com/store/?item=1420
[b] Recent studies of circulation in the North Atlantic already show a significant reduction in currents flowing north from the Gulf Stream: https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/09/new-studies-confirm-weakening-of-the-gulf-stream-circulation-amoc/ https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2020/09/new-s...
- chrisco255 5y agoWe're already in an ice age, and we have been for the last 1 million years. We're just in an interglacial period (for the past 12K years). We were always going to revert back to a glacial period. The belief is that CO2 concentration would prevent that, by causing global warming. Otherwise, if we revert to a glacial period, that is currently status quo for planet earth: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Glacial-Interglacial%20Cycles https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/abrupt-climate-change/Glacial-Inte...
- cs702 5y agoYes, we're in an interglacial period. You're absolutely right about that. The counter-intuitive prediction from this school of thought is that global warming would precipitate or accelerate glacial period within this ice age.