> Using current reality for future projections is inherently defective because of the innovation factor and routinely leads to bad predictions (such as peak oil

> Using current reality for future projections is inherently defective because of the innovation factor and routinely leads to bad predictions (such as peak oil[1]), but it's the only reality we have and is sadly as good as we're going to get. Anything else (such as say next-gen nuclear) has to be regarded as a fiction in the calculations until it actually exists. but are certain that at least one of these fictitious scenarios will come into being. We just have no certainty as to which.